Last season, Adam Duvall and Mike Napoli emerged from fantasy irrelevance to suddenly giving teams a big boost in the HR category. These types of hitters appear out of nowhere every year and whether it was Lucas Duda in 2014, Chris Davis in 2012, Nelson Cruz in 2009 or Ryan Ludwick in 2008, fantasy owners who took a chance on them in the late rounds of their draft had a huge advantage over the rest of the league. As always, there are a handful of players who fit the bill and have the ability to leap from 15 homers to 35. Let’s take a look a the five who you could grab late in drafts.
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Greg Bird (1B – NYY)
The Yankees’ first basemen missed the 2016 season with a torn labrum, which is typically a rough injury to bounce back from. With that being said, he is still just 24 years old and since he is a lefty at the plate, his injured should is the lead arm, which should fend off any kind of power drop. At 6’4″, 220, Bird has always been a masher, but when he advanced to the Major Leagues, he was a perfect fit for the ballpark and had a brief breakout. He knocked 11 homers in just 157 at-bats, which equals 39 homers if spread out over a full season. In fact, he finished 5th among all major leaguers in average exit velocity as a rookie. It shouldn’t be expected that Bird swats near 40 bombs this season, but the potential for the season or the next is present without question.
Jorge Soler (OF – KCR)
What we have seen in the Big Leagues from the Royals’ shiny new toy hasn’t been all that impressive, with just 27 homers in 682 at-bats, but there should be plenty more on the horizon. In the two and half seasons Soler was with the Cubs, he was battling through injuries and playing on sparingly behind a loaded outfield. He finally started to come into his potential in the second half last season when he hit 7 homers in his final 97 at-bats with an .864 OPS. Even that is a disappointment from a former top-five prospect who batted .340/.432/.700 during a minor league season and earned the nickname “Soler Power”. Now that Soler is playing full time, the question becomes whether or not he can stay healthy enough to knock 30+ bombs.
Domingo Santana (OF – MIL)
There are few players in baseball who hit the ball harder than the Brewers’ mammoth 24-year-old outfielder. Sure, last season he disappointed eager fantasy owners with a .256 batting average and just 11 homers in an injury-riddled season, but all of his underlying statistics scream positive regression. His average exit velocity of 93.8 MPH last season was higher than Miguel Sano, Joc Pederson, Josh Donaldson, Khris Davis and a number of other elite sluggers who have a reputation for crushing balls all over the yard. It is only a matter of time before he is commonly mentioned in the same breath as those players, and seeing that he batted .333 in his final minor league season, he might just help with more than power stats.
Mike Zunino (C -SEA)
Here is another former top prospect who just hasn’t put it all together. Seattle’s ballpark has killed its fair share of young hitter’s careers from Dustin Ackley to Jesus Montero and Justin Smoak. Zunino’s career isn’t quite over yet, but this may Zunino’s last chance after starting his career with a .195 batting average over 350 games. If last season is any indication, there is plenty of reason to believe he will stick around this time. After batting .286/.376/.521 with 17 homers in half of a Triple-A season, he was called up to the Majors and pounded 9 homers in his first 75 at-bats. Zunino once batted .336 with a .614 slugging percentage in the minors so the raw ability is there, he just has to cut down on his strikeouts enough to stick in the lineup.
A.J. Reed (1B – HOU)
There was once a rookie who batted .220 with a ton of strikeouts and surprisingly low power numbers in his 40 game Major League debut. His club sent the player back down to the minors then he proceeded to place top two in the MVP voting five consecutive seasons. No, Reed isn’t Mike Trout, but the point is, you shouldn’t count a guy out because of a terrible two months as a rookie. For what it’s worth, A.J. Reed‘s .979 OPS in 273 minor league games trumps Mike Trout‘s .941 OPS in 286 minor league games. This is an elite hitter in the making and we can expect .290 with 30+ homers for years to come, perhaps even as early as 2017 if he can find his way onto the field.
Deeper HR Sleepers to keep an eye on
Joey Gallo (3B/OF – TEX)
Peter O’Brien (OF/1B – KCR)
Steven Moya (OF – DET)
Hunter Renfroe (OF – SDP)
Cody Bellinger (1B – LAD
Sleepers for AVG/OBP
Sleepers for Runs
Sleeper for RBIs
Sleepers for Stolen Bases
