Undervalued NFL Draft Targets: TE (Fantasy Football)

R.C. Fischer takes a look the early 2017 NFL Draft valuations ahead of the NFL Combine.

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It’s only February, and we’ve yet to hit the NFL Combine, so much is going to change on NFL Draft prospect rankings, mock drafts, and dynasty rookie draft projections over the next two months, but we’re taking a look at the NFL Draft ‘market’ as it stands today and some potential fantasy impacts.

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In the offseason, my career surrounds studying all the incoming college talent and sharing my findings/evaluations with NFL and CFL teams and a growing subscriber base among dynasty and fantasy football owners. I’ve watched several games’ worth of tape on these prospects and analyzed their performance through a statistical, Moneyball-like scouting computer model. I update the prospects after we get the key measurables from the NFL Combine and at Pro Days. Recently, I took a look at TE prospects that are overvalued. At this stage of my evaluations and after talking with other personnel people in the league, here’s a look at a couple of 2017 tight end prospects I believe are running undervalued at this juncture.

Michael Roberts (Toledo)
Current 2017 NFL Draft projection: Day Three selection

Somehow a tight end scoring 16 TDs last season flies under the radar. Roberts’s 2016 season was deemed ‘not good enough’ by the Senior Bowl, as he was originally not offered but was later extended an invite as a buzz started with Roberts at the East-West Shrine game. Roberts was the best tight end at the East-West game and went to the Senior Bowl week right after and held his own there – amidst the best class of tight end prospects I’ve ever seen in Mobile.

Not only did Roberts hold his own, but he is displaying his football skills with fantastic physical measurables – 6’4″/261 with massive 11.6″ hands. He’s working at an NFL size that scouts should love but they are only applying ‘sleeper’ labels to Roberts at this point while worshipping a less athletic, 10-15 pounds smaller-framed tight end David Njoku from Miami, Florida. Everything a scout could say about Njoku could be said about Roberts. The one knock on Roberts is his blocking, but from what scouts saw at the Senior Bowl week, that’s a fabricated concern as well. Roberts moves very well for his size. It’s one of the intriguing attributes he brings to the table. NFL size+ with nimble feet.

At this stage, Roberts is getting a ‘Day Three’ scouting projection, but if he runs well at the NFL Combine, Roberts could shoot into the top 75 in short order.

Roberts is potentially the better fantasy prospect over Njoku because he is likely to measure ‘bigger’ than Njoku in every way and yet have comparable speed-agility-strength numbers. Roberts gives you the size and athleticism to excited about – a tight end that can stay on the field all three downs and can dominate defenders in the passing game with his size-athleticism.

Jake Butt (Michigan)
Current 2017 NFL Draft projection: third to fourth round.

Butt has lost a lot of draft momentum since last season. It’s not that Butt did anything wrong, it’s just a simple fact that this 2017 draft class is loaded with quality at tight end. In 2015, Butt might have been considered the top tight end in the draft. In 2016, he would have been in the argument for best in class. In 2017, he’s debatable to be in the top 5.

Butt’s talent is ‘boring’ among this draft class. He’s a quality blocker, a reliable receiver, has NFL size and will fit into an NFL locker room as an eventual leader at some point. He’s not a flashy prospect, just a high-quality one. Most NFL coaches crave the ‘throwback ‘ tight ends – the Jason Witten types. And they’ll love Jake Butt as well. He’ll end up going on Day Two and not sliding to Day Three, as many analysts project him at today.

For fantasy, the case for Jake Butt will be made at the NFL Combine. If he runs a 4.75 or better 40-time then he becomes an argument for a Jason Witten, Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz type tight end prospect. And then fantasy GMs will have to see if Butt lands in a favorable offense to have a more instant impact.

Blake Jarwin (Oklahoma State)
Current 2017 NFL Draft projection: seventh round to undrafted

Jarwin is going to be an interesting draft case. He was seldomly used as an H-Back for Oklahoma State. He was a blocker in the backfield and had an occasional slip out for a pass option. His tape isn’t that exciting because he didn’t see the ball much, but when he did there was something there. Jarwin is more tight end sized than an H-Back at 6’4″/245 (projected). He moved well out of the backfield for OSU. There’s a bounce in his step for his size and he displayed nice hands when thrown the ball. It’s possible that Jarwin was radically underutilized in college.

Jarwin reminds me a bit of scouting Cameron Brate at Harvard back in 2014. Brate wasn’t drafted but was a do-all tight end for the Crimson. Brate didn’t get a real UDFA NFL contract at first, instead only getting a tryout for a contract…kind of a slap in the face for an undrafted prospect. Brate impressed at his tryout, and three seasons later he just led all NFL tight ends in TDs (8). Jarwin has the same look/feel to me – a raw, but talented prospect. A little thin, needs to add bulk (as Brate did), but good hands and moves in the passing game given his size. Jarwin is a ‘deep sleeper’ prospect.

I am hoping Jarwin turns some heads at the NFL Combine. Heck, I am just hoping he gets invited to the NFL Combine…

O.J. Howard (Alabama)
Current 2017 NFL Draft projection: mostly #20-40 overall

It seems silly to have O.J. Howard on an ‘undervalued’ draft list, but I think there is a case for it. Everyone on the planet loves Howard for the NFL Draft. He’s a first-round projection for almost every analyst and scouting service I’ve seen. People who are ‘really excited’ about Howard will go as far as listing him around pick No. 20. I believe Howard is going inside the top 10 and it is foolish to hedge bets at this point because of the theory “the NFL doesn’t like to take tight ends high up in drafts.” Yeah, that’s what we all said about running backs when Todd Gurley cracked the top 10 and then Ezekiel Elliot t went No. 4 overall last season.

The problem isn’t NFL axioms…the problem has been most of the top tight ends in recent draft classes have been awful. O.J. Howard is the most universally accepted tight end prospect I may have ever seen. He went to the right school. He has the right measurables from the Senior Bowl, and he shined at said Senior Bowl. Howard may be the most universally accepted tight end prospect since Kellen Winslow Jr. went No. 6 overall in 2004. Only, Howard is not racked with questionable decision making off the field nor does he make erratic statements to the media as did Winslow, and Winslow still went No. 6 overall despite the red flags.

I believe Howard will go (barring a team trading up) either No. 5 to Jacksonville, No. 6 to the Jets and no further back than No. 12 to Cleveland. He won’t make it to No. 12…some team would trade up after him (like Miami or Green Bay…maybe even New England).

Howard is going to be taken by a team with absolute confidence and with an assumed immediate starting role (except in New England). So, for fantasy purposes Howard should give instant impact if he falls in with a quality offense/QB.

I’m excited by Howard, like everyone, but I won’t know how excited to get until we see those athleticism measurables from the NFL Combine.

Look for more of my team’s NFL Draft scouting reports, measurables, mock drafts, and dynasty rookie rankings before and after the NFL Draft, right up to the beginning of the new NFL season at CollegeFootballMetrics.com. See our NFL/fantasy analysis all year round at FantasyFootballMetrics.com.

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