Manny Machado should continue to lead the way for the O’s
The Baltimore Orioles finished the 2016 season at 89-73 and lost to the Toronto Blue Jays and the “villain” himself – Jose Bautista – in dramatic fashion in the Wild Card game. Superstar third baseman Manny Machado put in another healthy year, though the stolen bases from 2015 completely vanished and now seem like a performance outlier. Kevin Gausman continued his ascent toward being a legitimate ace with a run of dominance in the second half (10 QS, 8 W, 5 starts with 0 ER allowed), which helped carry his team towards a Wild Card berth.
The Orioles’ roster has largely remained the same heading into 2017, which is likely why projection systems have them forecasted to win between 73 and 79 games this season. General Manager Dan Duquette hasn’t made a significant move to address the starting rotation and actually traded away Yovani Gallardo for outfielder Seth Smith. At the Orioles FanFest, Duquette said the rotation pitched well in September and he hopes that trend continues into 2017.
It’s possible that trend continues with a top-three that features two potential aces in Gausman and Dylan Bundy, along with Chris Tillman, who is better suited as a solid No. 3 starter. Beyond that, you’re relying on borderline replacement level players such as Ubaldo Jimenez, Wade Miley, Tyler Wilson, and Mike Wright to flesh out the rest of the rotation. However, relying on the home run, a stellar bullpen and your top three starting pitchers continuing to improve makes it seem like the 2017 team is really just the 2016 team all over again.
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Projected Lineup
- Hyun-Soo Kim/Joey Rickard – LF
- Manny Machado – 3B
- Adam Jones – CF
- Chris Davis – 1B
- Mark Trumbo – DH
- Jonathan Schoop – 2B
- Seth Smith/Joey Rickard – RF
- Welington Castillo – C
- J.J. Hardy – SS
Notes: The Orioles’ outfield situation is a bit murky beyond Adam Jones. There are two likely platoons taking place in the corner outfield, with Joey Rickard being the weak side of the platoon in each instance. Chris Davis battled a dislocated thumb injury for much of last season, so it’s not unlikely to see him hit for a slightly better average and top 40 home runs again. If there is one player you shouldn’t sleep on in this lineup it would be Welington Castillo. He has 20-home run potential at the catcher position in an incredibly weak class and will get everyday playing time. Think of him as producing Salvador Perez fantasy numbers, without the Salvador Perez cost.
Projected Rotation
- Chris Tillman
- Kevin Gausman
- Dylan Bundy
- Ubaldo Jimenez
- Wade Miley/Mike Wright/Tyler Wilson
Notes: The only starters in the rotation with fantasy relevance are Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy. Chris Tillman has been the de facto “ace” for some time now, but he’s more of a slightly above average starter on the mound and should only be considered a streaming option. He will likely make 30 starts, though, so there’s something to be said for reliability. If you’re looking for a major surprise or breakout candidate here, you likely won’t find it. Everyone already knows about the ascent of Gausman towards ace status and Bundy, who reportedly won’t be on an innings limit, is back to top-of-mind for fantasy owners again.
Projected Bullpen
- Zach Britton – Closer
- Darren O’Day
- Brad Brach
- Mychal Givens
- Oliver Drake/Donnie Hart
Notes: Britton returns as one of the most effective and dominant closers in all of baseball, but don’t expect him to repeat his perfect performance from last season, including the sub-1.00 ERA. Britton will likely earn 40 saves this season, but waiting in the wings in the event of an injury or trade is Brad Brach. Don’t expect him to win 10 games again, but snagging a handful of save opportunities and piling on the strikeouts is worth rostering.
Stud: Manny Machado
An honorable mention to Chris Davis, Kevin Gausman, and Zach Britton, but Manny Machado is one of the five best players in all of baseball – period. He followed up his breakout campaign in 2015 with a very similar season in 2016, minus the stolen bases. It’s not difficult to imagine Machado putting up MVP-caliber numbers for a third year in a row while also maintaining eligibility at both third base and shortstop across many fantasy leagues.
Bounce-Back Candidate: Chris Davis
Chris Davis is a man among men. Just one muscle in any part of his body could send a baseball over the fences, but last season came across as a bit disappointing. Not only did his average hover around .200 for most of the season, his ability to drive the ball seemed to come and go. The culprit – a dislocated thumb. He still managed to swat 38 home runs, so expecting a little extra power output this season wouldn’t be unreasonable. Add in that he’s now healthy, and you have a player that is likely to bounce back to something closer to his 2015 form.
Sleeper: Joey Rickard
A former Rule 5 Draft pick, Joey Rickard had a strong Grapefruit League showing and a strong first month of the season in 2016. This led to him being viewed as a potential breakout rookie. He then began to struggle in May and dealt with a string of injuries before being able to prove he could turn it around. In the little amount he did play in June and July (27 games and 80 at-bats), Rickard batted .313 with a .345 OBP. If he hits well during the at-bats he’s allotted in the first month of the season, he could squeeze himself into more regular playing time. He stole 73 bases over his four minor league seasons, so the potential for picking up double-digit stolen bases is there.
Bust: J.J. Hardy
J.J. Hardy still plays stellar defense at shortstop, but, unfortunately, the offensive skills that made him a fantasy darling at the position are all but gone. He doesn’t stay healthy enough to be counted on for a full season, and at 34 years old he’s likely not sniffing close to 15 home runs again and doesn’t provide much offensive value elsewhere.
Late-Round Flier: Hyun-Soo Kim
Currently, Kim is projected to receive the vast majority of at-bats in left field. With that said, Manager Buck Showalter doesn’t seem sold Kim can hit lefties to truly be an everyday player. Last season Kim managed just 18 at-bats against lefties which amounted to zero hits. He’s likely to receive more playing time against lefties early on to see if he can handle it. He was impressive overall during his rookie campaign, though the power potential we heard about prior to his signing proved to be a bit exaggerated, with him managing just six homers over 95 games in 2016. He’s worth a selection in the closing rounds, or for a buck or two at auction, given that he has proven his ability to hit for a high average and get on base at an above average rate.
Prospect to Watch: Chance Sisco (C)
Rated as a Top 100 prospect in all of baseball, and the second best prospect in the Orioles’ farm system, Chance Sisco will likely get an opportunity to play in the big leagues at some point in 2017. Sisco has an excellent feel for the strike zone, having hit at every stop of his professional career so far, and profiles as more of a doubles hitter with the ability to draw walks at an above average rate.
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Lance Rinker is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Lance, check out his archive or follow him @LanceMRinker.
