5 Players To Buy Low In Dynasty (Fantasy Football)
When it comes to purchasing shares of a player at a discounted rate in fantasy football, it is imperative to consider their pedigree and market value. Tools such as ADP can identify individuals that can be acquired at a cheaper price than anticipated, and help discover buy low candidates in the process. Below, I have made a case to invest in multiple fantasy contributors for 2017 that are currently undervalued in the dynasty landscape due to durability or production concerns.
Based on his lucrative cost in dynasty startup drafts, it may come as a surprise to find Watkins featured in this article. At the same time, it is fair to argue that the wide receiver has yet to reach his statistical ceiling in the NFL. As a result, those that believe in Watkins’ skill set should consider trading for him before he ultimately enters elite territory at the wide receiver position.
Albeit a limited sample size, Watkins has proven to be a difference maker in fantasy when active. The issue is, durability woes have forced him to miss 11 regular season contests over the past two seasons combined. Watkins flashed his elite upside as a rookie by collecting 65 receptions for 982 yards and six touchdowns across an entire 16-game slate. He then proceeded to post 1,047 yards receiving as a sophomore in 2015 before suffering a Jones’ fracture, which limited his availability to eight games last season. His foot injury has since required two surgeries, but Watkins remains on schedule for training camp. Those that are risk averse will find it difficult to trust Watkins, but the 23-year-old remains a sound long-term investment in dynasty circles based on his untapped potential. He also figures to become the centerpiece of Buffalo’s aerial attack in 2017, as Robert Woods and his corresponding 76 targets from last season need to be redistributed.
Due to the added presence of Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith via free agency this offseason, it appears on paper that Jordan Matthews is destined to receive a decrease in fantasy value or target share in 2017. Although the latter could be true, a return to slot duties in Philadelphia is promising for the 24-year-old wide receiver.
In each of his first three NFL seasons, Matthews has accrued a minimum of 67 receptions for 800 yards receiving. The root of his struggles in 2016 can be attributed to a lack of touchdown output, as he only found the end zone three times. As a rookie and sophomore, Matthews posted consecutive campaigns with eight receiving touchdowns. Based on his success prior to last season, it is fair to wonder if 2016 represents an outlier in terms of his expected production. To date, Matthews has eclipsed 100 targets in all three seasons as a pro. As long as his target share continues on that trend, he will offer considerable value as an overlooked weapon in Philadelphia’s aerial attack. With an ADP in the late fourth-round of startup drafts, Matthews is a recommend buy low target in dynasty due to his pedigree and age.
As the NFL Draft approaches, Ty Montgomery’s workload in Green Bay’s offense is rather uncertain. The Stanford product emerged in 2016 by registering 457 rushing yards for three touchdowns in addition to compiling 44 receptions for 348 yards receiving. Montgomery filled a hybrid role on offense as a running back and wide receiver during his second NFL season, but has officially transitioned to the tailback position for 2017.
Due to the departure of Eddie Lacy to Seattle, Montgomery is currently penciled in as Green Bay’s starting running back for the imminent future. The only formidable threat to his job is Christine Michael, who was recently re-signed to a one-year contract. Fortunately for Montgomery owners, Michael figures to serve a complementary role at best based on his usage rate in 2016. The more prominent issue surrounding Montgomery’s dynasty value is the threat of added competition via the NFL Draft. Given that concern, the 24-year-old stands as an appealing buy low target in the event that Green Bay values him as a lead back. Invest in Montgomery as an RB2 in PPR formats, but realize that an increased role on offense could lead to a boost in value. After all, he managed to compile 805 all-purpose yards on merely 121 offensive touches last season.
Despite age concerns, Demaryius Thomas has proven to be a reliable asset in dynasty for virtually his entire career to this point. The 29-year-old wide receiver has managed to record at least 90 receptions for 1,000 yards receiving and five touchdowns over his past five campaigns. Remarkably, across that time frame Thomas has finished no worse than the WR16 in full-point PPR formats.
With legitimate quarterback issues in Denver, Thomas continues to witness his ADP fall. Leading up to the NFL Draft, the Georgia Tech product is often available in the third-round of startup drafts in dynasty. Sure, Thomas is no longer an elite asset. However, he is an extremely reliable and durable WR2. Consider that since 2012, Thomas has never missed a regular season contest. Even more, he has only failed to reach double-digit points in PPR formats on five occasions over the past two years. While others are prepared to write off Thomas, be sure to capitalize and invest in him at a discounted rate while the opportunity presents itself.
After an impressive rookie campaign in which he rushed for 382 yards and two touchdowns on a meager 88 attempts, Kenneth Dixon remains a strong hold in dynasty formats. Keep in mind, he also recorded 30 receptions for 162 yards receiving and a score while serving a complementary role for most of 2016. Of course, it is essential to note that Dixon received a four-game suspension this offseason for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy. This hinders his short-term outlook, but presents a window to invest in Dixon at a reduced rate.
From a dynasty perspective, Danny Woodhead’s newfound presence in Baltimore clouds Dixon’s aspirations to become a featured back as a sophomore. However, Terrance West stands as Dixon’s lone obstacle to earning regular early-down snaps in 2017. Unless Baltimore allocates an early pick to the running back position in the NFL Draft, Dixon figures to remain an integral component of the team’s offensive plans moving forward.