Pierre Garçon Poised to Deliver Value

by Luc Veris
Jun 14, 2017

Pierre Garcon should thrive in a familiar system

Pierre Garcon is coming off a quietly productive 2016 season. – 1,041-yards on 79 receptions, but only three TDs – a WR32 finish. Yet despite a massive upgrade to his situation, his 2017 ADP is WR38, 94th overall, late eighth round. Shoe-in for the X-receiver role in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, Garçon’s production should only increase. He is a virtual lock for 1,000 yards, with upside for much more. From the eighth round on he presents a tremendous value proposition.

Complete a mock draft in minutes with our free Draft Simulator >>

Team Situation

Shanahan and QB Brian Hoyer finished 7-9 together in Cleveland Josh Gordon’s breakout year. They are back together in San Francisco, and Garçon will have Gordon’s role as the X-receiver. But not only is the starting QB familiar with Shanahan’s system, so is Garçon. Say what you want about GM John Lynch’s decision to hand out such a big contract ($9.5MM makes him the 16th highest paid WR in the NFL right now) – they plan to use Garçon and that much is clear.

Garçon’s Role

Shanahan’s playbook is not too complicated: feed the X-receiver early and often:
la
Santana Moss (McNabb) 2010: 93 receptions on 146 targets for 1,115 yards, six TDs. This is a decent year from an average WR and a good QB – very comparable to Jarvis Landry’s statistics (more on that later).

Jabar Gaffney (Grossman) 2011: 68 receptions on 115 targets for 947 yards, five TDs. Considering neither player is very good, 950/5 is not awful.

– Garçon (RGIII/Cousins) 2013: 113 rec(!) on 183 targets(!) for 1,346 yards(!) and five TDs. Cousins is certainly a step up from Hoyer, but Hoyer, for all of his faults (turnovers, especially under pressure), has never had difficulties feeding his WR1 (Recall that DeAndre Hopkins breakout season was thanks in large part to inordinate volume from Hoyer).

– In 2014, Shanahan dealt with the Josh Gordon / Johnny Manziel circus.

Julio Jones (Ryan) 2015-16: 219 receptions on 333 targets for 3,280 yards and 14 TDs (30 games played)

Garçon was targeted specifically by Lynch and Shanahan because he knows Shanahan’s system, is a reliable veteran, and the staff is comfortable with him as the leader until they can rebuild WR through the draft. He will provide safe, reliable volume, and a high floor – albeit with limited touchdown upside.

Projections

Garçon hauled in 79 receptions on 114 targets in the Redskins offense last year. We can safely project a bump in targets to at least 140, which would put Garçon in the 90/1,100/4 range. 180 targets (which Garçon achieved with Kyle Shanahan in 2013) would put him in the 100/1,300/6 range.

Compare his production to Jarvis Landry – 94 receptions on 131 targets for 1,138 yards and four TDs in 2016 – who is being drafted in the fourth round as WR18.

As it stands now, Garçon is a steal at his current ADP. He is a safe, consistent floor WR2-3 who is being drafted as a WR4. He presents mid-range WR2 upside from the back half of your draft. Keep him on your radar and be ready to pull the trigger a round earlier than your draft client has him ranked. You don’t want to miss this value.


Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS

Lucius Veris is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Lucius, check out his archive and follow him @LucVarys.

What's your take? Leave a comment

Fantasy Games
DRAFT photo
Get a FREE FantasyPros upgrade with first deposit
FanDuel photo
Play for your share of $1m+
for FREE with first deposit
CBS Sports photo
Serious Fantasy Football
Get our Mobile App!

Enter your phone number below, and we'll text you a link to download the app.

1Todd Gurley (LAR)RB
2Le'Veon Bell (PIT)RB
3Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)RB
4Antonio Brown (PIT)WR
5David Johnson (ARI)RB
6DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)WR
7Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG)WR
8Alvin Kamara (NO)RB
9Kareem Hunt (KC)RB
10Julio Jones (ATL)WR
 View All Rankings 
11Leonard Fournette (JAC)RB
12Michael Thomas (NO)WR
13Saquon Barkley (NYG)RB
14Melvin Gordon (LAC)RB
15A.J. Green (CIN)WR
16Dalvin Cook (MIN)RB
17Keenan Allen (LAC)WR
18Davante Adams (GB)WR
19Mike Evans (TB)WR
20LeSean McCoy (BUF)RB
21Devonta Freeman (ATL)RB
22Jordan Howard (CHI)RB
23Rob Gronkowski (NE)TE
24Doug Baldwin (SEA)WR
25Tyreek Hill (KC)WR
26Christian McCaffrey (CAR)RB
27Adam Thielen (MIN)WR
28Jerick McKinnon (SF)RB
29Joe Mixon (CIN)RB
30T.Y. Hilton (IND)WR
1Mike Trout (LAA)CF
2Jose Altuve (HOU)2B
3Nolan Arenado (COL)3B
4Trea Turner (WSH)SS
5Mookie Betts (BOS)RF
6Charlie Blackmon (COL)CF
7Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)1B
8Bryce Harper (WSH)RF
9Giancarlo Stanton (NYY)RF
10Clayton Kershaw (LAD)SP
 View All Rankings 
11Max Scherzer (WSH)SP
12Kris Bryant (CHC)3B,RF
13Carlos Correa (HOU)SS
14Corey Kluber (CLE)SP
15Chris Sale (BOS)SP
16Joey Votto (CIN)1B
17Manny Machado (BAL)3B
18Freddie Freeman (ATL)1B,3B
19Anthony Rizzo (CHC)1B,2B
20J.D. Martinez (BOS)RF
21Aaron Judge (NYY)RF
22Francisco Lindor (CLE)SS
23George Springer (HOU)CF,RF
24Josh Donaldson (TOR)3B
25Cody Bellinger (LAD)1B,LF
26Stephen Strasburg (WSH)SP
27Noah Syndergaard (NYM)SP
28Gary Sanchez (NYY)C
29Jose Ramirez (CLE)2B,3B
30Brian Dozier (MIN)2B
1Kevin Durant (GSW)SF,PF
2Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)SF,PF
3James Harden (HOU)PG,SG
4Stephen Curry (GSW)PG,SG
5Russell Westbrook (OKC)PG
6Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)C
7Anthony Davis (NOR)PF,C
8Kawhi Leonard (SAS)SG,SF
9LeBron James (CLE)SF,PF
10Nikola Jokic (DEN)PF,C
 View All Rankings 
11John Wall (WAS)PG
12DeMarcus Cousins (NOR)PF,C
13Chris Paul (HOU)PG
14Damian Lillard (POR)PG
15Jimmy Butler (MIN)SG,SF
16Rudy Gobert (UTH)C
17Kyrie Irving (BOS)PG,SG
18Hassan Whiteside (MIA)C,PF
19Myles Turner (IND)PF,C
20Paul George (OKC)SG,SF
21Kyle Lowry (TOR)PG
22Draymond Green (GSW)SF,PF
23Kristaps Porzingis (NYK)PF,C
24Kemba Walker (CHA)PG
25CJ McCollum (POR)PG,SG
26Mike Conley (MEM)PG
27Bradley Beal (WAS)SG
28Klay Thompson (GSW)SG,SF
29Marc Gasol (MEM)C
30Gordon Hayward (BOS)SG,SF