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LABR Draft Analysis

LABR Draft Analysis
Randal_Grichuk_Cardinals

Only a handful of All-Stars hit the ball harder than Randal Grichuk

Baseball season is fully upon us. For the majority of us, we get that feeling when the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) draft takes place. If you’re not familiar with LABR, it was formed in the 90’s and has become one of the elite expert leagues in fantasy baseball. There are 15 of the top baseball experts in the industry battling for the title of being the LABR champion(s). This draft is a great bookmark for anybody who plays fantasy baseball, where you can view different strategies and styles of roster construction. After following along this year’s LABR draft, I was intrigued, enthused and eager to break it down.

Draft Order

1. Jeff Erickson, RotoWire
2. Alan Harrison, The Fantasy Fix
3. Stephania Bell, ESPN
4. Todd Zola, Mastersball
5. Steve Gardner, USA TODAY Sports
6. Ray Murphy, Baseball HQ
7. Brett Sayre & Mike Gianella, Baseball Prospectus
8. Jake Ciely, RotoExperts
9. Jason Collete & Paul Sporer, FanGraphs’ “The Sleeper & The Bust” podcast
10. Howard Bender, FantasyAlarm
11. Mike Podhorzer, FanGraphs
12. Doug Anderson, Fantasy Sports Network
13. Rudy Gamble, Razzball
14. Fred Zinkie, MLB.com
15. Keith Hernandez, USA TODAY Fantasy sports

LABR full draft board from RTSports

First Round Take

The first four picks came as no surprise with Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, Bryce Harper and Clayton Kershaw being the cream of the crop.

Ray Murphy from Baseball HQ made a questionable leap with the sixth pick when he selected Nolan Arenado (1.6). I have Manny Machado (1.7) and Josh Donaldson (1.12) currently ranked over Arenado at the hot corner.

Doug Anderson from Fantasy Sports Network landed the biggest steal in the first round, selecting Josh Donaldson (1.12) with the 12th pick.

The Year of Starting Pitching

Pitchers are usually put on the back burner when it comes to investing in them early, but times are changing and the wave of power pitching is here. A substantial run was hit early with 13 pitchers being selected in the second and third round.

Keith Hernandez from USA TODAY Fantasy Sports started the run in perfect fashion, drafting Max Scherzer with first pick in the second round.

The last pick in the second round (2.15) was my favorite selection when Jeff Erickson from RotoWire was able to steal Chris Sale. I also loved Erickson’s strategy of going back-to-back with starting pitchers, knowing that most elite pitching wouldn’t come back to him late in the fourth round. However, I wasn’t a huge fan of Gerrit Cole (3.1) being that pitcher of choice.

Todd Zola from Mastersball was fortunate enough to land Clayton Kershaw (1.4). Zola’s group of starting pitchers is my favorite staff in LABR, but there is one thing I would have done differently. Zola drafted Kyle Seager (4.12) while Chris Archer (4.14) was still available. The thought of pairing Kershaw and Archer together would have been a thing of beauty.

Closing Time

The elite closers, Kenley Jansen (5.3), Craig Kimbrel (5.6) and Wade Davis (5.7) went a round earlier than Aroldis Chapman (6.8). Eight closers were selected in the seventh and eighth round.
Fred Zinkie of MLB.com earned a sparkle in my eye when he landed Jeurys Familia (7.14) near the end of the seventh round. Familia has the potential to finish as one of the top closers this season.

My favorite collection of closers has to go to Ray Murphy if you consider round selection, consistency and upside. Craig Kimbrel (5.6) and Brad Boxberger (10.10) will put up huge strikeout numbers while racking up saves. Roberto Osuna (20.10) is waiting in the wings for the Blue Jays and will post great ratios.

To Infinity and Beyond

Everybody loves upside but that usually comes with risk. If you want to take down a high stakes league like LABR, it will take a few high risk, high reward players.

ESPN.com’s Stephania Bell landed Jean Segura (10.13) in the 10th round and I absolutely love the pick. A lot of people are down on the 25-year-old Dominican after having two disappointing seasons. Stephania Bell and I are on the same page when it comes to Segura’s 2016 ceiling, where he could rack up a ton of stolen bases.

Yasiel Puig (6.7). You either love him or hate him. FanGraphs’ “Sleeper & The Bust” podcast duo Jason Collette and Paul Sporer apparently love Puig as much as I do. The dynamic duo drafted Puig in the sixth round and should receive a substantial ROI in 2016 where he could achieve second round production.

The Cardinals’ are about to unleash a beast in Randal Grichuk (9.12), and Doug Anderson knows all about it. Grichuk’s hard hit rate (39.1%) is monstrous, and at age 24 his plate discipline will progress over time. We saw his power upside in 2015 with 17 HR in 323 at-bats. This young wildebeest is in line to be the Cardinals’ everyday center fielder and makes for an exciting player to own in 2016.

Jake Ciely from RotoExperts made his LABR debut this year and near every player he drafted comes with upside. Ciely started with Giancarlo Stanton (1.8) and ended with Jonathan Gray (29.8). Job well done for his LABR debut.

FanGraphs’ Mike Podhorzer earns the top spot at the catcher position with the combination of Kyle Schwarber (4.5) and Yan Gomes (12.5). One of the main things I focus on in two-catcher leagues is knowing that your guys are going to combine for 1,000-plus plate appearances. Podhorzer has that going for him along with enormous upside in the HR and RBI departments. I absolutely adore this catching duo.

Stock Market

Players are like stocks from now until Opening Day and the more positive chatter one gets, their stock will increase, which will result in players moving up draft boards. LABR is a great way to gauge where players are drafted in comparison to their average draft position (ADP) around the industry. Usually, the younger players that come with some unknown are the “sexy” picks that gain helium heading into April.

FantasyAlarm’s Howard Bender was able to snatch Brandon Finnegan (19.10) with the 280th overall pick. Finnegan has major strikeout upside and will most certainly fly up draft boards. You’re going to need to strike before the iron is hot if you want to land the Reds’ future ace.

Trevor Bauer used to be the hot young commodity that everyone wanted to own because of his elite prospect title. Since then, Bauer hasn’t dazzled consistently enough to climb up the ranks. Brett Sayre and Mike Gianella from Baseball Prospectus, landed Bauer (21.7) well below his possible value. If Bauer’s command improves, the Baseball Prospectus team invested in a stock that will surely profit.

Lucky Number 13?

Alan Harrison from TheFantasyFix, was able to nab Michael Conforto in the 13th round. I’m a big fan of this selection where Conforto will be a legit third outfielder and makes for a great concoction that already includes Gregory Polanco (7.2) and David Peralta (8.14).

Dellin Betances (13.5) isn’t expected to close out many games in 2016 with Andrew Miller (18.9) and Aroldis Chapman (6.8) in the mix, but there is still a sufficient amount of upside. Betances is a viable arm that you can leave in your pitching spot all year long. Steve Gardner from USA TODAY Sport will be pleased with the numbers that Betances will yield yet again.

Rudy Gamble from Razzball snagged Marcell Ozuna (13.13) as his fourth outfielder. Some are down on the 25-year-old, but you shouldn’t be. Ozuna has tremendous talent and is reporting to camp 20 pounds lighter than he did last season. His hard-hit rate of 35.5% is magnificent and the Marlins are bringing in and lowering the fences, which will increase power numbers.

The 13th round is nothing to be scared of this year with a lot of talented, solid players being drafted. Ray Murphy nailed Jorge Soler (13.6), Brett Sayre and Mike Gianella landed Carlos Rodon (13.7), Doug Anderson nabbed Arodys Vizcaino (13.12) and Keith Hernandez stole Julio Teheran (13.15).

That’s All Folks

LABR has come and gone, but the fun has only begun. Pitchers and catchers have reported to spring training and positional players will soon follow. Make sure to use any and every tool that FantasyPros has to offer to help increase your chances at taking down your fantasy baseball leagues. Whether it’s a friends and family league or a high stakes league like NFBC. Best of luck to everyone in LABR this year and may the best team win.

FantasyPros Draft Wizard Analysis

You can view projected standings, draft analysis and details by category with our Draft Wizard Analysis. You can use this tool for your own leagues or mock drafts as well.

Matthew Davis is a correspondent for FantasyPros. You can find more from Matthew by viewing his archive or following him @_mattywood_.

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