This week’s FanDuel Thur/Sun/Mon lineup features a stack from the Thursday Night Football game that will net a healthy ownership rate, but one that’s worth eating some chalk to roster. The Texans have been white hot offensively, but it’s not their electric rookie quarterback or top two receivers who are included on the roster below. Instead, the team below features a QB/TE stack with a high ceiling. The receiving corps features a No. 1 receiver at home in a juicy matchup, and a pair of wideouts opposing each other who are coming off of big Week 8 showings.
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Quarterback
Carson Wentz (PHI): $8,000 vs. Broncos
Wentz is having an MVP-caliber sophomore season. This year, he ranks sixth in pass attempts (264), tied for first in touchdown passes (19), tied for seventh in yards per attempt (7.8), tied for third in adjusted yards per attempt (8.4), 10th in passing yards per game (257.9), and seventh in Quarterback Rating (101.6), per Pro-Football Reference. He also adds value with his legs with 25.4 yards rushing per game. Denver’s defense is very good, but they’re much stingier defending the run than the pass, and Football Outsiders (FO) ranks them 13th in pass defense. Wentz and the Eagles are 8-point favorites at home, per Pinnacle, and their implied team over/under total is 25.75 points. It makes sense for the Eagles to attack Denver’s defense through the air, and the implied total is favorable.
Running Back
LeSean McCoy (BUF): $8,500 @ Jets
Shady will soon get help on offense, but it’s hard to envision Kelvin Benjamin having anything more than a very limited role if he’s active at all on Thursday Night. It should be the Shady Show again, and in the season opener against the Jets in Buffalo, he carried the ball 22 times for 110 yards and caught five passes for 49 yards. McCoy’s averaging 19.6 rushes per game, 5.4 receptions per game, and 109.0 yards from scrimmage per game. After being kept out of the end zone for the first five games of the year, McCoy’s scored touchdowns in back-to-back games and totaled three in his last two games combined. The Bills’ implied team total of 23 points is solid but not spectacular, and a 3-point spread favoring the Bills is good for McCoy’s outlook for carries, though, he’s game-script proof anyway. Shady should be in line for a big game against a Jets’ defense that’s tied for the ninth most FanDuel points yielded per game to running backs, according to Pro-Football Reference, and ranks 18th in run defense and 27th defending running backs in the passing game, per FO.
Lamar Miller (HOU): $7,500 vs. Colts
There’s a lot to like about Miller this week. The Texans are 13-point favorites with an implied team total of 31 points. The spread suggests a blowout and a great opportunity for Miller to pile up carries. Miller’s touched the ball at least 15 times in every game, and he’s averaging 19.6 touches per game and 88.6 yards from scrimmage per game this season. He’s reached pay dirt four times this year, and in Houston’s blowout win against the Titans, Miller rushed for 75 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries while tallying a 4-56-1 receiving line. This game has mega blowout potential, too, and the Colts are even more giving to running backs than the Titans. Indianapolis has allowed the seventh most FanDuel points per game to running backs this year, and FO ranks them 19th defending the run and dead last defending running backs as receivers. I suspect Miller will be included in some 3-player stacks with Deshaun Watson and either DeAndre Hopkins or Will Fuller, but I’m content using him as a standalone option and think Miller’s ownership rate will lag behind the other three.
Wide Receiver
Michael Thomas (NO): $7,600 vs. Buccaneers
Thomas has yet to reach 20 FanDuel points in a game this year. He’s been more good than great this season, but he has another opportunity for a massive game this week. FO ranks the Bucs 31st defending the pass and 27th defending No. 1 receivers, and they’ve allowed the second most FanDuel points per game to receivers. The sophomore receiver has been targeted at least six times in every game this year and eight or more times in six of seven contests. He’s bested 75 yards receiving five times this year, and he torched the Bucs for six receptions and 98 yards in his only game against them last year.
Paul Richardson (SEA): $5,800 vs. Redskins
This pick feels a little point chasy after Richardson erupted for a 6-105-2 line in a shootout against the Texans in Seattle last week. I assure you it’s not. Richardson’s been no stranger to the end zone this year and is tied for sixth in touchdown receptions (five). He’s also used his top-flight speed to his advantage and ranks seventh among qualified pass catchers in yards per reception (17.0). Washington has been somewhat susceptible to long receptions this year tying for the eighth most 20-plus yard receptions allowed, per NFL.com, adding to the appeal of using Richardson. The fourth-year pro ranks 10th in DYAR and fourth in DVOA out of 69 qualified receivers, per FO. Pro Football Focus (PFF) shows him drawing Josh Norman in 3-receiver sets, but he matches up with Bashaud Breeland (PFF’s 88th ranked cornerback) when Seattle uses just two wideouts. There’s more to beating a corner than posting a blistering 40-yard dash time, but Richardson (4.40 second 40-yard dash at the NFL Draft Combine) has a speed advantage over both Norman (4.66 second) and Breeland (4.62 second), and the receiver’s ability to stretch the field pairs perfectly with Russell Wilson’s ability to extend plays with his legs. Seattle is a 7.5-point favorite at home with an implied team over/under total of 26.25 points, and they continue to be dependent on their passing offense with their backfield struggling mightily.
Jamison Crowder (WAS): $5,600 @ Seahawks
Washington’s implied over/under total of 18.75 points is less than ideal, but as 7.5-point underdogs, Crowder should be busy in the event the Redskins are stuck playing catch up like they project to be. Crowder’s been extremely quiet this year but erupted for single-game highs of 13 targets, nine receptions, and 123 yards receiving last week against the Cowboys. Washington is looking for answers at wide receiver, but Crowder has consistently been on the field this year and is the only receiver on the team to best 50 offensive snaps in all three games since the team’s Week 5 bye. Seattle’s secondary is talented, but Crowder will at least avoid Richard Sherman when he lines up in the slot in 3-receiver sets. Crowder is the pick on this roster I’m least enamored with, but he’s a decent value with upside. If you’d prefer look elsewhere, my suggestion is to spin down from this roster’s kicker and defense and drop $6,000 on Marvin Jones.
Tight End
Zach Ertz (PHI): $7,600 vs. Broncos
Ertz is the obvious stack partner with Wentz, but boy oh boy is he a good one. Among tight ends this year, he ranks first in targets (64) and touchdown receptions (six), and second in receptions (43) and receiving yards (528) while checking in third in receiving yards per game (66.0). Denver hasn’t had many answers for tight ends this year and has coughed up the third most FanDuel points per game to them, and FO ranks the Broncos 27th defending the position.
Kicker
Blair Walsh (SEA): $4,700 vs. Redskins
Walsh is kicking well in his first season with the Seahawks. He’s knocked through 12 of 13 field goal attempts and successfully converted 17 of 18 point after attempts. He’s attached to an implied team over/under total of 26.25 points for the 7.5-point favored Seahawks, and Washington has had the third most field goals attempted against them (20) and played one less game than the two teams that have had more attempted against them.
Defense/Special Teams
Bills (BUF): $4,700 @ Jets
Buffalo’s defense deserves a ton of credit for their 5-2 record through seven games. The Bills are tied for the lead in turnovers forced (17) and tied for second in scoring defense (16.4). FO ranks them 10th in defense DVOA, 12th defending the pass, and eighth defending the run. They held the Jets to just 12 points and 214 total yards of offense in Week 1 in Buffalo, and the Bills are favored by three points in their second meeting. The Jets’ implied team total of only 20 points is non-threatening, and Buffalo’s D/ST make for a great correlation stack partner with Shady.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
