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Fantasy Football TE Rankings: Mike Tagliere vs. ECR

Fantasy Football TE Rankings: Mike Tagliere vs. ECR

Now that we’ve made it through quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers, it’s time to wrap up our short series where we take a look at players that I have ranked much higher or lower than the expert consensus, and try to give you reasoning as to why they are there.

This rookie tight end class is considered to be very deep and one of the best in a long time. That doesn’t change the fact that rookie tight ends very seldom offer fantasy production immediately. So with that being said, the tight end rankings are very unlikely to change unless there is a big wide receiver acquisition that will draw targets to them rather than the tight ends.

TIGHT ENDS LOWER THAN THEY SHOULD BE

Jack Doyle, IND (My ranking: 12, ECR: 19)
This one strikes me as particularly odd, considering the small pool of tight ends. It’s either I’m missing something or the consensus will eventually catch up. Not only did Doyle finish as the No. 13 fantasy tight end last year while competing with Dwayne Allen, but he was just one of three tight ends to finish in the top 18 tight ends with fewer than 80 targets. The others were Hunter Henry and Martellus Bennett, both of whom have a much higher ECR than Doyle (Henry: 10, Bennett: 11). If you somehow missed it, Allen was traded away to the Patriots. Truth be told, Doyle may actually move up from where I have him now, as Andrew Luck targets his tight ends more than your average quarterback. Since coming into the league, Luck has targeted his tight ends an average of 135 times per year. Unless you think Eric Swoope is going to steal 50-plus targets from Doyle, start to consider Doyle as a TE1.

Kyle Rudolph, MIN (My ranking: 9, ECR: 13)
This is disappointing to see, considering Rudolph was my favorite buy-low player a few years ago, but even I had given up on him prior to last season. Of course he’d finally find his groove and finish as the No. 3 fantasy tight end in 2016. I thought that I’d be low on him considering that finish, but I’m apparently much higher than the crowd. The coaching staff is staying in place and Sam Bradford loves him. The guy saw 132 targets last year, which ranked No. 1 among tight ends, and No. 15 among all players period. So considering there wasn’t a coaching change and they didn’t add a big playmaking wide receiver, it’s fair to project Rudolph for a minimum of 100 targets, correct? Here is a list of tight ends over the last five years who’ve seen more than 100 targets and failed to finish as a top-12 tight end: Dennis Pitta (2016: 86/729/2), Brandon Pettigrew (2012: 59/567/3), and Kellen Winslow (2011: 75/763/2). That’s it. The common denominator is that they were older players and that they lacked in the touchdown department. Rudolph is 27 years old and averages 5.8 touchdowns per 16 games over his career.

TIGHT ENDS HIGHER THAN THEY SHOULD BE

Hunter Henry, LAC (My ranking: 13, ECR: 10)
Let me start by saying that I like Henry, and if Antonio Gates had retired, he’d easily be in my top eight tight ends. But the issue is that Gates didn’t retire and Keenan Allen is returning to the starting lineup. Suddenly, the Chargers have an overabundance of pass catchers between Henry, Gates, Allen, Terrell Williams, Travis Benjamin, and Dontrelle Inman. Trying to figure out how they’ll distribute targets will be a task in itself, but Henry is likely one who won’t see an increase. I say that because despite the injuries to Allen, Benjamin, and Gates (missed two games), Henry saw just 53 targets, or just 3.5 per game. Yes, he finished as the No. 11 tight end, but he was only the second player in the last five years to finish in the top 12 without seeing at least 70 targets. The other was Julius Thomas with Peyton Manning in 2014 where he saw 62 targets (caught 12 touchdowns). Again, I like Henry, but the math simply doesn’t add up.

Zach Miller, CHI (My ranking: 19, ECR: 16)
There is a lot changing with the Bears, especially on their offense. Not only did they sign Mike Glennon to a three-year deal, but they also gave free agent contracts to Kendall Wright, Markus Wheaton, and Dion Sims. The signing of Sims somewhat went under the radar, but it’s one that will affect Miller’s playing time. It’s not to say Sims is a better player than Miller, but he was given $10 million in guaranteed money, which isn’t something you’d do for a guy who isn’t going to play. Miller himself is 33 years old and coming off a Lisfranc fracture, which required surgery and a long recovery. The Bears threw the ball 352 times in the 10 games that Miller played in 2016, and due to the injuries to Kevin White, Alshon Jeffery, and Eddie Royal, Miller saw 64 targets for an astonishing 18.1 percent target share. With the return of White and the additions of the other free agents, Miller shouldn’t be considered anything more than a streaming tight end.

More Under/Overvalued Picks
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Quarterbacks


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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.

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