I was cooking dinner last night when my sons came rushing upstairs from the basement, their eyes aglow. In their hands, they held bunches of Legos, taken from a storage bin that I have filled to the brim with sets from back when I was young. “Dad, guess what? These Legos that you have downstairs — they don’t even make these sets anymore — they are vintage.” Sigh. Yep, I’m old. But with age comes experience, and Legos aren’t the only hobby that I’ve had for a long time. I’ve played fantasy football for almost two decades now, and what started as an obsession has developed into a career.
During those 20 years, I’ve learned a thing or two, including one of the most important bits of wisdom that I’ll happily pass along: Volume. Is. King.
Touches translate directly into scoring opportunities, and managers would be wise to prioritize players who are the focal points of their offenses. This especially rings true in PPR formats — receptions directly equate into points. And while some players stand to benefit from that format, others take a hit in fantasy football rankings.
Committee running backs who primarily operate on early-down and goal-line situations, coupled with “deep threat” wide receivers and tight ends who are exclusively used within the red zone, are the primary culprits here.
Could they still provide a return on investment for their managers? Sure, but they need to truly maximize their efficiency with each touch, as they aren’t major volume threats within the passing game.
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Fantasy Football Players to Avoid
Which players experience the biggest decline, you wonder? Here are a few options I’d actively avoid in PPR formats, if possible.
Running Backs
James Cook III (RB – BUF)
Last year’s fantasy RB6, James Cook had a true breakout season, rushing for a career-high and league-leading 1,621 yards on 309 carries. Yet, even in the midst of that outstanding campaign, Cook caught just 33 passes on 40 targets.
Other mid-range RB1s offer a much higher receiving floor, within a similarly steep price range. A quick glance at Cook’s career confirms that Buffalo is comfortable forcing passing targets elsewhere. During his four seasons with the Bills, Cook surpassed 35 receptions just once.
Former offensive coordinator Joe Brady is now the team’s head coach, but he is still expected to retain play-calling duties. Unless the Bills’ philosophy changes, Cook can be knocked down a few pegs in PPR formats.
Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI)
Yep, you read that right. Saquon Barkley makes this list not due to his lack of chops as a viable threat in the passing game, but more because of his underutilization by Philadelphia.
As the feature back with New York from 2018-2023, Barkley was routinely used on screen passes and checkdowns in Big Blue’s offense — that changed once he joined Philadelphia. Over the last two seasons, Barkley has averaged just 35 receptions for 275 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
Those numbers are middling, at best, for a “set-it-and-forget-it” RB1, and the 2024 fantasy MVP. A decline in per-touch efficiency, as he nears 30, is also working against him. Barkley has steadily transitioned away from being a big-play threat and into more of a volume-based option at running back, as he enters his ninth season in the NFL.
Derrick Henry (RB – BAL)
Derrick Henry might very well be the poster child for this article, all things considered. No one can question how elite Henry has been since taking over as the featured back during the 2018 season.
Henry has eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards in seven of the last eight seasons and is always among the league leaders in rushing touchdowns, finishing as a top-10 back six times since 2019. Yet, for all of his accolades as the league’s most physical runner, Henry is a non-factor in Baltimore’s passing game.
With 20 or fewer receptions in eight of Henry’s 10 NFL seasons, I don’t envision a sudden shift turning him into the next Christian McCaffrey or Jahmyr Gibbs. Managers should treat him as an upside RB2 in PPR formats.
Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE)
Quinshon Judkins enjoyed a very solid rookie season with Cleveland in 2025, rushing for 827 yards and seven touchdowns on 230 carries across 14 games. The thunder to Dylan Sampson‘s lightning for the Browns’ all-rookie backfield, Judkins solidified himself as a volume-based thumper who slowly grinds defenders into submission.
Even glancing back to his days at Ohio State, Judkins wasn’t used much as a receiver, in favor of his more bruising style. A rebuilt offensive line for Cleveland will look to open up more holes for Judkins. But I don’t envision him catching more than 35 passes after he saw fewer than three targets per game in 2025, especially given the receiving threats the Browns possess.
Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown (WR – NE)
It still feels odd writing that A.J. Brown is a member of the New England Patriots, but so be it. Since entering the league in 2019, Brown has consistently demonstrated an ability to rack up massive yards after the catch (YAC) numbers, but has never been a true volume-based receiver.
Glancing through Brown’s statistics, if one were to remove his totals for the 2023 season (which was an outlier), Brown averaged fewer than 70 receptions per season. Injuries have played a part in his middling totals, but Brown is exclusively a perimeter threat.
A change of scenery in Foxborough gives me hope for a return to WR1 numbers (he hasn’t done that since 2023). Even in an alpha role, though, Brown won’t command the same sort of volume as others in his territory.
Tetairoa McMillan (WR – CAR)
Tetairoa McMillan had a stellar first season, earning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors on a 70/1,014/7 split. Furthermore, he commanded a 23% target share for Carolina’s offense. When the Panthers wanted to throw the ball, he was typically the first read.
The main problem?
Carolina doesn’t want to throw the ball and instead leans heavily on its run game to move the chains on each possession. Quarterback Bryce Young finished 14th in the league with 478 pass attempts, averaging a paltry 6.3 yards per attempt (YPA) when dropping back as a pure game-manager.
Young has made incremental progress as a passer, but head coach Dave Canales seems content with handing the ball off to Chuba Hubbard whenever possible, and former second-round selection Jonathon Brooks will return healthy this season. McMillan will undoubtedly lead Carolina in targets again, but that number is hard-capped.
Terry McLaurin (WR – WSH)
I wrote about Terry McLaurin as a bounce-back wide receiver to target, but I’m still realistic about what he is and who he plays for.
When healthy, McLaurin has been an extremely reliable WR2 for fantasy purposes, posting consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons from 2020 to 2024. Even in the midst of those strong totals, McLaurin averaged just 80 receptions each season, despite being the first read in the offense.
Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz are both gone, but even in their absence, Washington will look to spread the ball around to tertiary options like Antonio Williams or Chig Okonkwo. McLaurin still represents a solid buy-low/bounce-back player, but be realistic about his actual ceiling in Washington’s offense.
Davante Adams (WR – LAR)
Davante Adams finished as the fantasy WR8 last season, during his first full year in Los Angeles. His chemistry with quarterback Matthew Stafford is undeniable, especially in situations where the Rams are around the end zone. That said, banking on Adams to return WR1 value again is playing with fire, considering that 14 of his 60 receptions last year went for touchdowns.
An easy selection for regression, Adams is coming off a career-low catch rate (53%) and YAC per reception total. Now 33 years old, Adams will need to compete with Puka Nacua and the Rams’ bevy of tight ends for targets this year. He is still one of the league’s best route runners in his 14th season, but doesn’t offer the same volume upside as other WR2s.
Tight Ends
Mark Andrews (TE – BAL)
Let’s be honest — most tight ends not named Trey McBride, Brock Bowers or Colston Loveland are going to decline in PPR formats — the position doesn’t see the same volume as wide receiver. However, even among the TE1 tier, several rely on maximizing their per-touch efficiency, operating as “touchdown-or-bust” options, most notably Mark Andrews.
While some analysts are comfortable marking Andrews as a bounce-back candidate following Isaiah Likely‘s departure, I think his 2025 totals should be the new baseline to replicate.
Andrews’ chemistry with quarterback Lamar Jackson is undeniable, but he has recorded 50 receptions or fewer in two of the past three years and has surpassed 74 receptions just once in his eight seasons with the Ravens. Even with a new offense in place, I can’t see him becoming the new focal point.
Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF)
Dalton Kincaid is a player whom I refer to as “reliably unreliable.” When actually on the field and healthy, he commands a modest snap count and target share in Buffalo’s elite offense, offering enticing upside that managers consistently chase.
The problem is that Kincaid is typically nursing a soft-tissue injury. Bills general manager Brandon Beane has already said they might need to manage his workload to keep him on the field in 2026.
Competing for targets with Dawson Knox was difficult enough, but now the team added wideout DJ Moore in the offseason, who will command plenty of looks from Josh Allen.
Even in a situation where Kincaid finds a way to stay on the field for a full 17 games, Kincaid will need to be ultra-efficient with his touches to provide any sort of return on investment for fantasy purposes, and history is working against that happening. Hopefully, the former first-round selection can finally put it all together in his fourth season and prove me wrong.
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