Deshaun Watson’s winning ways might not translate to NFL success

R.C. Fischer takes a look the early 2017 NFL Draft QB valuations ahead of the NFL Combine.

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It’s only February, and we’ve yet to hit the NFL Combine, so much is going to change on NFL Draft prospect rankings, mock drafts and dynasty rookie draft projections over the next two months. But we’re taking a look at the NFL Draft ‘market’ as it stands today and some potential fantasy impacts.

In the offseason, my career surrounds studying all the incoming college talent and sharing my findings/evaluations with NFL and CFL teams and a growing subscriber base among dynasty and fantasy football owners. I’ve watched several games’ worth of tape on these prospects and analyzed their performance through a statistical, Moneyball-like scouting computer model. I update the prospects after we get the key measurables from the NFL Combine and at Pro Days. At this stage of my evaluations and after talking with other personnel people in the league, here’s a look at a couple of 2017 quarterback prospects I believe are running undervalued at this juncture.

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Deshaun Watson (Clemson)
*Current 2017 NFL Draft projection: from first overall to second round

It’s not that I’m predicting Deshaun Watson will be an NFL bust – although, I think that discussion is on the table. I believe Watson is overrated by those who are pushing him as the top quarterback in this class or as a top-five pick overall.

Everyone should get their antennae raised up anytime football analysts proclaim their love for a QB prospect with their scouting explanation being that the quarterback is ‘a winner.’ It’s a cop-out. It’s a thing analysts and NFL head coaches say when they’ve only had limited exposure to watching all of the draft prospect options.

Everyone in the football business watches the college national championship game – so, there’s a familiarity, a comfort with Watson. Every time extremely busy analysts, scouts, and NFL coaches have seen Watson, he is having a very good game against a vaunted Alabama program.

What’s not taken into consideration is Watson’s questionable translation to the NFL as a passer, and also ignored is him struggling in the playoff games prior to the championship game. In his two playoff games leading into his two Alabama title clashes the past two seasons, Watson averaged a weak 58.2% completion percentage with a flimsy 223.0 passing yards per game along with two TD passes/three interceptions.

We’ve all seen very good college quarterbacks shine for dominant college teams and then go to the pros and struggle mightily. There should be more debate on whether Watson has NFL passer skills, but the ‘winner’ label is being tossed around to mask some of his deficiencies as a pro passer. Watson has the physical tools for the NFL, but in my tape analysis, I did not see a pro style or pro-ready passer.

There are far superior pocket passers available in this draft, and I also believe Watson’s running skills are a bit overrated. He’s a legit NFL prospect, but not the hands-down top NFL prospect at quarterback.

For Watson to matter for fantasy 2017 and beyond, an NFL team is going to have to redo their offense built around Watson as a shotgun spread passer. If Watson is taken by a traditional pocket passing team and pushed to work that system – he’s going to struggle being remade in that role. He wouldn’t have a fantasy payoff for a few years as a pocket passer…if ever paying off.

On my CollegeFootballMetrics.com website, my top mock draft expert, who’s been graded as one of the top mock drafters in the country the past two years, and who has his ear to the ground on such things – he recently dropped Watson out of his first round mock. This is not a good sign of where Watson is trending with the NFL personnel departments in reality.

DeShone Kizer (Notre Dame)
*Current 2017 NFL Draft projection: from second overall to third round

I am stunned that DeShone Kizer is getting love as a first round prospect. For some, he’s their top overall quarterback prospect. Deshaun Watson, I understand him getting a push as the top QB prospect in this NFL Draft…there’s some merit in that thinking that, even though I don’t agree.

However, with Kizer, I don’t get the draft hype at all. When I studied Kizer’s college work, I thought he would have to fight to become a day-two pick projection, and yet I see him currently ranked as the first QB prospect in this class by many mock drafters.

Kizer has a rocket arm and ran the ball well in college, but a deeper look would reveal problems with his ability to read defenses, and he does not have weapon-like foot speed for the NFL at quarterback. He’s Blake Bortles fast. Kizer often makes one read off the shotgun snap and then fires at a predetermined, pre-snap choice or takes off running if the first option is not open.

He’s not comfortable sitting in the pocket picking apart defenses. He’s a developmental quarterback at best – but there are loud whispers about his work ethic and desire for the game, which would make the developmental part a big question. I don’t know how a questionable pocket passer with overrated mobility and questionable desire (and who had a 4-8 record at Notre Dame last season) is going to wind up as a top draft pick expected to turn around an NFL franchise instantly.

At best, Kizer is going to need a few years of development. He’s not ready to go out of the box. That being the case, he is wildly overvalued in draft rankings at this stage.

My mock draft guru has Kizer projected going 10th overall to Buffalo, currently. He thinks NFL front offices are more buying into Kizer hype more than Watson at this stage. Analysts are once again overrating ‘arm strength’ with QB prospects.

Nathan Peterman (Pittsburgh)
*Current 2017 NFL Draft projection: third – fourth round

Many scouts and analysts are in love with Peterman, and I cannot understand why. He’s a nice kid and a fine college quarterback…a nice short/safe passer and game manager. He’s not a down-the-field assassin as a passer.

He had great numbers in his big win over Clemson this year (five TDs/zero INTs and 308 yards passing), and that is leading some football people to leap to a conclusion that the Clemson game was a flash of a huge upside. I think all the other games in his college career should be more telling than one lucky/career game against Clemson.

That one game against Clemson was the only time in Peterman’s career that he threw for over 290 yards in a game. He’s a classic dink and dunk quarterback.

Peterman as a back-end-of-the-draft, developmental quarterback prospect – I guess I could see it. I wouldn’t make that pick, but I could understand a team seeing Kirk Cousins possibilities. However, after looking at all of the top QB prospects for this draft, I have no idea how anyone could have Peterman at the top of their list…or even in the top three-to-five among them.

He got a media push heading into the Senior Bowl week, but as the week unraveled and in the game itself, Peterman was exposed as just a ‘good’ college quarterback who might hold a clipboard someday in the NFL. Peterman has too limited of a skill set and relatively weak overall passer instincts that should not warrant him being drafted highly.

Look for more of my team’s NFL Draft scouting reports, measurables, mock drafts, and dynasty rookie rankings before and after the NFL Draft, right up to the beginning of the new NFL season, at CollegeFootballMetrics.com. See our NFL/fantasy analysis all year round at FantasyFootballMetrics.com.

Overvalued NFL Draft Targets: RB

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