We’ve been sailing along now for most of the season, and although we’ve dealt with some injuries to major fantasy studs, we’ve almost always had some streaming options. But now we hit a critical stretch of the fantasy season, with six teams on bye both this week and next. It’s at that point that we really need to analyze the borderline starters to determine which guys to utilize to stave off disaster.

In light of the smaller player pool, we’re going to change up our start/sit column for the next week or two, and instead I’ll give just one start and one sit per position. As always, these are guys I’m either higher or lower on than the expert consensus rankings.

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Quarterbacks

Start

Jameis Winston (TB v. CAR): ECR of 12
Winston had a surprisingly excellent start last week against the Bills, throwing for 384 yards and three touchdowns despite getting off to a slow start. He looked to have no limitations from his sprained AC joint in his shoulder, which obviously bodes well for him going forward. The Panthers have allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, but they’ve allowed multiple passing touchdowns to four of the last five quarterbacks they’ve faced, with Mitchell Trubisky and his seven pass attempts the lone exception. The defense can be handled well by upper-tier quarterbacks, and Winston certainly qualifies. He should do well here again in what amounts to a must-win game for the Bucs.

Sit

Derek Carr (OAK at BUF): ECR of 15

Carr exploded for three touchdowns and 417 yards passing on Thursday against the Chiefs, but he’s unlikely to sniff those numbers this weekend in Buffalo. The Bills allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and that includes last week’s monstrous effort by Winston. Before last week, they had yet to allow more than one passing touchdown to any quarterback, and had not allowed a passing touchdown at home, where opposing quarterbacks had averaged just 8.5 fantasy points. Carr should be a streaming option most weeks, but even with all the byes, I’d personally avoid him if I could.

Running Backs

Start

Ameer Abdullah (DET v. PIT): ECR of 20
Abdullah has certainly been a disappointment for fantasy owners this season, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry and scoring just one touchdown. But he’s seen an average of more than 16 touches per game, and is plainly a large part of the gameplan each and every week. The Steelers have a tough defense, certainly, but it’s not nearly as strong against the run, and they allow the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Even if it falls on the “tougher” side of Abdullah’s matchups this year, the young back has a way of excelling in spite of the strength of his opponent, as his two biggest games have come against the Giants and the Vikings. Abdullah’s not a stud here, but as the guy getting the lion’s share of the work (see what I did there) in a nationally-televised home matchup off a bye, he’s a definite comfortable start.

Sit

Robert Kelley (WAS v. DAL): ECR of 33
Kelley returned from an ankle injury on Monday against Philadelphia and saw nine touches, including his first two catches of the year. Unfortunately, as has been the case so often this season, he did little with those touches. The Cowboys are a much easier matchup than the Eagles, but they’re very difficult to run against when Sean Lee is healthy, as he is now. Kelley cedes significant work to Chris Thompson who, assuming he’s healthy, should be much more involved on Sunday. Kelley is a desperation RB3 for me.

Wide Receivers

Start

Jeremy Maclin (BAL v. MIA): ECR of 42
(Note: this is only if Maclin is starting. I repeat, I do not recommend starting Jeremy Maclin if he is inactive on Thursday. That would be a poor decision). I’m expecting Maclin to suit up here, both because he was expected to play last week and because the Ravens are actively running out of wide receivers to start. The Dolphins secondary is messy, and they just released Byron Maxwell, which sounds like it ruffled some feathers in the unit. On the road, the Dolphins have allowed an average of 13 receptions and 185 yards receiving to opposing wide receivers, with two touchdowns in three games. Maclin has seen his targets stay steady or increase in every game this season, and he should be in line for a healthy dose of work on Thursday. Let’s not go crazy – he’s a Flex play for me, but the consensus has him ranked beyond that.

Sit

Will Fuller (HOU at SEA): ECR of 27
Fuller has five touchdowns on 14 targets this year.  That’s . . . insane. He’s still a fine long-term option, as his targets should increase going forward, making the inevitable decline in touchdown rate palatable. But for this week against a tough Seattle defense, it’s hard to feel good about the matchup. Putting aside that the Seahawks allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, there’s a good chance that Fuller will see a lot of Richard Sherman this week. Sherman generally sticks to the right side of the field, which is where Fuller has played on the majority of his snaps. If this is the rare case where Sherman follows DeAndre Hopkins, then Fuller would make a passable option. But as it stands, the Seahawks have allowed the fewest fantasy points to receivers playing on the right side of the field. That makes Fuller a tough start.

Tight End

Start

Tyler Kroft (CIN v. IND): ECR of 12
Ya’ll remember Tyler Eifert and how Andy Dalton loved to throw to him and how he caught touchdowns all the time? Cool, now replace “Eifert” with “Kroft” and you’re pretty much where you were a year ago. Over his last four games, Kroft has caught 17 of 20 targets and scored three touchdowns. The Colts allow the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, which include matchups against stalwarts such as Tyler Higbee, Jermaine Gresham, David Njoku, and Marcedes Lewis. There are few reliable options for Cincinnati outside of A.J. Green. Kroft is an excellent play this weekend.

Sit

Jared Cook (OAK at BUF): ECR of 11
Cook had a big day on Thursday against the Chiefs, but as with Carr, I’m not expecting anything close to a repeat performance against the Bills. Buffalo allowed two touchdowns to O.J. Howard on Sunday, and 12 catches for 158 yards to Howard and Brate combined. In their five previous games, the Bills had allowed 25 catches for 248 yards with no touchdowns to opposing tight ends. So, either you believe the Bucs game was a sea change in the Bills defense, or an outlier. I lean toward the latter.

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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.