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FantasyPros Mock Draft: Round 1 Recap

FantasyPros Mock Draft: Round 1 Recap
Is sophomore shortstop, Carlos Correa, worthy of a first-round draft pick this season?

Is sophomore shortstop, Carlos Correa, worthy of a first-round draft pick this season?

As the 2016 MLB season gets closer, FantasyPros wants to make sure that each of its readers is prepared for their respective draft. So, for the first time in 2016, we have taken 12 of our News Desk Writers (including yours truly) and played out a live mock draft. This 12-team league is a mixed 5 X 5 H2H league with a 24-person roster, providing fantasy owners a clear look at the most commonly played league. Rosters will be constituted as follows: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, four OF, four UTIL, and 12 pitchers. The league will be played out on Yahoo this season and FantasyPros will provide monthly reviews of how the league progresses.

Keep track of live updates of the Mock Draft @thezman2010 on Twitter or at #FPMockDraft.

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In the first round, the best players in baseball were picked. The AL and NL MVPs were selected and teams were given their foundation. There was one slight surprise in the first round, as a player with less than 100 MLB games played was selected considerably early.

Read below for picks and analysis on the first round of the 2016 FantasyPros MLB Mock Draft.

1.01 Gavin Tramps: Mike Trout – OF, Los Angeles Angels

With such little separation between the top three hitters on the draft board, Gavin wanted the guy with the most proven record of elite production. The Angels’ superstar has hit 77 home runs over the last two years compared to 55 from Bryce Harper and 52 from Paul Goldschmidt. He has also demonstrated greater health by averaging 150 more at-bats than Harper and 100 more than Goldschmidt. His 1.078 OPS in September suggests there are no ill-effects from August’s wrist injury and we are told there is the likelihood of more stolen bases this season, especially when Albert Pujols is out of the lineup at the start of the year.

C- 1B- 2B- SS- 3B- OF- Trout OF- OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P-

1.02 Roy Widrig: Bryce Harper – OF, Washington Nationals

It is hard to go wrong with a top-five overall pick, but there is always risk in taking the guy that plays the outfield like there’s a tiger chasing him. This pick came down to Harper (42 HR, 99 RBI, .330 AVG, 1.109 OPS) versus a corner infielder with similar statistics (41 HR, 123 RBI, .297 AVG, .939 OPS), but given the rapid decrease in outfield depth and a sudden plethora of slugging corner infielders, Harper won out. It also helped that those stats were produced in a lesser lineup and in 99 fewer plate appearances – speaking more to the natural talent of Harper than to the loaded lineup of the player I passed up. Need more convincing? His WRC+ of 197 towered over Mike Trout‘s 172 and Harper was one of only two players with an OPS greater than 1.000.

C- 1B- 2B- SS- 3B- OF- Harper OF- OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P-

1.03 Daniel Marcus: Paul Goldschmidt – 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks

The third pick might be the best pick to have this season because only one of Trout, Harper, and Goldschmidt will be left and there really are not any other reasonable choices in the top three. I ended up with Goldschmidt in this instance and that is fine by me as he contributes in every standard 5X5 category and provides elite stats in every category but steals. Taking a star first baseman is important this year, as the top end of the position is incredibly strong but after they are gone the position falls off drastically.

C- 1B- Goldschmidt 2B- SS- 3B-OF- OF- OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P-

1.04 Kerry Kauffman: Clayton Kershaw – SP, Los Angeles Dodgers:

Considering nearly half of his fantasy roster will be made up of pitchers, Kerry grabbed one right away. Very few, if any are better than Clayton Kershaw. The lefty is top tier in every category, leading the league in strikeouts last season with 301, innings pitched with 232 2/3, shutouts with three and a minuscule 0.881 WHIP. Although Kershaw’s win total was down in 2015 (16), he is always a threat to hit 20 wins and has been the best starting pitcher in Major League Baseball over the past five seasons. Kerry saw Kershaw as the rock-solid ace of his pitching staff.

C- 1B- 2B- SS- 3B- OF- OF- OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- UT- P- Kershaw P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P-

1.05 Eric TownsendJose Altuve – 2B, Houston Astros

While this may seem like a homer pick (Eric covers the Astros), Jose Altuve has clearly separated himself from the rest of the 2B pack. Altuve finished second on the player rater last season among second baseman (10th overall), only to Dee Gordon, and is a safe bet for 35+ steals and an average around .315. He also more than doubled his home run total from any other season, hitting 15 in 2015.  The 15 homers may seem like an outlier, but they came as a result of seeing better pitches due to the improved lineup around him. With speed being a premium these days (only seven players had 30+ steals in 2015, compared to 15 the year before), and a clear drop off in talent at the 2B position after Altuve and Dee, this was a great way to start Eric’s team.

C- 1B- 2B-Altuve SS- 3B- OF- OF- OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P-

1.06 Matt TerelleJosh Donaldson – Toronto Blue Jays

After a dominant 2015 campaign, he can safely be considered among the top hitters in the league. He definitely enjoyed his first season in Toronto, posting career highs in home runs, RBI, runs scored, extra-base hits and batting average. Donaldson can be expected to contribute elite numbers in all fantasy categories except stolen bases, making him an easy selection in the middle of the first round. Donaldson can anchor a fantasy team and he will put together another big year hitting in the middle of the high-powered Toronto lineup.

C- 1B- 2B- SS- 3B- Donaldson OF- OF- OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P-

1.07 Jamie MellorCarlos Correa – SS, Houston Astros

This is swinging for the fences. There are safer picks out there and Jamie would suggest you feel the pulse of your league if they are people you know. They may be driven by last year’s numbers or default rankings, but if they make emotional homer picks, it may be advisable to go safer at this spot and hope a high upside player falls to you in the second-round. Of course, he was worried about a sophomore slump because pitchers and coaching staffs watch a ton of tape in the offseason. Jamie believes he is getting Troy Tulowitzki without the injury issues, giving a strong advantage over most of the teams at SS. On the other hand, Jamie does fear that he could hit the wall and take significant time to respond to the league’s adjustments, putting him a little behind the teams that went with safer guys.

C- 1B- 2B- SS- Correa 3B- OF- OF- OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P-

1.08 David MarcilloGiancarlo Stanton – OF, Miami Marlins

With any other end to the 2015 season, Stanton likely wouldn’t be available as the 8th pick of the draft. Due to an injury shortened season, however, there is some doubt about Stanton’s production in 2016. The enormous outfielder did not play again in 2015 after injuring his hamate bone in late June. His 2014 season was also cut short after a Mike Fiers fastball clocked him in the face. Both injuries were of the “freak injury” variety, but the hamate bone is more concerning as he was only supposed to be out for a few weeks but was never able to regain enough strength to return to the field. Stanton is expected to be 100% for Spring Training but there is still a bit of risk involved in this pick as Stanton’s swing is powerful and violent and may not lend itself well to recovering from a power-sapping injury. Still, the upside is there for the league lead in home runs and RBI, along with some help in all other 5×5 categories.  He could even steal a dozen or so bases in the coming season.

C- 1B- 2B- SS- 3B- OF-Stanton OF- OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P-

1.09 Chris ZolliNolan Arenado – 3B, Colorado Rockies

After my two top candidates at the ninth pick were taken right before me, the best option was the 24-year-old Arenado. This decision came down to the Rockies’ slugger and Manny Machado, but there were too many things that favored Arenado over the 23-year-old from Baltimore. First, Arenado has shown more power than Machado, as he led the National League in both home runs and RBI in 2015 and has averaged 71 extra base hits over the last two seasons. Machado’s .861 OPS from 2015, and torrid second-half were enticing but, when it really came down to it, the fact that Arenado gets to play 81 games a season at Coors Field is enough to make him the better selection in this place. He had a .960 OPS at home during the 2015 season and his OPS is 166 points higher in his career while playing in the thin Denver air. Many may fear that his 42 home run outburst came out of nowhere in 2015, but he was a solid doubles hitter with strong power before 2015 and had progressively worked to hit the ball in the air more, seeing his fly ball rate go from 33.7% in 2013 to 43.9% in 2015. Even though third base is a loaded position, I am more than happy to form my roster on the foundation of the talented Rocky third basemen.

C- 1B- 2B- SS- 3B-Arenado OF- OF- OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P-

1.10 Matthew DavisAnthony Rizzo – 1B, Chicago Cubs

Matt was very pleased to select Rizzo 10th overall. The Chicago Cubs have a loaded lineup and Rizzo is the centerpiece of it. Last season was a career year for him in runs (94), RBI (101) and stolen bases (17). Rizzo has 63 HRs over the last two seasons with 2016 nearly being a lock for another 30+ HR season. The youth movement in Chicago is progressing which will only help Rizzo’s RBI opportunities. The 26-year-old All-Star is ranked seventh overall in my current rankings.

C- 1B- Rizzo 2B- SS- 3B- OF- OF- OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P-

1.11 John AubinAndrew McCutchen – OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

It is a pleasant surprise to have Andrew McCutchen fall to the eleventh pick. The star has faded a little bit on McCutchen after having a down year in 2015, but he did battle knee problems from the start of the season which contributed to his decline from his MVP year in 2014. Reports are that McCutchen is 100% healthy and ready to go in 2016. While he may not put up numbers like he had in 2012-14, he is still a 28-year-old, in his prime and should be in line for a 20/20 season or even 30/20 if he has some favorable HR/FB fluctuation. John felt that this was a safe pick for the end of the first round.

C- 1B- 2B- SS- 3B- OF- OF-McCutchen OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P-

1.12 Rob KleinMiguel Cabrera – 1B, Detroit Tigers

For most players, winning a batting title with a .338 batting average, 18 home runs and 76 RBI would be considered a good year. Miguel Cabrera is not most players. Coming off a disastrous season for the last place Detroit Tigers, Cabrera was limited to just 119 games due to various injuries. Both the Tigers and Miggy get to hit the reset button in 2016 and while the days of 40+ home runs may be gone, he will once again contend for a batting title with 25+ home runs and close to his standard of 100 RBI. The emergence of J.D. Martinez and a healthy Victor Martinez hitting behind him should provide ample protection in the lineup for Cabrera as well. Rob’s choice of Cabrera hinged on his high batting average to go along with his power which is still a rare combination.

C- 1B- Cabrera 2B- SS- 3B- OF- OF- OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P-

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Chris Zolli is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Chris, check out his archive and follow him @thezman2010.

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