A massive game stack featuring five players highlights this week’s lineup advice. The leader of that game stack is playing excellent real-life football, but the emergence of a talented one-two punch in his backfield has helped hold his fantasy point scoring in check.
He’s paired with a couple of his wideouts, and a pair of pass catchers from the opposition join the QB/WR/WR stack. That quintet is joined by a high-upside — but almost certainly chalky — RB/DST stack.
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Drew Brees (QB – NO): $7,000 vs. Buccaneers
Michael Thomas (WR – NO): $7,200 vs. Buccaneers
Brandon Coleman (WR – NO): $3,400 vs. Buccaneers
DeSean Jackson (WR – TB): $5,500 @ Saints
O.J. Howard (TE – TB): $2,700 @ Saints
The Saints make up 60% of this five-man game stack, and with an implied team over/under total of 28.5 points, per Pinnacle, that makes sense. The Saints’ defense has played well, and their running game is in the middle of the pack in total yards rushing on the season, and that means Brees and Co. haven’t had to play chuck-it-up, catch-up football week in and week out this year. The result is a lack of eye-popping fantasy scoring outputs for Brees this year, but this game sets up nicely for a vintage line. Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Buccaneers 20th defending the run — which is exploitable, sure — and one spot out of the basement (31st) defending the pass.
Tampa Bay’s secondary is banged up, and they haven’t made up for the injuries with a pass rush. The Bucs rank dead last in the league with only seven sacks in seven games.
Their inability to rush the passer sets up nicely for Brees to carve them up through the air, and top wideout on the squad, Michael Thomas, is the apparent stack partner for him. Thomas was included on the FanDuel Thur/Sun/Mon lineup, and you can read why I like him there and apply the analysis to including him on this team.
Coleman is a bigger dice roll. He’s big-play dependent and has a single-game high of only six targets this year. Coleman has reached or exceeded a half-dozen targets only seven times in 39 games played in two-plus seasons.
This is long way of reiterating that he’s big-play dependent and doesn’t see much volume. Having said that, the skyscraper (6-foot-6 and 225 pounds) receiver makes big plays, and he’s done his best big-play work at home in his career. He’s averaged only 11.94 yards per reception in road games, but that mark shoots up to 16.53 yards per reception in 19 home games, per Pro-Football-Reference.
In addition to ripping off more yards per reception at home, his yards per target shoots up from 7.33 on the road to 11.47 at home, and his catch percentage swells from 61.4% on the road to 69.4% at home. He seems to benefit significantly from Brees’ pronounced home/road splits that favor playing at home. The third-year receiver’s ability to hit homers pairs well with Tampa Bay giving up big receptions.
The Buccaneers sit in the middle of the pack tied for 18th in 20-plus yard receptions allowed (21) despite having their bye in Week 1, and they’re tied for the ninth most 40-plus yard receptions (five) coughed up. Coleman’s fantasy value is also boosted by the frequent targets Brees throws his way in the red zone and end zone. PlayerProfiler.com credits Coleman with five targets in the end zone and four in the red zone this year.
He’s turned those steady looks into three touchdown grabs. At such a minimal salary commitment, one long touchdown grab or a few grabs with one finding paydirt would provide a nifty ROI.
Tampa Bay’s implied team over/under total of 21.5 points is far less exciting than New Orleans’, but a seven-point spread with the Bucs serving as underdogs bodes well for game script leaning in favor of their pass catchers. Mike Evans and Cameron Brate are the top WR and top TE, respectively, that gamers will turn to from the Bucs, but D-Jax and Howard are considerably cheaper, have ample upside, and have the added benefit of likely lower ownership rates that play well in GPPs. Pro Football Focus (PFF) has Jackson ranked 10th in wide receiver grade this year.
Historically a highly-volatility player, he’s seen a regular, steady diet of targets this year. His season low for targets is six with a season-high for targets of nine.
He’s caught three or more passes in six of seven contests, and he’s bested 70 yards or scored a touchdown four times (doing both in Week 3). Furthermore, his game-changing speed always gives him a shot to rip off a long touchdown (or multiple long touchdowns).
Rookie O.J. Howard has great measurables and can pose matchup problems. He’s trailed Brate in usage at tight end, but he’s used his size and speed advantages to bludgeon opponents for 17.0 yards per reception, and he’s also caught three touchdown passes. He’s largely been quiet this season, but he does have a pair of good-to-excellent showings (2-63-1 in Week 4 and 6-98-2 in Week 7).
The Saints have been tough for tight ends to score fantasy points on and have held them to the fifth fewest DraftKings points per game. FO ranks them ninth defending tight ends. However, hiding underneath those strong marks is a fairly intriguing 11.8 yards per reception yielded to tight ends this year.
Howard’s ability to rip off chunk plays meshes nicely with the Saints giving up a fairly robust yards per reception to tight ends. The floor is low for the rookie tight end, but the ceiling is what we’re interested in, and a sub-$3,000 salary is very helpful for fleshing out the rest of the roster with some big-ticket players.
Leonard Fournette (RB – JAX): $8,400 vs. Bengals
Jaguars (DST – Jax): $3,800 vs. Bengals
This stack doesn’t need a hell of a lot of explanation, so I’ll keep it short and sweet. Fournette doesn’t have an injury designation after being inactive before Jacksonville’s Week 8 bye, and he’s poised to get back to building on his monster rookie year. The bruising runner ranks ninth in carries (130), sixth in rushing yards (596), tied for first in rushing touchdowns (six), first in rushing yards per game (99.3), and ninth in yards from scrimmage (732).
He’s done all of this while having a bye and missing a game. He’s a monster, and Jacksonville being favored by 4.5 points plays into his hands for another big workload. Jacksonville’s DST is also positioned nicely as home favorites. Cincinnati’s implied team over/under total is a tiny 17.5 points.
FO ranks the Jaguars 32nd defending the run, yet they’ve been so dominant as the top-ranked pass defense there that they rank first in overall defense DVOA. The Bengals rank 30th in rushing yards per game (78.4) and are ill-equipped to attack Jacksonville’s defensive weakness. Jacksonville could also prove to be better defending the run after acquiring Marcell Dareus to help shore up their defensive line.
Getting back to the ineptitude of the Bengals’ offense, they are tied for the third most turnovers (15), tied for the 10th most sacks allowed (22), and are tied for 22nd in yards per play (4.9). They’re a well below average defense tasked with attempting to move the ball and avoid turnovers against a talented Jaguars’ defense that’s had an extra week to prepare coming off of a bye.
This same defense also is tied for third in turnovers forced (16), first in sacks (33) by a margin of a half-dozen over the second highest sack total (in one fewer game played), and first in scoring defense (15.7 points per game). I’m completely head over heels for a Fournette/Jaguars DST stack.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.