Power is clearly up across the game, and finding dingers isn’t hard. Stolen bases, on the other hand, are tougher to secure. Stolen bases are also a category driven by external factors such as manager and front office tendencies, so gamers can’t simply rely on a player’s stolen base success rate or their raw speed for projecting them from season to season. Jeff Zimmerman began tackling the complex topic of projecting stolen bases for RotoGraphs last month, and you can read — which I’d strongly advise — his findings on manager influence and predictive value (or lack thereof) of stolen base rate. Below, I didn’t include the likes of Trea Turner, Billy Hamilton, and Dee Gordon. You don’t need me to tell you that they’re among the elite base stealers in baseball. I did break my touted targets into three categories, though, separating them out into an upper tier, middle tier, and bargain bin sections.
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*ADP is listed next to the highlighted players and can be found here.
Upper Tier
Christian Yelich (MIL) – 60.0
Yelich was dealt as part of Miami’s off-season firesale. Most gamers will note that he greatly upgraded his home park factors moving from the Marlins to the Brewers, but his stolen-base upside also gets a huge shot in the arm. In manager Craig Counsell‘s two full seasons as manager of the Brewers, they’ve ranked first in stolen base attempts (237) in 2016 and second (169) in 2017. In Zimmerman’s linked pieces above, he tagged Counsell with the second-highest stolen base attempt percentage (SBA%) multiplier (1.42, with 1.00 being neutral) in 2017 and for 2018 adjustment with regression (1.26). Comparatively, Don Mattingly ranked 22nd in both (0.93 and 0.94, respectively).
A couple other factors working in Yelich’s favor for stealing bases in 2018 are his speed score and walk rate. Yelich’s 5.2 speed score was tied for the 35th highest out of 144 qualified hitters, per FanGraphs. Yelich also walks a lot (11.5% BB%, tied for 32nd highest in 2017), thus, he frequently ends up on first base, putting him in a good position to steal his way into scoring position. Also, while I expect Yelich will continue his trend of hitting more fly balls now that he plays his home games in a homer-friendly venue, he tied for the 17th most singles hit last year, again, putting him in prime stolen-base position on first base. Yelich stole 16 bases last year, and his career high in a season is 21 set back in 2014. I think he’ll eclipse 20 stolen bases with his new club, and I believe 25 is within reach. Last year, only 29 players stole 20 or more bases, and 14 reached or exceeded 25 stolen bases.
Byron Buxton (MIN) – 60.5
Buxton was one of the members of the 25-plus stolen base club with 29. He was also super efficient with only one caught stealing. The speedy center fielder’s efficiency is especially of note because of the club he plays on. Zimmerman saddled manager Paul Molitor with a tie for the sixth lowest 2017 SBA% multiplier (0.90) and 2018 adjustment with regression (0.92). Zimmerman’s study did reveal that the Twins ranked in the upper half of teams in SB% for average runners (defined as having a speed score of 4 to 6), and Buxton is well above average. In fact, Buxton is one of the fastest players in the game, and his speed score of 8.2 trailed only Hamilton and Gordon among qualified hitters. There are blemishes in Buxton’s profile that could hurt his overall performance and stolen base contributions, but his elite speed made him an easy selection for this piece.
Middle Tier
Lorenzo Cain (MIL) – 93.3
Cain was another acquisition of Milwaukee’s this offseason, and like Yelich, he gets a managerial boost changing clubs. Having said that, the boost isn’t as substantial with Ned Yost ranking 11th in 2017 SBA% multiplier (1.03) and 2018 adjustment with regression (1.01). Still, it’s hearty upgrade. Cain doesn’t walk as often as Yelich with a career-high 8.4% BB% last year, but Cain’s faster and ranked seventh in speed score (6.5) among qualified hitters. Cain also hit more singles than Yelich, ranking tied for sixth with 128 last year. Cain joined Buxton in the 25-plus stolen base club with 26, and he was caught stealing only two times. Cain stole 28 bases in back-to-back years in 2014 and 2015, and those years tie for his single-season high in stolen bases in The Show. He’s bested 25 stolen bases in three of the last four years with a 103-games played 2016 in which he stole 14 bases being the lone whiff. Besting 25 stolen bases is once again within the reach of Cain, and given the stolen-base tendencies of Counsell and the Brewers, a new career high for Cain could be in his sights, too.
Yoan Moncada (CHW) – 138.3
Rick Renteria sits almost exactly at neutral on Zimmerman’s Projected SBA% Manager Adjustments (BETA) table at 0.99 for 2017 SBA% multiplier and 0.98 for 2018 adjustment with regression. He doesn’t provide a boost for base-stealing opportunities, but he doesn’t hinder them, either. What could help Moncada a great deal is the Pale Hose’s high tolerance for players getting caught stealing. The White Sox had a success rate of just 69.6% last year (MLB average was 73.0%, per Baseball-Reference’s league average stolen base and caught stealing totals), and their average-speed runners ranked lowest in 4 to 6 speed score SB% (61.3%) in Zimmerman’s linked Team SB% With Speed Score from 4.0 to 6.0 (2015-2017) table.
Moncada stole only three bases in five attempts in 54 games played (231 plate appearances) for the White Sox last year, but he did steal 17 in 25 attempts in 80 games played (361 plate appearances) at the Triple-A level. His speed score of 5.3 is above average, and FanGraphs’ prospect report on his player page which was reported last year scores his current and future speed 70 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale. Moncada posted a more impressive 6.3 speed score in Triple-A last season than his mark in the Majors, and he reached at least 45 stolen bases in 2015 (49 in Single-A) and 2016 (45 in High-A and Double-A combined with zero in his eight-game cup of coffee with the Red Sox) with eye-popping speed scores (8.9 in Single-A, 8.8 in High-A, and 7.4 in Double-A). The young switch-hitter does an elite job of working walks with a 12.6% BB% for the White Sox last year and a 13.6% BB% in Triple-A. Steamer and FanGraphs’ Depth Charts project Moncada for exactly 20 stolen bases, and that total is a fair projection with some upside for more if he beats his .327 OBP projections from both.
Bargain Bin
Delino DeShields (TEX) – 243.5
We’ve now reached the speed round of the analysis in the bargain bin. DeShields has reached at least 25 stolen bases in his two seasons out of three he’s reached at least 400 plate appearances with the Rangers. He stole 25 in 121 games (492 plate appearances) in 2015 and swiped 29 in 120 games played (440 plate appearances) last season. He’s penciled in atop the Rangers depth chart, and after accruing 2.3 fWAR last year with positive values in defense and offense, DeShields looks like a good bet for an everyday gig and, with it, 25-plus stolen bases.
Mallex Smith (TB) – 367.0
The baseball world was caught off guard by the Rays designating Corey Dickerson for assignment on Saturday night, but the departure of the slugging outfielder/designated hitter opens up a clearer path to playing time for speedy Smith. He’s listed atop the Rays depth chart in left field. Smith stole 16 bases in just 81 games (282 plate appearances) for the Rays last year, and he added another 21 stolen bases in 45 games (205 plate appearances) at Triple-A Durham. The 24-year-old outfielder is a slappy-type hitter (50.3% GB% last year) who understands speed is his game, and his 8.2% BB% and .329 OBP were in line with the league averages of 8.5% and .324 in 2017, respectively, per FanGraphs. Smith’s O-Swing% and Z-Swing% were also on par with the league average. He’s basically a one-trick pony as a stolen-base target who might not hurt you in batting average or runs depending on his lineup spot, however, he’ll hurt you in homers and RBI. If you’re in need of speed in the later rounds, though, he’s a strong target.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.