Kyle Soppe names his All-Bust Team for 2015.
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The term “bust” is a relative term, as it depends on where he is being selected. The listed players have value at the right spot, but they’ve been included here based on their current consensus ranking being far above the price I am willing to pay. Whether it is a lack of upside, too great a downside, or a combination of both, all of these players have a flaw that I simply am not willing to overlook. With the “sleeper” narrative a bit played out these days, the volume of coverage leaves almost no stone unturned for even the casual baseball fan. Knowing who not to draft is becoming increasingly important. Avoid these players now and thank me in October.
Catcher: Yadier Molina
They say “age is only a number” … only a number? The only thing we care about are numbers in the fantasy world, and the fact that the Cardinals backstop turns 33 this July is only one of a handful of numbers that I’m worried about. For the second consecutive season, Molina’s ISO, LD%, and OBP declined while his GB/FB rate and K% rose, trends that indicate that Father Time is knocking on the door. Torn ligaments in his thumb contributed to him appearing in only 110 games, his fewest in a decade, adding another layer of concern to this once elite fantasy option. Don’t get me wrong, his ability to slow a run game (especially in the NL Central) and command a pitching staff makes him irreplaceable to the Cardinals, but I’d prefer a lower-ranked option in Russell Martin when it comes to raw statistical production.
First Base: Victor Martinez
I began jumping off this bandwagon a bit too early last year, but the thought remains the same as it was with Molina: sustained improvement doesn’t typically occur with age. Sure, Martinez defied logic with his best overall fantasy season at the age of 35, and we’ve seen Peyton Manning break records at an advanced age, but age will win out eventually … it’s just a matter of when. Prior to his ACL tear in 2012, his isolated power was in the ilk of Erick Aybar, and in his first season post-op, he ranked alongside James Loney. So you can see where his rubbing elbows with a consistently elite power option in Jose Bautista would concern me a bit when it comes to sustainability. The offseason knee issues are a red flag even with Opening Day being the targeted return date. It also goes without mention that that an injury to Miguel Cabrera would significantly limit his run production potential. We saw signs of him willing to extend the strike zone a bit last season as a result of confidence he gained by hitting .337 in two-strike counts: good luck repeating that. I like this Detroit offense and wouldn’t mind owning stock in most players involved in it, but the 36-year-old former catcher will be on exactly zero of my teams. If you’re hell bent on owning a former catcher as a corner infielder, go with Carlos Santana instead.
Second Base: Dustin Pedroia
If “age is only a number,” what the hell is a name? It’s a collection of letters. That’s all. And you know what? That has absolutely no value in fantasy baseball. Just because he has a recognizable name, plays in a big market, has a pretty cool nickname, and gives the type of effort you’d want your child to mirror, doesn’t mean he should be starting for your fantasy team.
Sorry Pedroia, nothing personal. You’re just no longer an option.
I like the guy and all that he stands for, but you could have said the same for Dick Clark. Nothing lasts forever, and in the fantasy business, you have to take the emotion out of things. It would now be an accomplishment for the one-time 20/20 threat to total 20 homers-plus-steals, and with the influx of talent on this BoSox roster, his spot in the top third of the lineup is far from safe. His strikeout percentage reached a career-high last season while his ISO and HR/FB continued their rapid decent. Those are trends that are difficult to count on reversing as The Laser Show approaches his 32nd birthday. I understand liking a steady veteran at a tough to fill position, but I’d side with a Neil Walker or Howie Kendrick if you’re committed to that style of drafting.
Shortstop: Jose Reyes
In contrast to Pedroia, where the fantasy community seems to have come to terms with a drop-off in production (just not enough for my liking), Reyes is a player still being counted on in a big way given his strong numbers in 236 games as a member of the Blue Jays (152 runs, 19 homers, 88 RBI, a .290 batting average and 45 steals on 53 attempts). While there are exceptions to every rule, I tend to like my speed-oriented fantasy assets like I like my fantasy football running backs: under the age of 30. Sure, Reyes burned this theory last year, but advanced age results in declining speed more often than not, making the soon-to-be 32-year-old a risky investment. The bulky hamstring that bothered him last season is a serious risk over the course of 162 games, one that I’m not willing to take. Dig a bit deeper and you’ll notice a significant rise in FB/GB rate since joining Toronto, and although he has more pop than your average speedster, it isn’t an approach at the plate fantasy owners should embrace. Reyes managed to hit an amazing .336 on the first three pitches of at-bats last season, a 110 point spike from his batting average after the third pitch. On the surface, that may not seem to mean a whole lot, but when you consider that he was willing to expand the strike zone more than usual (his O-Swing % increased for a second consecutive season and marked a new career-high for the 12-year veteran), it is a distinct possibility that pitchers continue to pitch away from him, which could result in more at-bats that last at least four pitches. I’m not saying his production takes a complete nose dive, but he is not worth the risk for me this season, as I would prefer Starlin Castro outright to him and Jean Segura based on value.
Third Base: Josh Donaldson
Let it be known that I think this is the position that the experts at FantasyPros have done the best job on, as I have no major qualms with any of the ranks. The move north can’t possibly hurt the stock of this slugger, but natural regression surely can. As I’ve stated before, his numbers against left-handed pitching mirrored that of the 73 home run version of Barry Bonds and I simply don’t think Donaldson is that good of a hitter. He has pop, that’s for sure, but I would use his rough 2014 numbers (90 runs, 30 homers, 100 RBI, and a .255 batting average) as a nice projection for 2015, as opposed to using that as a floor and paying for improvement. Look for the regression in contact numbers to nullify the fantasy gains from playing 81 games in the Rogers Centre and keep him out of the driver’s seat at the fantasy hot corner. Give me the stability of Adrian Beltre or the upward trending nature of Anthony Rendon as better overall options. I’d even prefer the promise of Nolan Arenado and Kyle Seager as better value options at third base.
Outfield: George Springer
This isn’t an argument against the youngster’s raw abilities; it is an argument against how quickly he can make use of all of his tools. The fantasy community as a whole is never happy with what they have and are therefore always looking for “the next” big thing. But what if he’s simply not ready to be the next Mike Trout just yet? What if, like most people in most professions, he takes time to develop? He’s going to be a strong option, but his current price tag reflects a certainty that he makes the leap to superstardom. The strikeout rate is an obvious concern and his tendency to roll over the ball could curb his power a bit, flaws that could be highlighted if he begins to press. I also have my concerns about the roster around him, as it is loaded with similar options that figure to define “streaky”. Look for the Astros and Springer to go through their fair share of ups and downs at the plate in 2015, making him a risk I’m not willing to take in the early rounds. Yoenis Cespedes is an outfielder with some more big league experience and more protection that I would rather gamble on, as the lower ceiling is something I’ll concede for his elevated floor.
Outfield: Yasiel Puig
As a result of the quantity of outfield starters required, I wanted to provide a second player at the position that I feel is a bit overrated. Much like Donaldson at third base, Puig isn’t vastly over ranked in my opinion, but if you’re looking at an OF1, it is necessary to nitpick a bit, as you are counting on him to stabilize your outfield. Puig showed some signs of growth last season, as he found a better balance between his reckless nature and the patience it takes to succeed at this level, but the roster changes will be too much for him to overcome to return OF1 status in my opinion. With Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez, and Dee Gordon out of town, Puig no longer has to worry about playing time, but his role figures to be a bit less fantasy friendly. Gone are the hopes of plus-steal totals, as the No. 3 hitter simply isn’t going to be counted on to take the extra base with regularity. His streaky nature (even with the improvement, he had as many months in which he hit under .250 as he did months in which he hit over .350 last year) makes for a frustrating own and drops him to a tier below established stars that I can count on in Jacoby Ellsbury and Ryan Braun.
Starting Pitcher: Jon Lester
I could wax poetic and try to get to my point without being blunt, but why do that? He’s not as good as you think he is. Plain and simple. Yes, the nine figure contact and career season indicate that his top shelf is tempting, but let’s not get carried away here. Prior to last summer, and even after a strong showing, his GB/FB rate is still a concern. His move to the Senior Circuit should help him produce SP2 numbers, but I’d be inclined to pay for the statistical version of Lester that we saw from 2008-2011, not the one we saw last year. I’d prefer NL East pitchers in Julio Teheran and Matt Harvey that are currently ranked a bit below the Cubbies new ace, as I view the potential of them providing value on their current ADP as much higher.
Starting Pitcher: Johnny Cueto
If I told you that I was going to flip a coin and have it land on heads, and it did, you’d call it lucky, no? If I did it a second time … still luck, correct? A third? No matter how many times I call my toss correctly, it’s still a 50/50 proposition and you’re never going to call me a coin flipping savant that can predict the future. Well, just because Cueto’s ERA has consistently been well below his FIP doesn’t mean that there isn’t still luck involved. Could there be something to the way he pitches or the defense behind him that leads to this? It’s possible, but even with all of the help in the world behind him, I trust the advanced metrics ability to forecast future production more so than I trust him to continue his streak of seven consecutive seasons with an ERA that seemingly overachieves. Other than the weak “law of averages” argument, there are numbers to back me up that a fall back to earth (notice I didn’t say a “crash back to reality;” he’s still going to be a solid pitcher) is likely in 2015. First of all, there is the fact that his GB/FB rate dropped by 36.2 percent last season from 2013, a concern given the hitter friendly park he calls home. Also, I worry that he has a very difficult time repeating a .161/.284/.189 slash that he held opponents to when runners were in scoring position. Furthermore, how many “elite” pitchers are there in MLB that post a SP1 season while not showing any ability to retire the best hitters in the opposing lineup? Cueto somehow managed to do so despite allowing the 3-4 hitters to bat .276 and slug .517, numbers that will swell an ERA sooner rather than later. With professional baseball in the midst of a pitching golden age, don’t be surprised if we see increased aggression from batters this year, as their opportunity to get a pitch they can do damage with declines as the at-bat progresses. That’s another potential pitfall for the Reds ace, as he held opponents to a .122 batting average in two strike counts, but allowed them to bat .271 in non-two strike counts. It may be a boring way to go, but I’d prefer the Nationals third best pitcher in Jordan Zimmerman to Cincinnati’s ace.
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Kyle is a staff writer for RotoExperts. You can follow him on Twitter @unSOPable23.
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