The switch from Peyton Manning to Blake Bortles leaves Julius Thomas off some fantasy owners’ radars

In fantasy football, there is no more of a confusing position than tight end. No matter the source, fantasy football experts will tell you that the tight end position is one where the top tier of talent is very small, and everyone else is a gamble. While some teams are adopting college spread offenses and using athletic tight ends like wide receivers, many teams still utilize their tight ends as blockers who occasionally catch a pass. Unfortunately, athletic freaks like Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham are not the norm in the NFL Draft, so you are going to need to consider your options at tight end wisely.

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In general, the value of the tight end position over the past four seasons has had more ups and downs than an elevator in a skyscraper. When weighing your options at tight end, you should consider some interesting facts. Since 2011, only two tight ends have scored over 200 fantasy points in a season in standard scoring leagues – Rob Gronkowski (240.9 in 2011) and Jimmy Graham (217.5 in 2013). In comparison, 20 wide receivers scored more than 200 fantasy points in the same period. In 2011, Gronk’s statistics (90 receptions for 1,327 yards and 17 touchdowns) and fantasy points would have put him second among wide receivers. Only Calvin Johnson’s 263.2 fantasy points (96 receptions for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns) bested Gronkowski.

In 2012, Gronk’s average draft position (ADP) was 17. However, he finished second among tight ends with 143 fantasy points due to injuries. That same year, Jimmy Graham lead the NFL in fantasy points among tight ends with 152.2 fantasy points (85 receptions for 982 yards and nine touchdowns). While impressive for a tight end, those numbers would have made Graham No. 19 among wide receivers.

In 2013, Graham’s ADP was 16. As previously mentioned, Graham lead the league with 217.5 fantasy points, which would have placed him fourth among wide receivers behind Josh Gordon, Demaryius Thomas and Calvin Johnson. In that same season, Vernon Davis was the second best tight end in fantasy football with 52 receptions for 850 yards and 13 touchdowns for a total of 161 points; 56.5 points behind the leader. Among wide receivers, Davis would have been tied with Anquan Boldin for 15th.

In 2014, Gronk’s ADP was 30 in standard leagues. The draft steal of 2014, Gronk (82 receptions for 1124 yards and 12 touchdowns) once again led all tight ends with 184.4 fantasy points, which put him in the top 10 among wide receivers. The second best tight end, Antonio Gates, compiled 69 receptions for 821 yards and 12 touchdowns, for a total of 154.1 fantasy points, which ranks about 18th among wide receivers.

Where you select a tight end in your fantasy football draft is dependent upon your draft position, roster size, league scoring settings and whether you can start one or more players at the same position. In some cases, you may be able to start a tight end in the flex position, which will impact how you select other positions if more than one top tier tight end is available to you. However, the most important thing to consider is value. As previously noted, the value of tight ends varies from year to year.

To assist you with your pre-draft preparation, I have broken down the top 12 tight ends into three tiers and included rounds in which you should consider selecting them. Remember that draft position and scoring system are important factors, however, when it comes to the tight end position, value will be as equally important.

Tier One

These guys are the elite among NFL tight ends. Plus athletes that are considered primary weapons in their offense, you can count on these guys to see targets and get opportunities. In addition, these players are top red zone options for their respective quarterbacks. If you are looking for WR1 production from a tight end, draft these guys early. Unfortunately, only Rob Gronkowski fits this category, and he is going to cost you a late first or early second round pick.

Tier Two

Whether they have changed teams or their team has acquired additional receiving options, these players will see their share of targets and red zone opportunities.
 
The Seattle Seahawks’ coach, Pete Carroll, hasn’t traditionally utilized tight ends as anything more than blockers for Marshawn Lynch. I suspect this will change with the acquisition of Jimmy Graham in a trade that sent center Max Unger to New Orleans. While he is no longer in a pass-first offense, Graham has the size and skills to provide Russell Wilson with a quality receiving option if he is given opportunities like he was in New Orleans. It helps that Graham has also worked on his blocking, which will keep him on the field.

In 2014, Greg Olsen caught 84 passes for 1,008 yards and six touchdowns making him the No. 4 tight end in fantasy football. While Carolina acquired Jarrett Boykin in free agency and drafted Devin Funchess, Olsen is still a trusted target of Cam Newton.

Even though he spent the early part of 2014 playing limited snaps, Travis Kelce finished eighth among tight ends with 67 catches for 862 yards and five touchdowns. With the acquisition of Jeremy Maclin, the coverage should be a little looser for Kelce. Thanks to “Checkdown Charlie” Alex Smith’s game-manager style, Kelce will see more short targets than long, but he will get his chances in the end zone.

A strong blocker who rarely leaves the field, Martellus Bennett reached career highs in targets (128), receptions (90), yards (916) and touchdowns (six) in 2014. Though Chicago drafted West Virginia wide receiver Kevin White, Bennett should still see plenty of targets and red zone opportunities thanks to his size (6’5, 265 lbs.) and the departure of Brandon Marshall. The only concern with Bennett will be which Jay Cutler shows up from week to week.

Tier Three

Unlike the first two tiers, there are very little guarantees with these guys. While most of these players are high-risk, high-reward options, drafting just one could be disastrous, so be sure to add depth behind whoever you choose to start.

Despite being marred by injuries, Antonio Gates has finished in the top 12 among tight ends every year since 2011. In 2014, Gates finished the season as the No. 2 tight end in fantasy football, as feat he has not accomplished since 2010, with 69 receptions for 821 yards and 12 touchdowns. Though he is heavily touchdown dependent, Gates has proven to be Philip River’s most trusted target. Unfortunately, Gates was suspended for the first four games of the 2015 season for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs. Had he not been suspended, Gates would have been a Tier Two tight end and top five option regardless of his age (35).

Fortunately for the Chargers, they have a viable backup option in Ladarius Green. At 6’6” and 238 lbs., Green has the size and athleticism of a young Antonio Gates. For the past two seasons, fantasy experts have hyped Green, but he has not been given an opportunity until now. While he lacks the rapport that Gates has developed with Rivers, someone needs to replace Gates and Green is the next man in line. If he lives up to the hype, Green could be a late round steal at his current ADP of 166.

After catching 80 passes for 917 yards and seven touchdowns in 2013, Jordan Cameron had an injury plagued 2014 campaign. Cameron signed with the Miami Dolphins in free agency after the departure of Charles Clay. Prior to acquiring Cameron, Tannehill had several small, speedy wide receivers such as Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills, Rishard Matthews and Greg Jennings, thus making Cameron (6’5, 245lbs.) a preeminent red zone threat. Unfortunately for Cameron, Miami selected size/speed freak DeVante Parker in the 2015 NFL Draft. Durability concerns also hurt Cameron’s value.

With 13 seasons in the NFL, Jason Witten has demonstrated that toughness can take a tight end far in the NFL. In 2014, Witten finished 10th amongst tight ends with 64 receptions for 703 yards and five touchdowns. While Dallas Cowboys owner/GM Jerry Jones has committed to the run game for 2015, Witten is an excellent blocker, which means he rarely leaves the field. A favorite target of Tony Romo, Witten is always a check down away from an opportunity.

A transplant from San Francisco, Delanie Walker, has shown improvement in his two years with the Tennessee Titans. In 2013, Walker caught 60 passes for 571 yards and six touchdowns. In 2014, Walker finished ninth among tight ends with 63 receptions for 890 yards and four touchdowns. With rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota learning a new system, Justin Hunter’s legal troubles and a relatively weak receiving corps, Walker could be a top option in the Titans’ passing game.

The 2014 season was an up and down year for New York Giants tight end Larry Donnell. In his first year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo’s system, Donnell recorded 63 receptions for 623 yards and six touchdowns. In Week 4, Donnell exploded with seven receptions for 54 yards and three touchdowns. In Week 7, Donnell torched the Cowboys with seven receptions for 90 yards and no touchdowns. Favored by Eli Manning in the end zone, Donnell was second to only Antonio Gates for red zone targets. If the Giants’ offense continues to improve, Donnell will likely be Manning’s third option in the passing game behind Odell Beckham and Victor Cruz.

Heath Miller has been consistently a target monster in Pittsburgh. A favorite target of Ben Roethlisberger, Miller compiled 66 receptions for 761 yards and three touchdowns despite Antonio Brown’s breakout year. At age 32, Miller is starting to show signs of decline, however, Big Ben still consistently looks for his tight end, which keeps Miller in the TE1 discussion.

Many fantasy football experts were predicting that 2014 would be Zach Ertz’s breakout year, but that was not the case. Ertz finished 14th among tight ends with 58 receptions for 702 yards and three touchdowns. In the offseason, it was reported that Ertz had been working on improving his run blocking to get more time on the field. Previously, Ertz was displaced by superior blocker Brent Celek. If Ertz has truly improved in the blocking department, then more time in Chip Kelly’s offense means more opportunities to make plays. Unlike other tight ends in this tier, Ertz has the most upside due to the volume of plays Kelly runs. However, he is truly a high-risk, high-reward gamble.

Honorable Mentions

Owen Daniels has been fairly consistent when playing in a Gary Kubiak offense. Ironically, Daniels has followed Kubiak from Baltimore to Denver. Prior to being hobbled by a knee injury last season, Daniels caught 48 passes for 527 yards and four touchdowns. While he is considered to be part of a tight end tandem with Virgil Green, it is likely that Daniels’ familiarity with the offense will give him more opportunities. It helps that his quarterback is Peyton Manning, but Manning has several quality options besides his tight end.

In his rookie campaign, Austin Seferian-Jenkins showed that he has the size (6’5, 262 lbs.), speed (4.56 40-yard dash) and skills to play tight end in the NFL. Unfortunately, ASJ suffered multiple injuries that derailed his 2014 season. If he can consistently show the talent he flashed before being hurt, Seferian-Jenkins could be a breakout candidate in 2015.

Previously a big end zone target for Peyton Manning, Julius Thomas signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars in free agency. While in Denver, Orange Julius caught 108 passes for 1277 yards and 24 touchdowns. However, one has to wonder whether these numbers were a product of Thomas’ athleticism and size or having Peyton Manning as his quarterback. Regardless, Thomas’ value took a major hit when he signed with Jacksonville. You can bet on his size and skills, but it will be Blake Bortles rather than Peyton Manning throwing passes to Julius Thomas in 2015.

Though he has lacked durability in the early part of his career, Kyle Rudolph is a solid blocker who can help open up holes for Adrian Peterson. This is important because Rudolph will be in on plays where teams are stacking eight in the box to stop Peterson. With Teddy Bridgewater demonstrating competency in Norv Turner’s system, Rudolph has a chance to shine when Bridgewater checks out of plays. The upside is intriguing.

A Week 1 injury cut Tyler Eifert’s 2014 season drastically short. With the departure of Jermaine Gresham, Eifert has a great shot to play every down if he demonstrates strong run blocking abilities. With only A.J. Green as a viable option in the pass game, Eifert can carve out a role for himself if he can develop rapport with Andy Dalton.

A relative unknown, rookie Maxx Williams had two productive seasons while playing for the Minnesota Golden Gophers. In 2013, Williams had 25 receptions for 417 yards and five touchdowns. In 2014, Williams improved his production with 36 catches for 569 yards and eight touchdowns. At 6’4” and 254lbs., Williams is a big target who needs to show that he can run block if he is going to beat out holdover Crockett Gillmore and oft-injured Dennis Pitta. His size, athleticism and ability to make tough catches make Williams an intriguing late-round flier.

With so many boom or bust options out there, tight end is one of the toughest positions to predict. During your fantasy draft, be mindful of your league’s scoring system, and your draft position. Remember, value is key and not every tight end is going to produce like Gronk. Don’t overreach for a tight end you could easily grab in later rounds.

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Phil Falvo is a correspondent for FantasyPros. To read more from Phil, you can check out his archive or follow him @FalvoPS01.