Undervalued NFL Draft Targets: RBs (Fantasy Football)

R.C. Fischer takes a look the early 2017 NFL Draft valuations ahead of the NFL Combine.

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It’s only February, and we’ve yet to hit the NFL Combine, so a lot is going to change on NFL Draft prospect rankings, mock drafts, and dynasty rookie draft projections over the next two months, but we’re taking a look at the NFL Draft ‘market’ as it stands today and some potential fantasy impacts.

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In the offseason, my career surrounds studying all the incoming college talent and sharing my findings/evaluations with NFL and CFL teams and a growing subscriber base among dynasty and fantasy football owners. I’ve watched several games’ worth of tape on these prospects and analyzed their performance through a statistical, Moneyball-like scouting computer model. I update the prospects after we get the key measurables from the NFL Combine and at Pro Days. At this stage of my evaluations and after talking with other personnel people in the league, here’s a look at a couple of 2017 running back prospects I believe are running undervalued at this juncture…

Brian Hill (Wyoming)
Current 2017 NFL Draft projection: 4th–6th round

Back-to-back 1,600+ yard rushing seasons in 2015–2016, and scored 22 rushing TDs last season. He led the NCAA in rushing attempts with 349 in 2016. Wyoming doesn’t typically spawn draftable running back prospects, but Brian Hill is about to break that chain.

Hill has been a machine for Wyoming – 20 or more carries in a game in 26 of his last 31 games. The guy barely takes a play off. He’s rushed for 100+ yards in a game 20 times in his last 31 games, and posted 200+ yards rushing in six of those games.

Hill is 6′0″/215–220 pounds and has a great knack for finding running lanes and terrific balance to absorb hits and not get derailed. He reminds me a bit of Tevin Coleman – a guy who doesn’t look fast when he first has the ball and he’s looking for running space…but then, ‘pop’, he streaks through an open hole and is very difficult to catch in the open field.

If Hill can run in the 4.4’s or low 4.5’s in the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, and if he can do so closer to 220 pounds, then his stock will rise towards more of a third-round pick. He’s a gifted runner that isn’t getting as much discussion as he deserves.

Hill is likely going to be drafted to backup an established starter, so his fantasy values rides on what team he lands with. If he can fall in with a team that has a soft starter, Hill might be able to stage a coup in the preseason to get more playing time right away.

D’onta Foreman (Texas)
Current 2017 NFL Draft projection: 3rd–5th round of the draft

How a 6′1″/249-pound running back prospect gets overlooked – I have no idea. Foreman ran for 100+ yards in every game he played in 2016 – 11 games with 100+ yards rushing. Actually, it was all 11 games with 120+ yards rushing. Over half of those games (6), Foreman ran for 150+ yards in a game. If Texas were a better football team, D’Onta Foreman might have been a more serious contender for the Heisman.

If you’ve not seen him play, a 6′1″/249-pound running back with a bunch of rushing accolades conjures up images of a big, bruising RB prospect who just mauls defenders. However, that’s not the case here. What makes Foreman unique is that he’s a giant human at running back, but runs like a nimble, finesse 220-pound running back. He has shifty feet and shocking speed/burst for his size. He reminds me of a better version of Derrick Henry.

There’s a downside to this story – six fumbles in 11 games last season…resulting in six lost fumbles. If not for the fumble issue you might be looking at a guy ranked among the top three RB prospects for 2017. If Foreman runs in the 4.5’s in the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine and does so at 240+ pounds – a big debate is going to break out on whether he is that top three guy among RB prospects or whether the fumbles issue scares everyone off.

His NFL Combine could lead to him being a debate for fantasy – a guy who’s built for 8-10 TDs a season…or a a guy who will fumble his way out of the NFL quickly?

Samaje Perine (Oklahoma)
Current 2017 NFL Draft projection: 3rd–4th round

With all the focus on notorious Oklahoma RB prospect Joe Mixon…his running back mate Samaje Perine is getting overlooked. It’s a shame, because from my early look – Perine is the better prospect than Mixon.

Perine averaged 1,374 yards rushing and 17.0 TDs per season the past three years at Oklahoma, working with Mixon some of that time. Perine rushed for 200+ yards in a game six times in his college career (Mixon doing so just once). Perine also had that infamous, record-setting day as a freshman in 2014 – 427 yards rushing and 5 TDs in one game versus Kansas.

With all the accomplishments of Perine, all people want to discuss is Joe Mixon. Perine is the more accomplished runner in college (at the same school/behind the same O-Line), is physically bigger at 235 pounds (Mixon is 225), and is a much better blocker (something the NFL covets).

Perine reminds me of a lesser version of Jordan Howard. Neither are classic speedster running backs, but both are physical, patient runners and use their size to push for extra yards. Perine needs a great showing at the NFL Combine to get himself higher up in the draft rankings, and ahead of Mixon.

Perine would be drafted to backup a starter, as of right now…so his fantasy stock is more on the handcuff side. A great showing at the NFL Combine could move him to being drafted to play situationally right away and then just steal the job – just like Jordan Howard did in 2016.

Leonard Fournette (LSU)
Current 2017 NFL Draft projection: a first-round projection for one and all

How could Leonard Fournette be on an undervalued RB prospect report? I am surprised to see two things when it comes to Fournette on draft rankings today: (1) Dalvin Cook ranked ahead of him for a few. (2) Fournette outside the top 10 overall draft prospects.

I would say that anyone who ranks Fournette behind Dalvin Cook is completely out of their minds. That would be like an open draft of NFL players and a team drafting Devonta Freeman ahead of David Johnson. It’s ridiculous. I’m not anti-Cook, but Fournette is a prospect on a whole other level. Secondly, Fournette is a better prospect for the NFL than Ezekiel Elliott was…and we just saw Dallas draft Ezekiel #4 overall and the world rejoiced about it all year. If off-an-ACL Todd Gurley goes #10 overall in 2015 and Ezekiel Elliott goes #4 overall, and Fournette is at a minimum ‘as good’ a prospect as both of them – then Fournette is going top 10 overall in the 2017 NFL Draft. I believe he will go top five now that Dallas taking Elliott among the top five gives NFL GMs the green light to start going gung ho after running backs again. Taking running backs very high in the draft was normal for decades, and then it wasn’t considered cool around 2010–2014, but now all the cool kids are drafting stud running backs highly (again) in 2015–2016.

Fournette’s fantasy value will be determined with what team he lands on. No matter how talented Fournette is, an NFL team can enhance or destroy his output/value. You’d think it not possible that Todd Gurley would be made to look awful/useless in the NFL, but you’ve never met Jeff Fisher…and there are other a few other Fisher-a-like run offenses Fournette could fall in with. David Johnson was running third string halfway into his rookie season. Logic does not usually rule the day in the NFL. In the right offense, I believe, Fournette will eclipse what Elliott achieved in 2016.

Look for more of my team’s NFL Draft scouting reports, measurables, mock drafts, and dynasty rookie rankings before and after the NFL Draft, right up to the beginning of the new NFL season at CollegeFootballMetrics.com. See our NFL/fantasy analysis all year round at FantasyFootballMetrics.com.

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