2024 Fantasy Baseball Rankings (NL)

Shohei Ohtani remains a fantasy giant, even if he is only a hitter in 2024. Despite playing for an underwhelming Angels team, he delivered 95 RBIs, 102 runs, 44 homers, and 20 steals in 135 games. His recovery from an elbow injury should mirror Bryce Harper's successful return, indicating minimal impact on his elite performance. Statcast ranks Ohtani in the top 98th percentile for batting run value, leading in barrel percentage, exit velocity, and expected slugging. The only concern is the trend of players underperforming after big free-agent deals, but Ohtani's exceptional skill set makes him a solid addition to fantasy lineups. There is a chance he could slip to the second round, which boosts his value even higher.

Bryce Harper returned triumphantly from elbow surgery in May instead of the predicted July and rewarded every fantasy manager who took a flier on him late in 2023 drafts. He played 126 games and remained an elite hitter in the majors, slashing .293/.401/.499 in the middle of a Phillies lineup that finished sixth in team OPS. Harper is now primarily a DH/1B, which should work just fine in fantasy leagues, and fantasy managers can anticipate a 30/90/90 season with double-digit steals (he stole 11 in '23). After Freddie Freeman is off the board, whether Matt Olson or Harper goes next is a coin flip. A full season of Bryce Harper is never a bad thing to have on your fantasy roster.

Manny Machado had a down year by his standards and by the standards of fantasy managers who took him early in 2023 drafts. In 138 games, he hit 30 home runs and drove in 91, which is in line with his career average. However, his batting average (.258) and OBP (.319) did not hold up their end of the bargain. Of course, neither did the Padres All-Star lineup. According to Statcast, he is right around average in Batting Run Value, which should drop his draft cost considerably, and his counting numbers may not hold steady with the departure of Juan Soto in the offseason. When you take into consideration the overall increase in talent at 3B and couple it with an aging Machado (he will turn 32 in July), there may be better value on the board in 2024.

Paul Goldschmidt continued to do what he does, albeit at a lesser pace than his torrid 2022. He hit 25 home runs, scored 89 runs, knocked in 80, and stole 11 bases. He continued to be a picture of stability, playing in over 150 games for the eighth year in a row (excluding 2020). His batting average tumbled from .317 to .268, and his slugging fell to .447 from .578. Essentially, the regression that we expected hit, yet he still had an overall productive season. Looking ahead, fantasy managers can probably expect numbers in line with 2023.

In 2023, Christian Yelich bounced back impressively, showcasing a potent mix of power and speed with 19 homers, 106 runs, 76 RBIs, and 28 steals. His .278 batting average matched his expected average, underlined by a top-tier Hard-Hit% in the 93rd percentile. Yelich's on-base skills shone, too, reaching a .370 OBP, partly thanks to the new shift rules. Despite a less-than-stellar Brewers lineup, he surpassed 100 runs, a trend likely to continue in 2024. While nagging back issues are a concern, a healthy Yelich offers strong outfield value, fitting comfortably as an OF3 with potential for more.

Kyle Schwarber is one of the most predictable players in fantasy baseball. He will hit bombs (40+). He will score runs (100+). He is going to drive in teammates (100+). And he will absolutely crater your batting average (.197 in 2023). These stats seem like a "The sun rises in the East" type of guarantee. Schwarber does get on base, thanks to a 17.5% walk rate, and he continued to hit atop a powerful Phillies batting order. You just need to decide if you're punting the average category before you take him because you don't get to be surprised by it later.

William Contreras arrived in 2023 and produced at a Top 10 catcher rate for the entire season. He provides a nice balance of power and average from the backstop position, hitting 17 home runs and slashing .289/.367/.457. Nothing stands out as something fantasy managers will have to "account for" when drafting him, ideally past the eighth round.

Teoscar Hernandez appeared in 160 games in his season with Seattle, echoing his typical performance. He notched 26 home runs, tallied 93 RBIs, and scored 70 runs. Excelling in hard hits (90th percentile) and a 13.8% barrel rate, Hernandez is expected to maintain a batting average of around .250. Landing in Los Angeles to bat in the middle of that powerhouse lineup, Hernandez suddenly has extremely high upside in counting stats. Beware of the premium that many fantasy managers will put on all 2024 Dodgers, but at the right price, Hernandez can be a high-end OF3.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand got 241 plate appearances for Cincinnati in 2023, hitting 13 home runs and slashing .270/.328/.477. The acquisition of Jeimer Candelario leaves the 24-year-old without a regular position other than DH, but that's all fantasy managers will need him for. CES has the profile to become a very helpful fantasy bat and can slot in as a corner infielder in lineups nicely.

In 2023, Marcell Ozuna shined for the Atlanta Braves, hitting 40 homers in 144 games and posting a .274/.346/.558 batting line. Ranking in the top 98% for both xwOBA (.400) and xSLG (.558), Ozuna is poised for another strong year in 2024, backed by Atlanta's formidable lineup. However, fantasy managers should note he's likely to be DH-only in their lineups.

In 2023, Jorge Soler demonstrated formidable power, blasting 36 homers while racking up 77 runs and 75 RBIs. With a .376 xwOBA, placing him in the top tier of hitters, the 31-year-old showcased his strength despite a high 24.3% strikeout rate. His standout ISO of .262 highlights his offensive prowess. Now a free agent, Soler's future lineup impact is uncertain, yet he's expected to maintain his 30+ home run potential and possibly surpass 90 runs and RBIs. Additionally, he retains outfield eligibility, avoiding fantasy limitations.

 

Willson Contreras began his Cardinals career by improving his batting average and not slipping anywhere else. The elder Contreras brother hit 20 home runs, drove in 67, and slashed .264/.358/.467 across 125 games. He increased his BB% to 10.3 and is in the 93rd percentile in xwOBA at .373. While he will go through stretches where he chases more than fantasy managers would like, he should continue his Top 10 catcher production in his ninth season. Willson and William had eerily similar stats in 2023, but you can get Willson about 55 picks later. He is a great mid-round target to fill your catcher position.

Nolan Gorman offers the possibility of 30 home runs from the second base position, and you can have him past pick 180. The question is how many opportunities he will have, given that his K% is north of 30. Gorman feels like the type of fantasy player who hits most of his home runs while on your bench because you benched him after a week of 40 strikeouts. If your ratios are protected elsewhere, Gorman can provide pop in your MI slot.

 

 

Lourdes Gurriel, Jr., joined Arizona through the Daulton Varsho deal and impressed in his free agency lead-up. He achieved personal highs with 24 homers and 65 runs. Known for his solid contact hitting, ranking in the top 77% for HardHit%, Gurriel faced a dip in BABIP, likely to rebound in 2024. As a valuable OF5 pick, he's a great late-round draft choice.