With an increased workload, DeMarco Murray could be a great play against a soft Carolina run defense

Week 7 seems chalky, leaving a lot of pivot options available this week. The Patriots, Colts and Cardinals all have a projected team total (TT) of 28.0 or more with the Jaguars and Browns having a projected TT of less than 19.0. The Saints at Colts have the highest game total (52), and the Browns at Rams have the lowest (41).

Every position player besides Le’Veon Bell (8.8 FPTS) and Jordan Matthews (10.9 FPTS) reached at least 2X value with some reaching 4X value. The unfortunate part was Bell and Matthews were the two of the three players that I had 100% exposure to. Matthew Stafford was my best QB, scoring 37.90 FPTS (4.6%). Lamar Miller brought the best value at RB for me with 22.80 FPTS (5.0%) along with Donte Moncrief at WR with 18.9 FPTS (6.8%). Jordan Cameron was the only tight end I had exposure to, and he scored 12.0 FPTS but only had a $3,000 salary that gave him exactly 4X value.

Most of the players that are listed under “other notables” are players that made my model and graded out high due to salary, matchup, projected value, floor/ceiling, projected touches/targets, game flow, Vegas totals/spreads and projected ownership. Carson Palmer, Todd Gurley and Larry Fitzgerald are listed, but their ownership percentages will be high enough for me to fade in tournaments. However, they make for exceptional cash game plays.

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Quarterback

Ryan Fitzpatrick – NYJ at NE – $5,200
Ryan Fitzpatrick is my favorite per dollar QB this week. He arguably has the best wide receiver tandem (Brandon Marshall/Eric Decker) and will be facing the New England Patriots who are currently ranked 29th vs. QBs (241 PaYdA/G). Fitzpatrick is averaging 18.1 FPTS and comes in with a high probability of exceeding that, which gives him a great chance for a minimum of 4X value. The Jets offensive line has only allowed two sacks this season, giving “Fitzmagic” plenty of time to make his reads. He also has some sneaky wheels, rushing for 65 yards and a TD over his last two games.

Other Notables

• Andrew Luck – IND vs. NO – $7,600
• Drew Brees – NO at IND – $7,000
• Carson Palmer – ARI vs. BAL – $6,700
• Cam Newton – CAR vs. PHI – $6,600
• Philip Rivers – SD vs. OAK – $6,500
• Matthew Stafford – DET vs. MIN – $5,700
• Ryan Tannehill – MIA vs. HOU – $5,700

Running Backs

Arian Foster – HOU at MIA – $7,500
The Houston Texans’ offense got on a roll last week and come into this game with a league-high 75.7 offensive plays per game. The game total is set at 44.5, and I expect that to go over. Foster is an elite pass catcher, with 14 receptions for 136 receiving yards on 16 targets in his first two full games back from injury (groin). He has carried the ball 37 times in that span, equaling 53 total touches/targets. The Dolphins are second to last in rushing defense with 141 RuYdA/G. Foster will be in for a huge workload, easily reaching 25+ touches/targets in this game.

DeMarco Murray – PHI at CAR – $6,400
Chip Kelly has started using common sense when it comes to his offensive scheme over the last two games, giving Murray 51 total touches/targets. Murray has the Eagles flying high in those two games with 246 total yards and two TDs on 41 rush attempts and 10 receptions (12 targets). After having outstanding performances in back-to-back games, Chip Kelly will look to keep the ball rolling vs. Panthers who are currently ranked 25th against RBs. Murray’s projected outcome and ownership make for a great tournament play this week.

Other Notables

• Le’Veon Bell – PIT at KC – $8,400
• Adrian Peterson – MIN at DET – $7,600
• Dion Lewis – NE vs. NYJ – $6,500
• Mark Ingram – NO at IND -$6,300
• Chris Ivory – NYJ at NE – $5,800
• Todd Gurley – STL vs. CLE – $5,000
• Frank Gore – IND vs. NO – $4,900
• Danny Woodhead – SD vs. OAK – $4,600
• Lamar Miller – MIA vs. HOU – $4,600
• Christine Michael – DAL at NYG – $3,000

Wide Receiver

Brandon Marshall – NYJ at NE – $7,800
Brandon Marshall has been on an absolute tear with his new team. He is Ryan Fitzpatrick’s favorite target, and the two have great chemistry. Marshall has 449 RecYds over his last four games with three TDs on 44 targets. The Patriots are ranked 23rd against WRs and their best cornerback Malcolm Butler is no match for Marshall. Bill Belichick usually likes to make a concerted effort when it comes to stopping the most talented WR on the opposing team, but you must have the personnel to be able to execute, and the Patriots do not.

Eric Decker – WAS at NYJ – $5,300
Patriots’ cornerback depth chart consists of Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan, Justin Coleman and Rashaan Melvin. I’m not sure how they plan on keeping Decker in check. He is an outstanding wide receiver who can play on the outside or in the slot. Decker is Fitzpatrick’s second favorite target behind Marshall and is often looked to when the Jets are in the red zone. In this world, nothing can be said to be certain, except death, taxes and Decker touchdowns.

Donte Moncrief – IND vs. NO – $5,200
Moncrief comes in as my overall favorite wide receiver this week when you consider his floor/ceiling per dollar. Moncrief has become Andrew Luck’s favorite option, leading the team in targets (37) during the four games Luck has played this season. During those four games, Moncrief has 23 receptions, 269 receiving yards with four TDs. If Luck is more accurate this week, Moncrief could be in for an enormous game vs. the Saints who are ranked 24th in pass defense with 271 PaYdA/G. This game has the highest game total (52) and is expected to be an entertaining shootout.

Other Notables

• Odell Beckham Jr. – NYG vs. DAL – $8,700
• DeAndre Hopkins – HOU at MIA – $8,600
• Julian Edelman – NE at NYJ – $8,200
• Antonio Brown – PIT at KC – $7,900
• Calvin Johnson – DET vs. MIN – $7,700
• Larry Fitzgerald – ARI vs. BAL – $7,400
• T.Y. Hilton – IND vs. NO – $6,500
• Amari Cooper – OAK at SD – $6,500
• Mike Evans – TB at WAS – $6,400
• Jarvis Landry – MIA vs. HOU – $6,200
• John Brown – ARI vs. BAL – $5,500
• Brandin Cooks – NO at IND – $5,500
• Golden Tate – DET vs. MIN – $5,200
• Michael Crabtree – OAK at SD – $4,300
• Willie Snead – NO at IND – $4,300
• Stefon Diggs – MIN at DET – $4,200
• Lance Moore – DET vs. MIN – $3,500
• Danny Amendola – NE vs. NYJ – $3,500
• Michael Floyd – ARI vs. BAL – $3,200

Tight End

Jordan Reed – WAS vs. TB – $4,200
Reed (concussion) is expected to play after being cleared by an independent neurologist. Chris Thompson is listed as doubtful to play (back). If Thompson doesn’t play, Reed’s ceiling will rise even more with extra targets in the short passing game becoming available. In the four games that Reed has played, he has a total of 34 targets with 24 receptions. The Redskins’ offensive line isn’t anything to brag about, and Kirk Cousins loves to target Reed when he is under pressure. His ownership will likely be one of the lowest at the tight end position this week and comes with just as much upside.

Other Notables

• Rob Gronkowski – NE vs. NYJ – $8,100
• Greg Olsen – CAR vs. PHI – $6,100
• Travis Kelce – KC vs. PIT – $4,900
• Gary Barnidge – CLE at STL – $4,900
• Jordan Cameron – MIA vs. HOU – $3,300
• Zach Ertz – PHI at CAR – $3,200

Flex

Latavius Murray – OAK at SD – $6,100
Latavius Murray grades out as my favorite position player this week. Murray is one of six running backs that are top 20 in carries, targets and receptions. The Raiders are coming off a bye in which teams are finding much success after the week off. Murray’s last performance in Week 5 left a sour taste in the mouths of players who owned him. Take into consideration it was vs. a stout Broncos’ defense, though. Players who are coming off a bad week or a bye, tend to come in much lower owned than they should. The Chargers are ranked 31st vs. RBs this season with 132.5 RuYdA/G.

Defense/Special Teams

Cleveland Browns – CLE at STL – $2,300
This was another week where I was only $100 over in salary for that “perfect lineup.” But the more I researched, the more this pick didn’t become such a burden to me. The Rams should be the highest owned D/ST along with Todd Gurley being the highest owned RB.

The Browns could very likely be owned by 2% or fewer in the Millionaire Maker this week. The Browns are awful vs. the run, but this game features the lowest game total (41) of the week, and the Rams are ranked 31st against D/STs. The Browns will get to face Nick Foles, who threw four interceptions in his last game. Last week the Browns’ D/ST scored 13 FPTS with three interceptions and a TD. If they score their season average of 6.2 FPTS, they will have reached close to 3X value for only $2,300.

Other Notables

• New York Jets – NYJ at NE – $2,900
• New York Giants – NYG vs. DAL – $2,800
• Washington Redskins – WAS vs. TB – $2,500
• St. Louis Rams – STL vs. CLE – $2,400

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Matthew Davis is a correspondent for FantasyPros. You can find more from Matthew by viewing his archive or following him @_mattywood_.