Antonio Brown and other AFC North WRs see a favorable schedule in 2016
The value and importance of looking at each team’s strength of schedule by position is one of most disputed factors when trying to determine player predictions and performance for the upcoming season. Some people use strength of schedule to determine which teams have the easiest schedule based on fantasy points allowed to the position by all of their opponents for the upcoming schedule.
I like to take a little bit of a different approach to strength of schedule by instead looking at which teams have the biggest percentage increase or decrease in production (yardage and touchdowns) when comparing their 2015 schedule to their 2016 schedule.
For example, the Baltimore Ravens 2015 opponents allowed an average of 2,615 receiving yards to wide receivers last season. Looking ahead to the Ravens 2016 schedule their opponents allowed an average of 2,773 receiving yards to wide receivers for an increase of 5.70%.
I believe it is this year over year difference where strength of schedule can be used as a valuable tool to help predict increased or decreased production based on the schedule for the upcoming season.
In this article, I will analyze strength of schedule for the wide receiver position looking at receiving yardage and touchdowns, highlighting which teams(players) should benefit the most from an easier schedule and which teams(players) could be hurt the most by a more difficult schedule in 2016.
See my previous Strength of Schedule articles with analysis of the quarterback and running back positions.
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Receiving Yardage – Gains
Baltimore Ravens (Steve Smith/Mike Wallace/Kamar Aiken): +5.70%
While Aiken led the team in receiving last year with 944 yards, the Ravens have 37-year-old Smith and second-year pro Breshad Perriman returning from injuries this season. They have also added Mike Wallace to help supply a deep threat for the passing game. An easier schedule for the passing offense will help all of the receivers but look for the Ravens to spread the ball around limiting the fantasy upside for all of them.
Pittsburgh Steelers (Antonio Brown): + 5.48%
It is hard to imagine Brown having a better season than last year’s 1,834 yards and 10 touchdowns. However, with no clear-cut No. 2 receiver and an easier schedule this season, if he has a healthy Ben Roethlisberger all year he could outperform last year’s numbers and approach 2,000 receiving yards this season making him a strong choice for the top pick in fantasy drafts.
Cleveland Browns (Josh Gordon/Corey Coleman/Terrelle Pryor): + 5.27%
The battle for catches at wide receiver this season is wide open for the Browns with last year’s top wideout, Travis Benjamin, now in San Diego. Gordon is an elite talent but will miss the first four games and remains a high risk/reward player. While the rookie, Coleman, and converted quarterback, Pryor, try to carve out a role for themselves. A favorable schedule this season will help these wideouts have some breakout games, but they will likely be inconsistent.
The next three:
- Chicago Bears (Alshon Jeffery/Kevin White): +4.42%
- Minnesota Vikings (Stephon Diggs/Laquon Treadwell): +4.20%
- Cincinnati Bengals (A.J. Green): +3.64%
Receiving Yardage – Losses
New Orleans Saints (Brandin Cooks/Willie Snead): -5.21%
Cooks (1,138 yards) and Snead (984 yards) led the way for the Saints wideouts in 2015 and both return to their same roles as the top two receivers this season. With Drew Brees another year older and a more difficult schedule for the Saints’ receivers to work against, Cooks and Snead could both see a slight regression in their fantasy production this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Mike Evans/Vincent Jackson): -4.52%
Much like the Saints, the Buccaneers return their top two wide receivers from last year again this season with Evans, who lead the team with 1,206 receiving yards and Jackson, who had 543 yards in 10 games. Evans will remain a top target for Jameis Winston again this season but will have a more difficult time putting up big yardage against tougher pass defenses.
Atlanta Falcons (Julio Jones): -4.33%
The Falcons complete the NFC South trio atop the list of tougher schedules for wide receivers this season. Jones posted career-highs in receptions (136) and yards (1,871) last season putting him near the top of draft boards and in the conversation for the top overall pick. However, while fellow top wideout Antonio Brown gets an easier schedule this season, Jones will face a more difficult one which could be enough to tip the scales toward Brown when deciding between the two receivers.
The next three:
- New England Patriots (Julian Edelman): -3.31%
- Carolina Panthers (Kelvin Benjamin/Ted Ginn/Devin Funchess): -2.97%
- Tennessee Titans (Kendall Wright/Rishard Matthews/Tajae Sharpe): -2.96%
Receiving Touchdown – Gains
Minnesota Vikings (Stephon Diggs/ Laquon Treadwell): +18.75%
The Vikings don’t pass to their wide receivers much near the end zone with Diggs leading the team with just four touchdown catches last season. With Teddy Bridgewater entering his third season and the addition of Treadwell along with an easier schedule the Vikings wide receivers could get a few extra scores this season.
Green Bay Packers (Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb): +18.75%
With Nelson out all of last season, James Jones came in to lead the Packers’ receivers with eight scores while Cobb reached the end zone six times. This season with the return of Nelson and release of Jones, coupled with a softer schedule for the passing game look for Nelson to approach double-digit touchdowns while Cobb also catches a couple more than last season.
Chicago Bears (Alshon Jeffery/Kevin White): +17.65%
The Bears round out the trio of NFC North teams with the biggest increase in WR touchdown opportunity this season. Despite just playing in nine games last season, Jeffery led Bears’ receivers in touchdowns with four. If Jeffery can avoid injuries this season he should be able to approach 10 scores, while White uses his big 6’3’’ frame near the end zone to take advantage of softer pass defenses as he gains experience.
The next four:
- Cleveland Browns (Josh Gordon/Corey Coleman/Terrelle Pryor): +16.67%
- Detroit Lions (Golden Tate/Marvin Jones): +16.67%
- Pittsburgh Steelers (Antonio Brown): +15.79%
- Cincinnati Bengals (A.J. Green): +15.79%
Receiving Touchdowns – Losses
New Orleans Saints (Brandin Cooks): -33.33%
Cooks led the Saints with nine touchdown receptions last season but was held to three scores in his rookie campaign and could see a regression in his touchdown this year facing more difficult pass defenses. With a tougher schedule for both yardage and scores, Cooks might be getting over drafted a little bit as the 14th WR off the board according to our ADP data.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Mike Evans/Vincent Jackson): -30.77%
Receiving touchdowns were hard to come by for the Buccaneers’ wideouts last season with Evans and Jackson grabbing only three scores each. With Jameis Winston entering his second season, look for Evans and Jackson to both catch more than three touchdowns this year, however with a tougher schedule they will likely still be limited to single-digit scores.
Atlanta Falcons (Julio Jones): -18.75%
Jones caught eight of the Falcons 21 touchdown passes last season. He should get a high percentage of targets near the end zone again this season but it will be difficult to exceed last year’s total with a tougher schedule to contend with.
The next five:
- Carolina Panthers (Kelvin Benjamin/Ted Ginn/Devin Funchess): -13.33%
- New England Patriots (Julian Edelman): -12.50%
- Houston Texans (DeAndre Hopkins): -12.50%
- Miami Dolphins (Jarvis Landry/DeVante Parker): -12.50%
- Buffalo Bills (Sammy Watkins): -12.50%
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Brad Richter is a correspondent at FantasyPros and a contributor at DailyOverlay. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot.
