Gerald Everett may need to bulk up if he wants to succeed as an NFL TE
R.C. Fischer takes a look the early 2017 NFL Draft valuations ahead of the NFL Combine.
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It’s only February, and we’ve yet to hit the NFL Combine, so a lot is going to change on NFL Draft prospect rankings, mock drafts, and dynasty rookie draft projections over the next two months. But we’re taking a look at the NFL Draft ‘market’ as it stands today and some potential fantasy impacts.
In the offseason, my career surrounds studying all the incoming college talent and sharing my findings/evaluations with NFL and CFL teams and a growing subscriber base among dynasty and fantasy football owners. I’ve watched several games’ worth of tape on these prospects and analyzed their performance through a statistical, Moneyball-like scouting computer model. I update the prospects after we get the key measurables from the NFL Combine and at Pro Days. At this stage of my evaluations and after talking with other personnel people in the league, here’s a look at a couple of 2017 tight end prospects I believe are running overvalued at this juncture…
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David Njoku (Miami)
*Current 2017 NFL Draft Projection: late first or second round
In most NFL Drafts, Njoku would be the clear top tight end prospect. He’s what the NFL craves – 6′4″+, 240+ pounds with a big, sturdy frame. He’s a great 1990s tight end – big body and suspect hands. When I watch Njoku on tape, I see a slower 40-time version of Eric Ebron – moves around nicely for a big man with not the smoothest hands in the receiving game.
Ebron was an absolute fraud of a top draft prospect in 2014 (after Ebron went the following three picks: 2016 Pro Bowl OT Taylor Lewan, Odell Beckham and Aaron Donald). Ebron clearly struggled to catch the ball in college and struggled to catch the ball in pre-draft workouts (spoiler alert – Ebron had the third-highest ‘drops’ percentage of receivers who saw 50 or more targets last NFL season). I see some Ebron similarities in Njoku – he’s a big guy but doesn’t catch the ball all that smoothly…and is doing so in a year where there are more legit NFL tight end prospects than in any year I can recall.
Njoku is the type of tight end for yesteryear. He’s not the receiving threat his 2017 NFL Draft peers are. He has NFL size, but he’s not off the charts in any way. He is an NFL-worthy TE prospect, just not a top three tight end in his class.
ESPN, currently, has Njoku listed as their highest-graded tight end (they won’t for long). I see Njoku tracking as a #25–50 prospect for the draft overall in most places, but I suspect he’ll fall from the top 50 after the NFL Combine.
From a fantasy perspective, unless Njoku comes in a lot taller and faster than advertised – I don’t see him going to an NFL team with a high-powered offense that makes the tight end a weapon. No matter where he winds up – there may be a ‘hands’ issue.
Adam Shaheen (Ashland)
*Current 2017 NFL Draft projection: fourth round to undrafted
My takeaway from watching some of his game tape – a stiff, D1 slow/D2 fast 6′5″+, 270+ pound tight end prospect who physically dominated a lower level of competition. He has numbers/he can catch the ball – 57 catches for 867 yards and 16 TDs last season.
Shaheen is a former D2 basketball player at Pittsburgh-Johnstown, who transferred to Ashland to play football and lit up the stat sheets. His general underdog story and his overall size are drawing attention from scouts and fans. The story seems neat, but the reality is more likely that Shaheen does not move quickly enough to translate well to the NFL.
From a fantasy football standpoint, Shaheen is likely to need two-to-three years of seasoning before he’d make a dent in the league. The story is nice, but the time frame is too long, and his athleticism is below average compared to this quality tight end class.
Gerald Everett (South Alabama)
*Current 2017 NFL Draft projection: second to third round
Everett played tight end in college, but there’s no way he’ll be an NFL tight end…at least, not without a lot of work in the weight room. I’m not sure that would work either. He’s 6′3″/220+ with a very skinny frame and very small hands (8.3″ as measured at the Senior Bowl).
You would never look at Everett for the first time and think he’s a tight end. You watch him on tape, and you’d laugh even louder – he’s eaten up by the defensive ends and outside linebackers, he’d try to block.
It’s not all negative with Everett – he’s a solid receiver. Good hands. He can play.
The problem is he is a ‘tweener’ that’s not likely to have a home in the NFL. He’s too small for a tight end but too slow, it appears, to be an impact wide receiver…I think that’s why he ended up at tight end.
Everett is likely to run a 4.7+ 40-time and start to drop in the draft rankings. He’s faced with cutting weight to get faster but then looking less and like a tight end, or doing the reverse and coming in even slower at the NFL Combine.
For fantasy, Everett is in a no man’s land. He’s not a big enough frame to be a dominant wide receiver or red zone threat, but he’s not big enough and athletic enough to work underneath as a tight end weapon. He’s in the Jordan Reed style of tight end but has nowhere near the frame to take and deliver beatings like Reed does.
There’s a place in the NFL world for Everett, maybe, but it’s not among the top 100 overall picks. I’m not sure he’s a top overall 150 prospect. He’s going to need to run a sub-4.6 40-time at the NFL Combine to get me to rethink my scouting on him.
Overvalued NFL Draft Targets: RB
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Look for more of my team’s NFL Draft scouting reports, measurables, mock drafts and dynasty rookie rankings before and after the NFL Draft, right up to the beginning of the new NFL season at CollegeFootballMetrics.com. See our NFL/fantasy analysis all year round at FantasyFootballMetrics.com.
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