Every season there are key questions to answer before the NFL Draft. The pre-draft process can be lying time in the NFL. Teams, players, anonymous scouts and agents posture, leak and manipulate facts for their given causes.
By focusing on key storylines in the process, you will be able to sift through the noise to structure your draft board better in May. Here are some key questions to answer.
Baker Mayfield’s “Character”
A narrative sure to draw significant media attention before the NFL Draft will be Baker Mayfield’s “character.” “Character” will be a catch-all term to include his flag plant, crotch grab, errant throw, and disorderly conduct arrest.
Mayfield’s conduct will fit a range of narratives. On one extreme, Mayfield is an extremely competitive college student who needs to reign in his passion.
On the other, a Johnny Manziel-like problem child incapable of leading an NFL franchise. NFL franchises will have exponentially larger profiles of Mayfield than will be publicly accessible, but interviews are a good place to start.
The best source of information will be reporters or analysts doing deep dives on Mayfield’s character rather than anonymous snippets that will inevitably flow in the next four months. Mayfield’s resume warrants a top-five NFL selection, and the pre-draft process is crucial to his draft spot. He has started the process well with good reviews at the Senior Bowl.
Derrius Guice’s Health
Derrius Guice was injured for much of the 2017 season. His health and his weight are a big portion of his profile. If Guice checks out with good health at 220 pounds or higher, he should be a Day One pick and a top two rookie pick.
If his injuries are chronic or he weighs in less than 220 pounds, there will be questions about his longevity with his violent running style. These may cause him to slip out of Day One of the draft and get selected lower in the first round of rookie drafts.
Nick Chubb’s Knee
Nick Chubb tore his PCL and did other damage to his knee during his sophomore year in 2015. The injury was more complicated than a typical ACL injury, and Chubb returned to have a below expectation 2016.
Chubb had a good 2017 season, and his athleticism appeared on tape to have returned to pre-injury form. His physicals on his knee are the difference between a Day One and Day Three selection.
Kalen Ballage’s Profile
Kalen Ballage is a big running back, that can catch, with 4.3x 40-yard dash type athleticism in his range of outcomes. That is a tantalizing profile in the David Johnson-realm of the running back position. However, he was never a workhorse back in college and produced a dismal 4.4 yards per carry in college.
While it is not unheard of for a player to step out of a limited college role into NFL success (like Alvin Kamara), Ballage needs the whole process to break right for him. His combine and draft position will go a long way to determine whether he is worth a late first round rookie pick or a Round 3 dart throw.
Bo Scarborough’s Durability
Bo Scarbrough was a big-time recruit who ended up at a running back factory in Alabama. While at Alabama he has struggled with injuries, and never carried the ball 20 times in a game.
This could be a tactical decision by Alabama, to preserve Scarbrough for crucial end of season games, or a sign of his fragility. His health will be a critical factor in determining whether he is a late first-round rookie pick or a third-round flip player.
Can Ronald Jones be a pass catcher?
Running backs that weigh less than 210 pounds need to be dynamic athletes who can catch passes to be reliable dynasty assets. Ronald Jones will likely qualify as a dynamic athlete but has major pass-catching questions. His produced less than a catch per game in college (0.8), which does not inspire confidence that he can be relied upon as a receiving back at the next level.
This combined with his low weight is far from ideal for a fantasy perspective because it points to a “between the 20s” runner. These runners cannot rely on receptions to boost their floor and do not handle goal-line carries.
What Kind of Athlete is Courtland Sutton?
Courtland Sutton is an intriguing receiver in a class that has more bridesmaids than brides. Sutton has strong college production, is 6’4″ and plays the position stylistically like DeAndre Hopkins. However, he was a weak defensive back recruit who converted to receiver at SMU.
The biggest question about Sutton is his athleticism. Big time athletes in Sutton’s frame end up in the Big 12 or SEC, not SMU athletes. Since 2006, only two receivers outside of power five conferences were drafted in the first round:
Corey Davis, the FBS all-time leader in receiving yards, and Breshad Perriman, who ran in the 4.2s at his Pro Day. Sutton could be a top-10 pick in this year’s NFL Draft, but he needs to demonstrate good athleticism in the pre-draft process.
James Washington’s 40 time
James Washington may be the best deep threat in this draft class after he averaged 19.7 yards per catch during his college career. He has a strong metric and production profile, but his deep threat is more technique based than pure speed based.
Washington looks more in the mid 4.4s on tape than the sub 4.4 deep threats like Will Fuller, Breshad Perriman, and John Ross who have vaulted into Day One. If Washington runs in the 4.4s, he will be an interesting test case of how high a deep threat who is not a speed merchant can go in the NFL Draft.
Will D.J. Moore’s Metric Hype Train Be Warranted?
D.J. Moore is not a household name, but he is likely to be a favorite of the metric community in the pre-draft process. He enters the NFL finishing second in the country in both receiving yardage and reception market share while accounting for over half of Maryland’s receiving touchdowns in 2017.
Moore was listed at 5’11” and 215 pounds which is a strong physical profile. His athletic testing will be important, and if he is drafted on Day Two, he will be a target player in the middle of the second round of rookie drafts.
Mark Andrews’ Diabetes
Mark Andrews is a productive tight end who fits the mold of a first-round NFL pick. He has type 1 diabetes, which he manages in game. His diabetes had resulted in a near-death scare in an Oklahoma dorm room.
Diabetes is not unheard of in the NFL as Jay Cutler has battled the condition for years, so keep news analysis of Andrews’s condition in perspective during the process. His athletic testing should mean more to his value than diabetes will.
Jordan McNamara is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jordan, check out his archive and follow him @McNamaraDynasty.
