Davis Webb continues to be undervalued despite his impressive Senior Bowl performance
R.C. Fischer takes a look the early 2017 NFL Draft valuations ahead of the NFL Combine.
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It’s only February, and we’ve yet to hit the NFL Combine, so much is going to change on NFL Draft prospect rankings, mock drafts, and dynasty rookie draft projections over the next two months, but we’re taking a look at the NFL Draft ‘market’ as it stands today and some potential fantasy impacts.
In the offseason, my career surrounds studying all the incoming college talent and sharing my findings/evaluations with NFL and CFL teams and a growing subscriber base among dynasty and fantasy football owners. I’ve watched several games worth of tape on these prospects and analyzed their performance through a statistical, Moneyball-like scouting computer model. I update the prospects after we get the key measurables from the NFL Combine and at Pro Days. At this stage of my evaluations and after talking with other personnel people in the league, here’s a look at a couple of 2017 quarterback prospects I believe are running undervalued at this juncture.
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Davis Webb (Cal)
Current 2017 NFL Draft projection: 3rd–5th round mostly
Webb was the quarterback ‘star’ of the Senior Bowl week and the MVP of the game itself, and he’s still not getting the draft momentum he deserves. Webb is still being painted with a broad scouting brush that dismisses college quarterbacks from wide-open, heavy-pass attempt offenses. The fact that Jared Goff was so highly rated from this Cal offense and then suddenly came to be seen as an NFL bust after his underwhelming Rams debut is not helping Webb’s NFL Draft stock.
Webb has size (6′5″/229), the arm ability, and the passer instincts needed to be a starting NFL quarterback. He’s had great college success as a passer, and he’s a tireless worker in the film room and on the practice field. He’s a team leader with high character. He’s everything you think NFL teams will be looking for. But the high-octane college offense bias and Goff’s 2016 perceived failure are anchors tied around his neck/draft stock.
I believe once the draft prospect studies get deeper and more intense over the next two months that Webb will slowly rise among the ranks and be considered one of the top three quarterback prospects for the 2017 NFL Draft.
Draft stock is so critical for fantasy upside (or downside). A guy like Webb pushes into the top 50 overall and a team could take him with a purpose of pushing him to start as a rookie, at some point. If he falls past the third round, he’s more likely to be grabbed by a team with an established starter to be their backup and/or developmental option. It could be years before he gets a chance to show what he has to offer in that secnario. I’m a Webb fan, so I am very interested to see where his draft stock heads post-NFL Combine to start setting his MFL draft and dynasty rookie draft values.
Jerod Evans (Virginia Tech)
Current 2017 NFL Draft projection: 4th–7th round mostly
For those who are looking for a mobile quarterback with a track record of success, I would argue Jerod Evans is every bit of the prospect that people believe Deshaun Watson is. Actually, I think Evans might be a better pro prospect than Watson at this stage.
Evans is not a perfect pocket passer in the classical sense. Like Watson, Evans is more comfortable in a spread offense utilizing quick delivery/decision-making on passes. I would argue that Evans has a better arm and better size and that he is a far superior runner of the ball compared to Watson. Evans is the one true mobile quarterback weapon in this draft. You can argue about his ability and upside as a pocket passer (a legit debate point), but at 235+ pounds with projected 4.6+ speed, Evans is like a top running back prospect who can play quarterback. He runs like a bully and is a threat to keep it himself and score every time near the goal line. Evans is like a poor man’s Cam Newton as a runner. Overall, I think Evans is a better pro prospect than his current draft rankings would suggest.
He’s one of the more intriguing QB prospects from a fantasy perspective because he is legitimately the best dual threat QB option out of the 2017 NFL Draft class. He may not be the top fantasy rookie QB in a six points per pass TD and 300+ passing yards bonus scoring system, but in a traditional four points per pass TD league – where rushing yards among QBs is a premium – Evans could be a bit of a fantasy shocker. What his NFL Combine speed-agility is could really change the game (good or bad) with Evans.
Antonio Pipkin (Tiffin)
Current 2017 NFL Draft projection: 6th-7th round or UDFA mostly
After a solid week of Senior Bowl practices, Pipkin entered the Senior Bowl game itself and saw all the scouts’ greatest fear on him come to life – Pipkin was visibly rattled on the bigger stage and threw a couple of horrific interceptions. Pipkin was already under a lot of doubt being from a small school background. Then the Senior Bowl turnovers happened, and it’s pretty much nailed his coffin shut among many evaluators. I think that is shortsighted.
Coming from one of the lowest levels of college football play and then being thrust into Senior Bowl week can be a little daunting. When I watched Pipkin at the Senior Bowl practices, I thought he was a little rattled his first day, but by the final day of practices I felt Pipkin moved his way up to being the second-best QB talent in Mobile. He had the best arm speed/velocity of any QB prospect at Senior Bowl week and has one of the best arms, maybe the single best arm, in this year’s draft class. He’s also very mobile — a 4.6+ runner. He’s a dual-threat QB prospect.
When I scouted him at Tiffin, I also saw a beautiful ability to throw with touch and accuracy. I walked away from his scouting wondering if he was a Russell Wilson-like diamond in the rough (Pipkin is 6’0″+ tall). I still believe that’s on the table, but that Senior Bowl game performance is really going to damn him going forward. There are skills to work with here, and hopefully an NFL team willing to make that investment will draft him.
Pipkin has a little more potential fantasy value than most ‘deep sleeper’ QB prospects in this draft because he is highly mobile to go along with his physical tools as a passer.
Overvalued NFL Draft Targets: QB
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