Welcome back to this edition of MLB value plays for your DraftKings pleasure. It’s officially Summer Time and this Monday offers eight games in total with a couple late-afternoon matchups and finishing off with another half dozen throughout the evening. There is a surprising amount of awesome pitching given the short slate and with the like of Chris Sale and Zack Greinke, priced just shy of $13,000. You’ll need to grab value where you can because it’s in your best interest to roster one of those studs, both heavily favored. As always, keep an eye on the weather and late line movement.
Check out today’s MLB Moonshot contest at DraftKings
Pitcher
Jeff Samardzija (SFG) : $8,400 vs. COL
Both arms from the same game are in play tonight with the Rockies at Giants. With both teams implied to score four runs or less, The Shark is (-127) favored here, and I believe that to be a result of the impressive peripheral stats he’s put together. Your casual DFS players will likely fade him due to the poor W-L record, making him a great play with Sale or Greinke in cash games and GPPs. The fact is, outside of Coors field, he’s been magnificent, and his low ownership is also tempering his price tag. The Giants offense doesn’t give him run support either but the K upside is there.
German Marquez (COL) : $7,500 @ SF
Again, very low team totals here. If Samardzija wasn’t pitching so well, the Rockies would likely be favored. Regardless, the Giants rank anywhere from 23rd-last in all standard and advance batting stats. The sad thing is, they’re not getting unlucky either, they’re just bad. With how little SanFran has been walking lately, it’s tough to not play Marquez who’s been surprisingly solid this season. The Giants shelled him last year and that has to be on his mind for a little revenge. However, the Frisco bats are all so cheap, they make it hard to not sprinkle in as one-off plays here and there.
Other notables
Rich Hill (LAD): $8,600 vs. LAA
Brandon Finnegan (CIN): $5,800 @ STL (GPP Special)
Catcher
Willson Contreras (CHC) : $3,600 @ WAS
With the expensive pitching tonight, punting is always in play at catcher since they don’t produce much and bat low in the order. Contreras however, could very likely be hitting out of the three spot on the road, making him a decent option for those who refuse to roster a punt backstop. He owns a career .354 wOBA versus lefties since entering the league last year and the 119 wRC+ is good for a catcher with both improved K% and BB% this year.
Other notables
Yadier Molina (STL): $3,900 vs. CIN
First Base
Mitch Moreland (BOS): $3,400 vs. MIN
Moreland was swinging a hot stick going into last week. After cooling down a bit, he rebounded nicely with homers both Saturday and Sunday at home against the Angles. Moreland has always been considered a good hitter against RHP and his numbers so far suggest he’s on track for another good year. This year with a .220 ISO and ten dingers versus righties and carrying a .351 wOBA and 114 wRC+ provides some excellent upside from the cleanup spot. There are more than a few cheap 1B eligible bats tonight, but Moreland is my favorite.
Other notables
Brandon Belt (SF): $3,600 vs. COL (OF eligible)
Second Base
Starlin Castro (NYY): $3,800 @ CWS
This is a tough call as both Castro and Utley have strikingly similar numbers versus in their respective platoon advantages this season. Both of their teams are projected to score 5.5 runs against terrible pitchers. With all this, I give the nod to Castro on a team with a slightly higher total and against a pitcher in Brett Holmberg, who has never shown signs of being any good. Ricky Nolasco was at least good at one point in his career…back in the day.
Other notables
Chase Utley (LAD): $3,300 vs. LAA (1B eligible)
Third Base
Miguel Sano (MIN): $3,800 @ BOS
Recommending a hitter against Chris Sale doesn’t feel right, but after digging a little deeper, Sano has smashed Sale in a small, 6-12 sample with a HR. Ans as you may expect Sale BvP numbers to look, five Ks in those six hitless appearances. We know Brian Dozier and Sano are a powerful combo versus southpaws, and that’s not a bad contrarian move tonight as almost nobody will consider playing them. Sano could whiff three times and you wouldn’t be surprised given the opponent. If he runs into one (or two) at 1% ownership, that’s not surprising either…at least it shouldn’t be, considering his ridiculous, elite-level numbers vs LHP. He’s surpassed Nolan Arenado as THE premier power-hitter at the hot corner.
Other notables
Ryder Jones (SF): $2,000 vs. COL (min. salary punt)
Shortstop
Tim Anderson (CWS) : $3,000 vs. NYY
The price tag is so low on Anderson that it’s hard not to look his way given his platoon splits in order to fit in a high-priced ace to anchor your lineup at SP1. Don’t expect a long ball from him, but more so being part of heavy base traffic against lefty Jordan Montgomery. The WhiteSox are the best team as far as production versus lefties this season, and I double-checked because they’re a last-place squad. However, as they’ve most recently obliterated the likes of Nik Turley, look for him to be a part of the scoring by getting on base and scoring as that’s been a trend when he leads off.
Other notables
Brandon Crawford (SF): $3,000 vs. COL
Outfield
Albert Almora (CHC): $3,000 @ WAS
Almora has been slowly getting bumped up the Cubs order and should hit sixth or seventh versus a lefty which favors him greatly. Since coming into the big leagues last year, he’s been hitting LHP better than his teammate Contreras, mentioned above. Even though his ISO is much lower than last season, he has the same amount of HRs while sporting a healthy .430 wOBA and 167 wRC+ in 58 plate appearances. He’s earned the trust of Joe Maddon and therefore, you can trust him in your lineups against lefties as well.
Melky Cabrera (ARI): $3,300 vs. NYY
I already mentioned the White Sox proficient ways versus lefties, but the main reason I like Anderson is that of Melky hitting behind him. The Melk Man has scorched southpaws this seasons to the tune of a .244 ISO, .368 wOBA and 130 wRC+ and a matchup with a rookie LHP is very tasty. Playing Anderson and Cabrera in a mini-stack, or with Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia and your choice of Matt Davidson or Todd Frazier is likely to be a sneaky contrarian stack and likely to win somebody a tournament.
Randal Grichuk (STL): $3,700 vs. CIN
Grichuk struggled mightily after Opening Day this year. He was demoted all the way down to Single-A ball but worked his tail off to get back to the big leagues in expedited fashion. After earning several promotions, Grichuk pounded Triple-A pitching and carried over his refreshed mental approach and fluid swing into last night’s tilt with the Pirates, going deep in his first AB back. In his last 11 games with both clubs, he has 7 HRs and appears to be back to the same level that produced a .252 ISO, .346 wOBA and 118 wRC+ across 2015 annd 2016. His bat is back so don’t hesitate to plug him in.
Other notables
Cam Perkins (PHI): $2,900 @ ARI
Shin-Soo Choo (TEX): $3,600 @ CLE
Brian Goodwin (WAS): $3,800 vs. CHC
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Josh Dalley is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, follow him @JoshDalley72