Geoff Lambert breaks down Players to Fade in Week 1 DraftKings NFL contests.
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Sometimes winning big in Daily Fantasy is not about who you roster, sometimes it is who you don’t roster. There are many different reasons to “fade” a player. Here are a few of the reasons I will use when fading a player from my lineups:
- Bad matchup
- High ownership with an equal or better alternative
- DraftKings price
Here are this week’s fades…
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Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) @ CLE $7,300
There are a few reasons why I think Big Ben is “fade” worthy. First, he is the most expensive QB on the main slate, and I feel there are better — cheaper — options. The second reason to fade him is his history on the road. To further drive home this point I’m going to quote an ESPN article. Here are three interesting points about Big Ben on the road:
- Roethlisberger has averaged 13.71 fantasy points per game when on the road over the last five years, good for QB22.
- He has had just one game of 25-plus fantasy points on the road in the past three years, and that was in Week 14 of 2014.
- Some of the QBs who have a more recent game with 25-plus points on the road than Big Ben does: Geno Smith, Blaine Gabbert, and Brock Osweiler.
The matchup with the Browns will drive up his ownership with people expecting him to have an easy time against their defense. Last season, in Week 9 at Cleveland, here is his stat line, 23-for-36 167 yards zero touchdowns.
Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs SEA $7,000
Don’t get me wrong, I think Rodgers will have a good “NFL game,” I just don’t think he puts up enough points to justify his price. Over the last three years, Rodgers has averaged 25.1 DK points but only averages 21.2 against the Seahawks. At $7,000, there are better options.
Running Backs
Le’Veon Bell (PIT) @ CLE $9,800
Unlike Roethlisberger, Bell actually plays well on the road. I’m fading him simply based on his price, especially when David Johnson is $400 cheaper. It doesn’t help that Bell didn’t play in any preseason games or practice with the team over a contract dispute. He might be a step slow.
Wide Receivers
Antonio Brown (PIT) @ CLE $8,800
Yes, I am fading all three of Pittsburgh’s “big three.” If I’m fading Big Ben, then you almost have to fade his favorite target. I think Brown still has a decent game, but as the most expensive WR on the slate, I think there are better options.
Jordy Nelson (GB) vs SEA $7,600
Similar to Brown, if I’m fading Rodgers I’m fading his favorite target as well. Nelson played well against the Seahawks last season, but for his career, he has struggled. In fact, the two TDs he caught last season against them are the only two TDs he has had in five career games against the Seahawks.
Tight Ends
Jack Doyle (IND) @ LAR $3,700
Doyle was a popular value tight end a few weeks ago, but in light of the Andrew Luck injury, I wouldn’t touch him. The Colts have a bad offensive line and Scott Tolzien will be the QB. It could be a long day for the Colts offense this week and I want no part of it.
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