The months of January and February are exciting times in the NBA and the fantasy basketball world as well. The NBA trade deadline is coming right up on February 8, and you know what that means.
That’s right, plenty of NBA players are going to be on the move to new teams. A lot of those will be productive veterans on bad teams like one of the players I’ll get into below. Now is a great time to start making moves to deal these veterans away or to add players that likely will be getting a lot more minutes the rest of the season.
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Players to Buy
Lauri Markkanen (PF – CHI)
The rookie campaign for Lauri Markkanen has experienced some typical rookie highs and lows already. After starting the season on a roll, Markkanen slowed some in November and December and appeared to have hit the infamous “rookie wall.”
However, since the calendar flipped to 2018, the Finnish rookie has found another gear and is playing his best basketball of the season. In eight January games, Markkanen is averaging 19.4 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 3.8 three-pointers on 51.4% from the field, 51.7% from downtown, and 93.8% from the free throw line. That’s good enough for top-20 value in that timespan.
He’s been draining three-pointers at a record rate too. Well, at least for a rookie. Markkanen nailed his 100th three-pointer the other day in only his 41st career game, which is the quickest in NBA history. Quicker than Stephen Curry, Reggie Miller, Ray Allen, and everyone else.
With the Bulls tanking, I mean struggling, and Nikola Mirotic likely to be dealt before the deadline, Markkanen’s arrow is trending upwards for the rest of the season. Now is probably the last time you can get him at this value this season.
Dragan Bender (PF – PHO)
Another two players that are likely to get dealt before the deadline are Tyson Chandler and Greg Monroe. The Suns are apparently in a rebuild and have no use for aging veterans taking away minutes from their young players. One of those young players that is already seeing an uptick in minutes lately and should continue to see his value trend upwards as the season progresses is Dragan Bender.
Bender has received 30+ minutes in each of the last four games. Two of those happened to be stinkers, including a goose egg in the scoring department on the 14th against Indiana.
However, the other two games gave us a glimpse into Bender’s high fantasy upside. In those two games, he averaged 17.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.5 blocks, and 4.5 three-pointers.
That pace certainly isn’t sustainable, but it shows that Benders best days are still to come this season. Now is the time to invest here as his value will likely never be lower this season.
Players to Sell
Isaiah Thomas (PG – CLE)
We all knew coming into the season that Isaiah Thomas’ fantasy value was going to take a hit playing second or third fiddle to LeBron James and sometimes Kevin Love. When your biggest fantasy contributions are scoring and three-pointers, dropping a few notches on the offensive totem pole is never a positive. Add in a hip injury that required off-season surgery, and you’re throwing more of a damper on Thomas’ 2017-18 fantasy value.
In his first five games back, Thomas has averaged 13.6 points, 3.4 assists, 1.4 3-pointers, and 2.4 turnovers in 23.1 minutes per game. That’s not too bad for the minutes he’s been playing, but what has been bad is his shooting.
Thomas is shooting just 36.1% from the field, 23.3% from deep, and even 69.2% from the line. Who are you, Lonzo Ball?
This very well could be just rust and have nothing to do with any potential lingering concerns of his hip. However, we know how this Cleveland team operates.
Their stars are going to get plenty of rest down the stretch to ensure fresh legs for the playoff run, and that is especially true with Thomas. His current 23.1 MPG isn’t likely to rise too much as the season progresses and he’ll likely have a few more days off than James or Love.
Is he still worth owning? Of course. But, there are going to be a lot of headaches and sleepless nights along the way.
Ok, that might be a tad far, but you catch my drift. If you can get anything in return for Thomas, now is the time to act.
Gerald Green (SG/SF – HOU)
The return of James Harden is imminent. I repeat, Harden’s return is imminent.
Once Harden does return in the next game or two, Green will find himself once again coming off the bench in Houston. A return to the bench doesn’t kill Green’s value, but it does take some of the shine of his recent hot stretch during Harden’s absence.
Over his last nine games, Green is averaging 17.3 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3.8 threes in around 28.4 minutes per game. With Harden back in the lineup, you can expect all of those numbers, especially the points and minutes to experience a decent drop-off. This one is a rather simple recommendation.
The window to sell Green for any type of value is about to be firmly shut. It wouldn’t hurt to throw out a few offers and see if anyone in your league bites. If not, dropping him once Harden returns is perfectly okay.
Nikola Mirotic (SF/PF – HOU)
Outside of injuries, the most significant factor in creating or killing fantasy value is the NBA trade deadline, which is coming up in a few weeks. Good veteran players on bad teams often get dealt to contenders where their role and fantasy value shrink. Mitotic falls firmly into that group of players that should be dealt in the upcoming weeks.
After missing nearly the first two months of the season, Mirotic has performed quite well since returning to the Bulls lineup. In 19 games, he’s averaging 17.3 points 6.8 rebounds, and 2.8 threes on 47.9% from the field. Big men that can shoot are a delicacy in today’s NBA, so you can expect many contending teams to be calling the Bulls repeatedly to try and work out a deal to acquire Mirotic’s services.
Unfortunately for current Mirotic owners, that will mean a likely drop in value. Mirotic is one of the top scoring options on this young Bulls team. That’s not going to be the case if he’s traded to a team with established stars already in place. He’ll likely still put up back-end fantasy value, but now is the time to sell high on Mirotic before his value takes a turn for the worst.
Eric Cross is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @EricCross04.