I’m all over the top arm on this slate. Corey Kluber‘s $14,000 salary is eye-popping, but he’s worth it. The presence of a high-powered yet cheap stack opens the door to rostering another high-ceiling arm who’s not in the bargain bin. Only one hitter on the lineup below is priced above $4,000, but don’t confuse a lack of spending for a lack of upside. A lower-ceiling SP2 with a favorable matchup is the only honorable mention I’ll be including.
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Pitcher
Corey Kluber (CLE): $14,000 @ White Sox
Getting past the salary, Kluber’s an easy sell. Among qualified pitchers this season, he ranks third in strikeout rate (35.5%) and K-BB% (29.3%), fourth in WHIP (0.96) and ERA (2.74), second in FIP (2.47) and SIERA (2.69), first in xFIP (2.47), and second in SwStr% (16.0%), according to FanGraphs. He also ranks third in DRA (2.25) among pitchers who’ve pitched at least 90 innings this year, per Baseball Prospectus. Incredibly, he’s been in even better form of late with a 1.75 ERA, 2.07 FIP, 1.77 xFIP, 2.05 SIERA, 0.78 WHIP, 5.3% BB%, 42.1% K%, and 18.7% SwStr% in five starts spanning 36.0 innings over the last 30 days. The White Sox are unlikely to slow his roll since they rank tied for 25th in wRC+ (87) and 28th in wOBA (.304) against right-handed pitchers this year. They’ve also struck out in 22.3% of their plate appearances against righties this year. Kluber and the Indians are far and away the biggest betting favorites on the main slate at -265, and the game’s over/under total of eight runs, according to Pinnacle, is also inviting. Kluber bested 40 fantasy points in his last start and has done so in three of his last 10 games. He’s gone over 30 points in four more of his last 10 points, and he’s a strong bet to exceed 30 points tonight with the upside to go over 40 once again.
Dinelson Lamet (SDP): $7,900 vs. Pirates
Lamet has a massive platoon split surrendering a .372 OBP, .651 SLG, and .414 wOBA to lefties. However, he’s death on righties tying them up to the tune of a .234 OBP, .320 SLG, and .241 wOBA. A matchup with the visiting Pirates is perfect for his splits, as Pittsburgh’s best hitters are right-handed, and the lineups likely only going to feature three lefties with Josh Bell representing the most daunting challenge for Lamet. The rookie righty has huge strikeout upside with a 29.8% K% and 13.8% SwStr% this season. The combination of a righty-heavy matchup with his strikeout skills creates a huge ceiling for Lamet.
Honorable Mention
- Adalberto Mejia (MIN): $6,400 @ Athletics
Catcher
Jonathan Lucroy (TEX): $3,000 vs. Orioles
Lucroy received the night off yesterday, so I’m not concerned he’ll sit tonight, thus, a lack of honorable mentions. The backstop’s the first part of a 5-man Rangers stack. Texas is a dog with the visiting Orioles serving as -124 favorites, but the game’s over/under total of 11.5 runs leaves plenty of scoring projection for the host Rangers. Also applying to all of the Rangers hitters is Kevin Gausman‘s road struggles. In 44.1 innings on the road this season, Gausman has a 6.90 ERA (5.39 FIP and 5.51 xFIP) while allowing a .411 OBP, .529 SLG, and .401 wOBA with only a 15.0% K%. Road struggles are nothing new for Gausman as he’s recorded an ERA north of six in three of five years in the Majors, and his career mark is 5.14. Lucroy’s numbers aren’t inspiring, but cheap exposure to the other factors looks good behind the dish. Furthermore, Gausman’s allowed a .367 OBP, .495 SLG, and .367 wOBA to righties this year.
First Base
Tommy Joseph (PHI) : $3,700 vs. Braves
Joseph’s your throwback, right-handed slugging first baseman who’s better against lefties. In his career, the sophomore slugger has a .328 OBP, .286 ISO, and 124 wRC+ against lefties. He’s been much better against lefties at home, though, with a .404 OBP, .291 ISO, and 160 wRC+.
Honorable Mentions
- Freddie Freeman (ATL): $4,600 @ Phillies
- Matt Adams (ATL): $3,700 @ Phillies
Second Base
Rougned Odor (TEX) : $3,800 vs. Orioles
Gausman doesn’t just struggle with righties. Left-handed batters have knocked him around for a .400 OBP, .505 SLG, and .388 wOBA this season. Odor’s a free-swinger with plenty of faults, but power isn’t one of them with a .281 ISO against righties in Texas this season. Since last year, Odor has a .277 ISO and 111 wRC+ against righties in Texas.
Third Base
Joey Gallo (TEX) : $3,700 vs. Orioles
Gallo’s all-or-nothing approach plays well again tonight against Gausman. The O’s righty can miss bats, but he’s only totaled a 17.2% K% against lefties this year, and that dips to a 13.1% K% against lefties on the road this year. As I’ve repeatedly pointed out when touting Gallo this year, when he makes contact, he does damage. The slugger has a .339 ISO against right-handed pitchers this year.
Honorable Mentions
- Adrian Beltre (TEX): $4,700 vs. Orioles
- Rafael Devers (BOS): $3,000 vs. Royals
Shortstop
Miguel Rojas (MIA) : $2,500 vs. Reds
Shortstop stinks tonight, and Rojas is simply a punt. Having said that, his .420 OBP and 118 wRC+ against righties this year in an admittedly small sample of 70 plate appearances is pretty nifty. This is the second time in the last three years that Rojas has rattled off a wRC+ above 110 against righties (he managed a 111 wRC+ in 2015). Facing Tim Adleman isn’t too shabby, either, since he’s yielded a .335 OBP, .472 SLG, and .344 wOBA to righties this season.
Outfield
Shin-soo Choo (TEX): $4,100 vs. Orioles
I swear, you’re not reading yesterday’s article all over again. However, I’m going back to the well with Choo against a righty at home. This year, he’s ripped off a .413 OBP, .172 ISO, and 138 wRC+ against righties at home. Since 2015, he has a .390 OBP, .165 ISO, and 124 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at home.
Nomar Mazara (TEX) : $3,800 vs. Orioles
Texas’ number-three hitter is also once again extremely appealing against a righty at home, and at $3,800, he’s a steal. The 22-year-old outfielder has a .379 OBP, .217 ISO, and 139 wRC+ with a 27.0% LD% and 40.9% Hard% against righties in Texas.
Max Kepler (MIN) (MIN): $3,300 @ Athletics
Kepler’s the only non-Ranger in the outfield, but he’s a steal at his paltry salary. The lefty outfielder has improved against righties every season since reaching The Show in 2015, and he’s sporting a .358 OBP, .205 ISO, and 125 wRC+ against them this year. His bat has traveled well, too, with a .341 OBP, .233 ISO, and 123 wRC+ against righties on the road this year and a .339 OBP, .247 ISO, and 124 wRC+ against them on the road since debuting in 2015.
Honorable Mentions
- Eric Thames (MIL): $4,100 vs. Cubs
- Trey Mancini (BAL): $3,700 @ Rangers
- Rajai Davis (OAK): $3,400 vs. Twins
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50
