In case you missed it, the first article in this series went up yesterday, talking about my own rankings versus ECR (Expert Consensus Rankings). In this series, we take a look at players that I have ranked much higher or lower than the consensus, and try to give you reasoning as to why they are there.
There are players all over the board this early in the off-season, but potentially none more than those at the running back position. There are some big name free agents still available, while the 2017 draft class is littered with talent. There are going to be some rookies making significant impacts in fantasy football right away, while destroying the value of others. Without wasting any more time, let’s talk about those I’m higher/lower on than the consensus.
Running Backs Lower Than They Should Be
Carlos Hyde, SF (My ranking: 6, ECR: 12)
This one has me puzzled, as there are players such as DeMarco Murray, Todd Gurley, and Lamar Miller ranked in front of Hyde. Is it possible that most people didn’t get to see Hyde play last year on what was the second-worst team in the NFL? Despite the unattractive situation, Hyde managed to finish as the No. 9 running back points per game in standard formats and No. 11 in PPR, despite not being labeled as a “pass-catching” back. He was able to break the 10th most tackles while carrying the ball in 2016, and that was despite missing three full games. The arrival of new head coach Kyle Shanahan should only improve his outlook, as we all witnessed him coordinate a Falcons offense that produced over 1,700 rushing yards, 900 receiving yards, and 25 total touchdowns out of their running backs. Hyde is one of the few stud running backs that has zero competition at the moment.
Ty Montgomery, GB (My ranking: 21, ECR: 31)
The Packers have had over two months of off-season to debate whether or not they wanted to use Montgomery as their starting running back and as of right now, he’s the guy. Watching plenty of big names leave the free agent market, the Packers’ name hasn’t been attached to any of them. No visits, no rumors, nothing. Instead, they re-signed Christine Michael. Montgomery was one of the most elusive running backs in the league last year, breaking a tackle once every 4.4 touches, which ranked third among players with at least 100 touches. He needed to be considering the Packers offensive line produced just 1.0 yards before contact for their running backs, the worst in the NFL. After hearing that, it should come as no surprise that Montgomery’s 5.1 yards after contact led all running backs (minimum 20 carries). Unless they add a big name in the first couple rounds, Montgomery should be considered the starter. In the games Montgomery received at least 10 touches, he averaged 16.9 PPR points per game, which would’ve ranked eighth among running backs in 2016.
Running Backs Higher Than They Should Be
DeMarco Murray, TEN (My ranking: 13, ECR: 9)
As you can see, I’m not completely down on Murray, but I’m also not considering him an RB1 this season. We’ve seen plenty of aging running backs hit the open market, only to sign a one-year deal, or for some, not sign at all. The NFL’s window for a running back is shrinking by the day, and Murray just turned 29 years old. While his age is a serious concern, it’s more so when you consider he’s racked up over 1,300 touches over the last four years. While most just have to worry about age catching up, he happens to have a stud running back (Derrick Henry) waiting in the wings to steal his job, and we saw shades of that in the second half of 2016. I’d rather be a year too early getting off the Murray train than a year too late. He’s already given us tell-tale signs that a decline is imminent.
| Car/gm | RuYds/gm | YPC | TD/gm | RecYds/gm | STD PPG | PPR PPG | |
| Weeks 1-10 | 19.1 | 93.0 | 4.87 | 1.00 | 25.9 | 18.1 | 21.8 |
| Weeks 11-17 | 17.0 | 59.5 | 3.50 | 0.33 | 19.7 | 9.9 | 12.6 |
Latavius Murray, MIN (My ranking: 25, ECR: 20)
When going through my rankings, I thought having Murray at No. 25 was being generous given his move to Minnesota. Not only is he leaving what was arguably the best offensive line in football, but he’s going to a team with arguably the worst offensive line in football. Granted, they are trying to make some moves to improve that, but news just broke that Murray needed surgery on his ankle to remove some bone spurs. He averaged just 4.04 yards per carry while playing behind the Raiders offensive line last year, while Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington combined to average 5.64 yards per carry. It wasn’t a small sample size, either, as those two combined for just 25 carries less than Murray. He’ll likely start out rotating with Jerick McKinnon, but ultimately, talent should win that competition. The reason Murray is even this high in my rankings is due to the fact that he’ll likely see almost all goal line work, considering it’s not McKinnon’s strongest attribute.
More Under/Overvalued Picks
Quarterbacks
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
