Welcome back! This Monday offers aces priced from $12,400 (Sale) to $9,300 (DeGrom) as well as a game in Colorado. If you want to get at least one of the top four arms in, or perhaps some Coors Field bats, you’ll need a little value to open up some salary. There are a lot of different slates today on DraftKings, a little something for everybody as baseball is on all day long. Let’s look at some value plays that may allow us to enjoy it even more.
***The weather looks to be dicey in the midwest with a chance at delays and possibly a postponed game in Chicago or Detroit. Be sure to check the weather leading up to Monday and adjust your lineups accordingly if necessary.***
For reference throughout the season, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Also, check out our GPP and Cash Games Primers to learn more about different daily fantasy game types specific to MLB.
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Pitcher
James Paxton (SEA): $8,400 vs HOU
Paxton, a (-130) favorite, has seen a sharp price increase from $6,900 just last week. Normally, I don’t like to play anyone getting a 10% or higher salary bump. That being said, Paxton gets a familiar foe with the Astros in a rematch of last week’s outing. He looked solid, only allowing three base runners, ultimately working six innings, not factoring into the decision. This week, he gets Houston in SafeCo, the more pitcher-friendlier park of the two. It should be noted that Paxton typically gives up about a half run less at home over his career.
Brandon Finnegan (CIN): $7,300 @ PIT
Finnegan, a (-127) road dog, dazzled in last week’s outing in which he allowed just two base runners prior to sitting down 19 consecutive Phillies. Another case of a much higher salary than last week, Finnegan has been steadily improving since the second half of last season and gets arguably the best pitching environment out there at PNC Park. Don’t expect the Pirates lineup to lay down, but also don’t expect them to get much hard contact either. Finnegan control will be key as he’ll be able to get you 3x value on his price if he can limit his walks.
Other Notables:
Tanner Roark (WAS): $8,200 vs STL
Tyler Glasnow (PIT): $7,500 vs CIN
Catcher
Stephen Vogt (OAK): $3,100 @ KC
The All-Star owns a career .326 wOBA & 109 wRC+ versus righties and has been hitting fifth this season. He’s in an excellent spot against Ian Kennedy, who has historically given up a ton of medium-hard contact and a career .320 wOBA versus opposing lefties. Kennedy’s increasing BB% and decreasing K% against left-hand bats the last two-plus years are also good reasons to play the LH bats against him. Lastly, the A’s and Royals will have a really stiff wind blowing out to right-center today as well so this game could get fun in a hurry.
Other Notables:
James McCann (DET): $2,900 vs. BOS
First Base
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI): $4,200 @ SF
A bit of a stretch, but is it? Goldy offers a lot of value at this price, especially against a lefty in Matt Moore. He feasted on this matchup at Chase Field last week and gets Moore again this week. He mashes lefties with a career .261 ISO/.433 wOBA/172 wRC+. Factor in that he’s actually a threat on the base paths as well as one of the smartest base runners in the game (two SB already this season) and a legit threat for a “jack and a bag”. His upside and consistent production is by definition, a value.
Other Notables:
Greg Bird (NYY): $3,400 vs TB
Second Base
Logan Forsythe (LAD): $3,500 @ CHC
Forsthye owns a career .326 wOBA & 127 wRC+ versus lefties. While he’s had a slow start to the season, look for him to get back on track against Jon Lester and his documented woes with opposing base runners. If he’s slotted to hit lead off once again, Forsythe could get on base at least once against Lester…and you never know what can happen from there.
Other Notables:
Neil Walker (NYM): $3,600 @ PHI
Third Base
Mike Moustakas (KC): $3,100 vs OAK
Moustakas draws a matchup versus righty Jharel Cotton who did not look very good in his season debut. So far in the young season, Moustakas has been hitting right-handers well although he still needs to cut down on the whiffs. I like the chances of him getting the best of the young pitcher today who allowed 10 base runners in just 4.1 innings last week.
Other Notables:
Pablo Sandoval (BOS): $3,500 @ DET
Shortstop
Freddy Galvis (PHI): $3,200 vs NYM
The switch-hitter has started off this season on fire. While the match up with DeGrom is simply enough to turn most people off, he’s been mashing righties in 2017 to the tune of a .500 ISO/.492 wOBA/.204 wRC+ in his 16 plate appearances thus far. I know it’s a small sample size, but if you believe in hot streaks and the fact that a decent wind will be blowing out…that could assist some lefty bats today in Philly.
Other Notables:
Jordy Mercer (PIT): $3,000 vs CIN
Outfield
Yasmany Tomas (ARI): $3,300 @ SF
Tomas rakes against lefties, not to the absurd extent that his teammate listed above does, but he is pretty close. He owns a career .264 ISO/.404 wOBA/151 wRC+ versus lefties and gets another one today. Even though this is a pitchers park in SanFran, there appears to be some heavy wind blowing out, which is limited by the design of the park itself, but still offers an added bonus to roster DBacks today.
A.J. Pollock (ARI): $4,000 @ SF
The trend continues, this should make it pretty easy to tell who I’m stacking up today. Pollock has a career .216 ISO/.366 wOBA/128 wRC+ against lefties and he’ll likely bat leadoff against Matt Moore again today. He makes a great roster fill in as well, even if you’re not stacking Arizona. Pollock has been somewhat forgotten after a lost 2016, but he’s still a guy that also get you stolen base upside as well.
Matt Joyce (OAK) (OAK): @2,400 @ KC
I mentioned Ian Kennedy‘s struggles verses lefty bats above. Add those to the super cheap price tag for Joyce and the fact that he’s most likely batting second for Oakland…that’s nearing a must-play status for Joyce. He makes a great play in cash games to get you to those high-altitude bats and reliable pitching options. And remember again, it’s the right kind of windy for this game today.
Other Notables:
Corey Dickerson (TB) $3,600 @ NYY
Steven Souza (TB) $3,800 @ NYY
Brandon Drury/Chris Owings (ARI) $3,000 each @ SF
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J.C. Dalley is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from J.C., follow him @JoshDalley72.