As we did on last week’s Regression Report, let’s highlight some fantasy-relevant players who have recently seen their ownership decline, this time from the pitching side of the proverbial diamond. Are these sustainable trends that have caused their ownership to dwindle, or are these mere bumps in the road that should see positive regression moving forward?
If the latter is the case (listen, here’s a spoiler: it is), now might be the time to zig while your league mates zag.
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Jameson Taillon (SP – PIT)
55% owned, down 2%
Taillon’s return to the field from a cancer scare has been one of the feel-good stories of 2017, but owning the young Pirate in fantasy hasn’t felt all that good over the last month.
Indeed, the 25-year-old has posted an ugly 8.51 ERA across 24.1 innings since mid-July, including a two-game stretch in which he surrendered 17 earned in just 6.2 frames.
The other numbers from this stretch don’t look as bad, though. For one thing, there’s an over five-run difference between Taillon’s ERA and FIP over the last month, suggesting that the righty has been routinely snake-bitten despite solid skills.
Most of the “under the hood” numbers on Taillon bear this out. Sure, Taillon has surrendered 16 extra-base hits since mid-July, but the overwhelming number of them (11) are doubles. It doesn’t seem like these were all booming doubles either, at least not with Taillon’s modest 30% hard-hit rate over that span. Take one look at the hair-raising .420 BABIP, and it seems clear that better days should be ahead for Taillon.
If your league is one where Taillon was dropped amid his recent poor stretch of results, now’s the time to pounce.
Mike Fiers (SP – HOU)
46% owned, down 15%
The dog days of summer have taken quite a bite out of Astros righty Mike Fiers, who has squandered most of the goodwill that he earned with fantasy owners in June and July by totally collapsing in August.
| Month | IP | ERA | HR/9 | K-BB% |
| June | 31 | 2.32 | 0.0 | 15.3% |
| July | 28 | 2.89 | 1.3 | 23.5% |
| August | 16.1 | 8.82 | 3.3 | 0.0% |
Fiers’ abysmal recent work has owners jumping ship en masse, but let’s not forget that Fiers endured a similar, albeit somewhat less cataclysmic stretch across the first two months of the season, toting an ERA just below 5.00 and an HR/9 mark a tick over 3.0.
And while it’s concerning to see Fiers’ strikeout and walk rates trending in the wrong direction in this limited sample, there’s some solace to be taken in the relatively modest 31% hard-hit rate, even if Fiers 9.26 FIP suggests that he’s actually pitched worse than his already dreadful numbers.
The bottom line is that Fiers is a fly-ball pitcher prone to extreme fluctuations in effectiveness and that 25% homer-per-fly rate is a longshot to stick for what’s left of the season. We’ve seen near greatness from Fiers, as recently as last month, so owners who need strikeout upside and who can afford to stash him for a week or two might want to nab Fiers for a low FAAB bid now while his stock is in the toilet.
Jhoulys Chacin (SP – SD)
37% owned, down 6%
Chacin’s home/road splits this season might explain why, fresh 0ff a two-start week visiting the Reds and Dodgers, Chacin has seen a dip in ownership.
| Sample | ERA | OPS against |
| Home | 1.86 | .545 |
| Away | 6.90 | .885 |
Lost in the broad splits, though, is the fact that Chacin’s dismal numbers on the road are heavily anchored by three absolute meltdowns across the season’s first two months, three starts visiting the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Mets where Chacin surrendered 19 earned runs across 11.2 frames.
Clearly, Chacin’s been working that damage off of his road numbers ever since. He’s actually been doing so quite admirably, with a 3.38 ERA and .678 OPS against across 29.1 innings on the road since the start of June. In fact, one could argue that Chacin’s 22% HR/FB rate away from the friendly environs of Petco could serve to regress a bit closer to his overall 11% career mark, especially considering his meager 25% hard-hit rate in the relevant sample.
In other words, Chacin is looking less like a matchup play and more like a reliable standard league starter. You might fade him when he’s visiting NL-West rivals like the Rockies, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers, but then again, how many pitchers in the bigs would you start in those circumstances?
Adding Chacin won’t raise any eyebrows in your league, but it might help fortify your ratios down the stretch.
Patrick Corbin (SP – ARI)
25% owned, down 5%
Erstwhile fantasy darling Patrick Corbin is fresh off a nice bounce-back start where he limited the Cubs to six baserunners across 6.2 shutout innings, so naturally his ESPN ownership… has dropped?
There is perhaps a certain fatigue with fantasy owners who are tired of playing mix and match with Corbin only to have him lose his way during easy matchups, such as his allowing six runs (three earned) against the lowly Giants just last week.
But Corbin did sit down 10 Giants in that game, as well as eight Cubbies in the start following, helping him to a respectable 17.4% K-BB over his past month of work. Over that span, Corbin has coaxed a strong 36% reach rate with 15% swinging strikes, along with a solid 61% first-pitch strike rate that shows a continuation of the encouraging control trends that made him so effective earlier in the summer.
In short, Corbin’s results seem a little out of line with his skills in the recent sample–and certainly out of line with his dip in ownership. Even a Corbin who maintains a 4.00 ERA is useful in the current environment, especially with his primo strikeout upside.
Mike Clevinger (SP – CLE)
25% owned, down 4%
A temporary demotion to the bullpen had some fantasy owners off the scent of burgeoning Cleveland sophomore Mike Clevinger. Well, that and the 13% walk rate on the season, a mark that balloons near 19% if you highlight only the 26-year-old’s fourseam fastball.
Those who recoil at Clevinger’s 5.48 ERA over his past five appearances might assume that the control issues have spun out of control for the young righty when in reality his walk rate over that span is closer to 10%. Granted, that 42% hard-contact rate makes it hard to fully embrace Clevinger as a fantasy breakout, but it seems fair to look with suspicion at his 65% strand rate and .373 BABIP in the relevant sample.
Clevinger’s counting stat upside (both in the strikeout column and in the win column) make him an interesting dart through, both for the home stretch in 2017 and, perhaps, for drafts in 2018.
Tom Whalen is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Tom, check out his archive or follow him @tomcwhalen.
