We are officially in the best week of the year. Even if you haven’t watched one second of college basketball this year, nothing rivals building your bracket and the wild upsets that follow it. Now, let me tell you something you don’t know. If you are, in fact, one of those countless people who doesn’t watch college basketball until March Madness, you are not at a disadvantage. No, this is not one of those articles where I tell you that my Mom has the same odds as Brad Evans to win her bracket contest. Contrary to what some believe, it is not random luck. Today, I’ll point out some of the annual traps that can get your bracket in trouble then reveal a historically proven way to multiply your odds of winning by your bracket contest. While nothing short of a time machine would be a lock, it takes your mathematical odds of winning a 200 person contest from 0.5% up to 2.3%. That may not seem like much, it does make you four times more likely to win. Think of it this way, you are getting the equivalent of three entries for free.

That manic college basketball nut that I mentioned from your bracket contests, they have nowhere close to all of the information. In fact, if they have seen 40 games, they will likely draw incomplete conclusions that lead them to make failing decisions. This is because the eye test is often deceiving. It would be more trustworthy if they had seen closer to 4o0 games, but no one can realistically do that. Likewise, these narratives and catchy stats, or the idea that superstars often carry their teams to titles are traps. They are a mirage developed from our own selective memory and from media members looking for clicks or views. Rather, it is pure, beautiful math that consistently paints the truest picture of what is to come.