Will Giancarlo Stanton’s power earn him the NL home run title this year?
Be honest, you did not predict that Jonathan Villar would lead the league in stolen bases or Freddy Galvis would out-homer Adrian Gonzalez, or Robbie Ray would have more strikeouts than Clayton Kershaw. Here are some bold predictions, one for each NL team, for your consideration. You can also check out bold predictions for each team in the AL.
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NL West
Dodgers: Rich Hill tosses 200 innings to finish as a top-five starting pitcher
Rich Hill has been nothing short of sensational in the 24 starts since his return to the majors with 2.00 ERA in 139⅓ innings and a miniscule 0.92 WHIP. These are stats that only Clayton Kershaw has bettered. Although known for his groundball-inducing curveball, it was his fastball that did the most damage last season.
Now at the highest velocity of his career, the left-hander’s fastball results in more swings and misses (34.58%) than any other starter’s. It speaks volumes to the projected durability of Rich Hill, that the tech-savvy, sabermetric-loving Dodgers offered the 36-year-old a three-year, $48 million contract.
Rockies: Trevor Story will be a bust finishing outside the top-12 shortstops
A torn ligament in his thumb abruptly halted an amazing debut season in July for Trevor Story. Now, as the sophomore slump begins and pitchers have had time to adjust, the 24-year-old faces questions as to whether he will be able to produce at a level to keep pace with the plethora of stud shortstops in the game. He was never a particularly highly-ranked prospect, only peaking at number 99 according to MLB.com and although he had power in the minor leagues, contact issues were always a concern.
His 31.3% strikeout rate last season was not only the worst among shortstops, but it also ranked fifth worst among all hitters, with only Miguel Sano, Chris Carter, Chris Davis and Steven Souza Jr. striking out at a higher rate. He struggled with offspeed stuff, hitting just .228 and whiffing 111 times against 662 slider, curve and changeup pitches. Away from the hitter’s paradise of Coors Field, Story hit a mere .235 with .292 OBP and don’t get me started on 38.5% failure rate when stealing bases.
Padres: Hunter Renfroe wins NL Rookie of the Year
Hunter Renfroe is expected to be the Padres’ right fielder on Opening Day and, as long as he can keep hitting, there is little competition to prevent him from keeping the job all season.
The 24-year-old hit .306/.336/.557 with 30 home runs on his way to securing the MVP of the PCL, a title previously won by Nelson Cruz, Adam Eaton and Joc Pederson. In his short stint in the Major Leagues in 2016, he slugged .800 with four home runs in 11 games.
Giants: Matt Moore establishes himself as a top-12 starting pitcher
The left-hander had a disappointing 2015 season coming back from Tommy John surgery but appears to have overcome durability issues by setting career-highs last season with 33 game starts and 198⅓ innings pitched. He will benefit from the obvious advantages of pitching a full season in the National League and half of his starts should be within the spacious environs of AT&T Park.
Expect Matt Moore to build on last season’s career-low walk rate and maintain the uptick in swinging strike rate from 9.9% to 11.2%. Several highly respected prospect evaluators, including Baseball Prospectus, ranked Matt Moore ahead of Bryce Harper and Mike Trout in the 2012 Top-100 prospect lists, perhaps 2017 is the year he finally starts to look elite.
Diamondbacks: Paul Goldschmidt becomes the only first baseman this century to go 30/30
The top three picks in drafts last season were Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Paul Goldschmidt, with many people taking the Diamondbacks’ slugger based on his higher stolen base potential. Apparently 2016 was a down year for Paul Goldschmidt, although he became the only first baseman ever to steal 32 bases and hit 24 home runs.
He scored over 100 runs, drove in 95 and walked 15.6% of the time. Admittedly, he did become a little pull-happy (39.1% compared to 29.6% in 2015) but no other skills deteriorated and within the improved Diamondbacks’ lineup, 30-30 has to be a possibility.
NL Central
Reds: Joey Votto hits over .400
Joey Votto is a pitcher’s worst nightmare. He has no discernible hole, he hardly ever swings at balls outside the strike zone (20.8% – fifth best) and when he does swing at them, he usually makes contact (75.8% – top 25). He is more happy walking than anyone else in the game (251 walks over the last two years) and, arguably he is getting better.
In the second half of last season, he slashed a career-high .408/.490/.668 with 107 hits, 53 runs and 55 RBI. If he does not get off to a slow start again, 2017 could be historic.
Pirates: Joshua Bell finishes as a top-five first baseman
Pirates’ first baseman Josh Bell catapulted himself into fantasy relevance by sending a pinch-hit Grand Slam out of PNC Park against the Cubs on July 9. The switch-hitter went deep for a career-high 17 home runs in 2016 in 549 at-bats, split between Triple-A and the majors. The 24-year-old is expected to be Pirates’ first baseman on Opening Day, batting second ahead of Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte.
Two skills that set Josh Bell apart from most other young sluggers are his exemplary control of the strike zone (more walks than strikeouts in the majors last year and in Triple-A in 2015) and his ability to go opposite field (he led the league with 42.9%). He has always shown raw power, and if he can convert that into the projected range of 30 home runs, then top-five is a real possibility.
Brewers: Eric Thames & Ryan Braun combine for 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases
In 2015, Ryan Braun was only one stolen base shy of recording his third 25 home run and 25 stolen base season. Last year, the Brewers stole 30% more bases than the next highest team and although Braun’s personal tally dropped, he still exceeded 25 home runs for the eighth time in his career.
Eric Thames, the Brewers’ new first baseman, became an elite base-stealer in the KBO, with 40 bags in his debut season in 2015 whilst also hitting 47 home runs. He proved the power was no fluke last year with another 40 home runs. Look for these two players to combine with power and speed within the Brewers’ intriguing lineup.
Cubs: Javier Baez becomes an All-Star and leads the Cubs in stolen bases
At the moment, Javier Baez looks like a player without a position but his dynamism, exceptional defense and game-changing power should get him into Joe Maddon’s lineup every day. The speedy 24-year-old had three 20+ stolen base seasons in the minors and nabbed more bags last year than any other player on this year’s Cubs’ roster. He is still tagged with the reputation as a batting average drain with terrible plate discipline, however, this is a now little unfair.
In 2014, his strikeout rate was an unsightly 41.5% but last year it improved to 24%. His batting average jumped from .169 in 2014 to .274 last year, making it even higher than the highly-regarded Ben Zobrist.
Cardinals: Yadier Molina wins the NL batting title
Only the last six years and spanning more than 800 games, the Cardinals’ talisman has hit over .300, and that includes a couple of injury-ravaged seasons. Only seven players have hit higher and these include future Hall of Famers Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout.
Are the years behind the plate taking their toll? Maybe but maybe not, as Yadier Molina played a career-high 147 games in 2016 and his .368 AVG in the second half, was only bettered by Joey Votto.
NL East
Mets: Robert Gsellman outperforms all other Mets’ starters
The Mets have a formidable starting rotation, but they all have significant injury risks. Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz and Matt Harvey have all undergone off-season surgery, while Zack Wheeler is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. Noah Syndergaard played through pain and opted against surgery to remove bone spurs. Durability is not a word commonly associated with Mets’ pitchers.
Over the last five years, only R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon have exceeded 200 innings in any one season. Robert Gsellman, who has injury concerns of his own, was sensational when called up last season with 8.46 SO/9 and 54% groundball rate. With a mix of four good pitches, including a fastball that can hit 98 MPH, Gsellman looks good for a breakout 2017, and with good health, he could be the Mets’ star-performer.
Nationals: Trea Turner becomes the number one player in fantasy
Trea Turner slashed .342/.370/.567 with 13 home runs, 53 runs, 40 RBI and 33 stolen bases, finishing as a top-10 outfielder (offensive WAR), despite only playing 73 games. He has a better base-stealing success rate than Jonathan Villar or Starling Marte and will surely reach 60 stolen bases with greater knowledge of the pitchers. His power has grown year-on-year.
Five home runs as a 21-year-old, nine home runs the following year and then 19 home runs last season. 25 home runs in 2017 look like a low bar to clear. He scored 114 runs last year split between the two levels and this season will bat first or second ahead of Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper. 25 home runs, 60 stolen bases, 120 runs and a .300 AVG, all from the premium position of shortstop, will make him the number one fantasy player.
Marlins: Giancarlo Stanton leads the NL in home runs to become the most dominant slugger
Over the last four years, Giancarlo Stanton’s 115 home runs are more than Bryce Harper, Paul Goldschmidt or Nolan Arenado despite him playing significantly fewer games. On average he hits a home run every 14 at-bats. Kris Bryant hits one every 18 at-bats. All five of the hardest hit balls recorded by MLB Statcast last year were bombs from Giancarlo Stanton.
He also hit the longest home run at 504 ft and had the third fastest average exit velocity. There is no question; he has power. Health has been the only limiting factor.
Fortunately, his ailments have all been different injuries and not recurring ones (knee, hamstring, facial and hand), so there is no reason to believe that he will not play 162 games. And if he does, prepare for fireworks.
Braves: Freddie Freeman and Matt Kemp become the game’s most feared three & four hitters
Matt Kemp slugged .567 in the second half, not missing a beat after his midseason trade to the Braves. The veteran left fielder finished the season with 35 home runs and 108 RBI with, for the first time since 2010, a sub-.300 BABIP. He reduced his groundballs to 39.9 GB% and increased flyballs to 39.7 FB%, but he was not just a home run hitter, with only 12 players having more extra-base hits.
Talking about extra-base hits, only David Ortiz hit more than the Braves’ first baseman Freddie Freeman. The 27-year-old enjoyed a power surge with 34 home runs, 91 RBI and these 83 XBH. There was also a big spike in his hard-hit ball rate, up from 38.4% to 43.5% and he hit a career-high 40.5 FB%.
With Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson setting the table, Kemp and Freeman look likely to become the most feared three/four duo in the game.
Phillies: Hector Neris saves 40 games to finish as a top-5 closer
Jeanmar Gomez was not on anyone’s radar last spring, yet he recorded 37 saves. Veteran Joaquin Benoit is listed as the closer on the Phillies’ depth chart, but the team has yet formally anointed him. The 39-year-old only has three saves over the last two years and struggled with the Mariners (5.18 ERA in 26 appearances) last season but admittedly was lights-out after moving to the Blue Jays.
Hector Neris is arguably the best reliever in the Phillies’ bullpen. He was one of only eight relief pitchers to reach 100 strikeouts last season, and he did so with 11.43 SO/9 and 15.4% swinging strike rate. If the 27-year-old wins the job out of Spring Training, he could hold it all year.
AL Bold Predictions
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Gavin Tramps is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Gavin, check out his archive or find him @_tramps.
