ADP Risers and Fallers in DRAFT Best Ball Leagues (Fantasy Football)

by Josh Shepardson | @BChad50 | Featured Writer
May 17, 2018

The NFL offseason is in full swing, and free agency and the NFL Draft have — predictably — impacted the ADP of a number of players. There wasn’t major movement at every position, but there were certainly numerous noteworthy risers and fallers. I first entered DRAFT ADP data for players into a spreadsheet on March 31, and I’ve updated it on April 22, May 7, and May 15. Below, present the ADP and positional rank changes for some of the bigger movers at each position. In some cases, a player’s positional rank didn’t change much or at all, yet their ADP rose or fell. In other instances, the ADP change wasn’t especially dramatic, but the player rose or fell within their position group. One error I made along the way was missing running back Nick Chubb when entering DRAFT ADP data into a spreadsheet on March 31, and I subsequently also missed him once again on the April 22 update. He was included in the ADP Draft data for May 7 and May 15, though.

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Quarterback

Risers

Name 3/31 (ADP) 4/22 5/7 5/15
Patrick Mahomes (KC) QB21 (126.6) QB20 (124) QB20 (122.9) QB20 (122.5)
Mitchell Trubisky (CHI) QB24 (159.3) QB24 (156.7) QB24 (155.2) QB24 (154.4)

 
Fallers

Name 3/31 (ADP) 4/22 5/7 5/15
Dak Prescott (DAL) QB14 (94.1) QB14 (98.4) QB14 (101.1) QB14 (102.9)
Derek Carr (OAK) QB17 (112.4) QB18 (116) QB19 (117.6) QB19 (118.7)

 
There hasn’t been a great deal of movement within the quarterback position. The top 14 have been the same from March 31 through May 15. Generally speaking, however, quarterbacks have dropped in ADP from the first tracking to the most recent update. Aaron Rodgers (QB1) has dipped from an ADP of 31.1 to 32.7, Deshaun Watson (QB2) dropped from 36.5 to 39.9, and then starting at QB3 (Russell Wilson), quarterbacks saw their ADP drop around five-to-seven spots from March 31 to May 15. There were two quarterbacks who saw their ADPs climb, though. Second-year signal callers Patrick Mahomes and Mitchell Trubisky moved up while their peers slid backwards. Back in late February when Mahomes ADP was 135.9, I highlighted him as an undervalued player in DRAFT Best Ball games, and I fully support his ADP uptick. Trubisky’s climb also makes sense as a result of the hiring of an offensive-minded head coach and the addition of weapons to work with in the passing attack (more to come on a couple of those weapons).

As for the fallers, Dak Prescott might seem like an odd inclusion. He fell only a little farther than the rest of his peers, but he essentially made a tier drop seeing his ADP gap grow between QB12, Ben Roethlisberger, and QB13, Andrew Luck, since I began tracking ADP. Derek Carr’s ADP slide isn’t as large as Prescott’s, but he’s fallen a couple spots within the position. I’m avoiding him in DRAFT leagues. As I noted when discussing Amari Cooper’s stock being down for this season back in January, Jon Gruden’s passing offenses were far from high flying. In Gruden’s last five years as a head coach, his offenses were outside the top 10 in passing yards and passing touchdowns, per Pro-Football-Reference. In an 11-year head coaching career, Gruden’s offenses have ranked in the top 10 in passing yards twice and in the top 10 in passing touchdowns four times. Add in Carr’s regression across the board last year, and I’ll look elsewhere at quarterback.

Running Back

Risers

Name 3/31 (ADP) 4/22 5/7 5/15
Derrius Guice (WAS) RB20 (42.6) RB20 (41.6) RB20 (40.3) RB19 (39.7)
Sony Michel (NE) RB25 (63) RB25 (61.2) RB24 (58.8) RB24 (57.1)
Rex Burkhead (NE) RB32 (93.1) RB32 (88.1) RB33 (86.8) RB33 (86.7)
Tarik Cohen (CHI) RB35 (101.8) RB35 (98.8) RB36 (97.1) RB37 (96.4)
Jerick McKinnon (SF) RB36 (102.7) RB33 (89.3) RB31 (82.3) RB30 (78.3)
Ronald Jones (TB) RB37 (104.4) RB37 (104.9) RB37 (97.7) RB36 (91.5)
Rashaad Penny (SEA) RB41 (111) RB39 (105.9) RB35 (95.9) RB35 (88)
Royce Freeman (DEN) N/A N/A N/A RB48 (137.7)

 
Rookie running backs rule the roost in the risers section. Among the most notable risers were Jerick McKinnon — who signed a lucrative deal to seemingly be the feature back in running back whisperer Kyle Shanahan’s offense in San Francisco — and Rashaad Penny. McKinnon’s ADP skyrocketed a whopping 24.4 picks. He and fellow riser, Tarik Cohen, were included in a late-round targets piece I penned back in late March. I remain a fan of both. Circling back to Penny, the Seahawks spent premium draft capital on him, using the 27th pick to draft the former San Diego State runner. He’ll almost certainly have every opportunity to earn the feature-back role in an offense that struggled mightily on the ground in 2017. Royce Freeman rounds out the section, and he didn’t crack the top-50 running backs in ADP the first three dates I checked in, but he bypassed fellow Bronco Devontae Booker in my most recent check in. I suspect he’ll be a helium man going forward, and he’s a great get at his current price.

Fallers

Name 3/31 (ADP) 4/22 5/7 5/15
Lamar Miller (HOU) RB24 (58.5) RB24 (60.6) RB25 (61.4) RB25 (61.5)
Duke Johnson (CLE) RB26 (69.2) RB27 (70.8) RB28 (72.1) RB28 (73.1)
Nick Chubb (CLE) Missed Missed RB29 (75.9) RB29 (78.2)
C.J. Anderson (CAR) RB30 (78.6) RB30 (81.4) RB32 (83.9) RB32 (84.1)
Chris Carson (SEA) RB33 (97.3) RB34 (97.4) RB38 (99.3) RB38 (101.5)
Bilal Powell (NYJ) RB34 (99.2) RB36 (99.2) RB41 (107.3) RB41 (108.6)
DeMarco Murray (FA) RB42 (111.6) RB43 (118.1) RB44 (121.8) RB44 (123.9)
Samaje Perine (WAS) RB44 (117.8) RB44 (121.8) RB45 (125) RB46 (128)

 
As I noted in the intro, I missed Chubb when combing over ADP data on March 31 and April 22. As you can see, though, I did add him into the spreadsheet for the last two updates, and he’s slid backwards from May 7 to May 15. Gamers seem to be gun shy investing in Cleveland’s three-headed backfield, but I’d much prefer Chubb and fellow faller Duke Johnson to their teammate, Carlos Hyde (RB20 with an ADP of 41.3). Having said that, I’ll most likely avoid the situation unless one of Chubb or Johnson slip below their current ADP or my backfield drafting plans go terribly sideways. None of the others standout as unjustly sliding, and this is a group of backs I want no part of in DRAFT Best Ball leagues this season.

Wide Receiver

Risers

Name 3/31 (ADP) 4/22 5/7 5/15
Stefon Diggs (MIN) WR18 (44.4) WR16 (43.6) WR16 (43.3) WR16 (43)
Allen Robinson (CHI) WR24 (59.1) WR21 (56.8) WR21 (55.7) WR21 (55.3)
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) WR25 (60.1) WR23 (58.2) WR22 (57.1) WR22 (56.4)
Julian Edelman (NE) WR34 (77.9) WR32 (75.9) WR32 (75) WR32 (74.6)
Chris Hogan (NE) WR41 (101.9) WR40 (99.4) WR39 (97.9) WR39 (97.3)
Pierre Garcon (SF) WR46 (113.5) WR43 (110.7) WR42 (109.5) WR42 (108.8)
Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) WR47 (114.6) WR45 (111.7) WR43 (110.7) WR43 (110.1)

 
Well would you look at that, two more players I previously touted as strong selections make the risers list. I included Emmanuel Sanders among the late-round targets I liked here, and Pierre Garcon got the nod as an undervalued player in Draft Best Ball Leagues here. Even with their cost of acquisition rising, I continue to like both quite a bit. Larry Fitzgerald is a riser who I will not be drafting. I discussed him as a player to avoid back when his ADP was 62.4 in late February, and I certainly don’t like him more now that he’s pricier to draft. Julian Edelman was also included in the last linked piece, but my stance has softened a bit on him in the wake of the Patriots trading Brandin Cooks to the Rams. Having said that, I continue to view him as a much better option in traditional season-long leagues than in best-ball formats, thus, I probably won’t have many shares of him this year. Chris Hogan, on the other hand, is a riser from the Patriots receiver corps who I do like more in this format. He’s a big-play wideout capable of blowup weeks as opposed to a steady, reliable, week-to-week performer like the aforementioned Edelman. Give me the spike-week choice over slow and steady in best-ball formats. Allen Robinson is the new No. 1 receiver in the Windy City, and there should be ample volume in new head coach Matt Nagy’s offense to support his ADP rise. Even coming off of a lost season due to injury, I view A-Rob as a top-20 receiver in DRAFT leagues. Stefon Diggs’ stock is climbing while Adam Thielen (WR11) has slipped a tiny bit. It remains to be seen who becomes the apple of new starting quarterback Kirk Cousins’ eye, but I like both, and Diggs’ ADP is fair.

Fallers

Name 3/31 (ADP) 4/22 5/7 5/15
Jarvis Landry (CLE) WR16 (42.8) WR17 (44.7) WR18 (45.7) WR18 (46.3)
Jordy Nelson (OAK) WR21 (55.2) WR24 (58.3) WR24 (60) WR24 (61.4)
Dez Bryant (FA) WR23 (58.6) WR25 (59.2) WR25 (60.8) WR26 (62.4)
Robby Anderson (NYJ) WR36 (89.7) WR38 (92.4) WR38 (93.6) WR38 (94.5)
Calvin Ridley (ATL) WR42 (104) WR42 (110.1) WR44 (110.9) WR44 (111.7)
Josh Doctson (WAS) WR43 (109.2) WR46 (112.4) WR46 (114.4) WR46 (115.7)
Dede Westbrook (JAC) WR49 (124.7) WR50 (127.8) WR52 (130) WR52 (131.7)

 
Jarvis Landry goes from the top option in Miami’s passing attack to second fiddle behind Josh Gordon in Cleveland. There are other intriguing options in the Browns offense who could challenge Landry for touches, too, and I wouldn’t advise spending a top-50 pick to make him a top-20 wide receiver selection. Jordy Nelson was horrible when Rodgers went down with injury last year, and I’m skeptical of his bounce-back ability with Carr in Oakland. Pass. Dez Bryant is a free agent who looked washed last year. He’s an easy fade. Robby Anderson’s legal issues likely played a significant role in his ADP slipping, and I discussed him as an overvalued player back in late February while those legal issues were still in the early stages. He’s since had a pair of felonies dropped from his January, 2018 incident due to insufficient evidence, and now has a new court date of July 19 for a misdemeanor count of reckless driving. He does, however, still have a trial scheduled for August 6 for a dispute at a music festival where he’s accused of pushing a cop and charged with felony resisting an officer with violence. With a potential NFL suspension still looming, I’d continue to advise against spending a top-100 pick on Anderson.

Tight End

Risers

Name 3/31 (ADP) 4/22 5/7 5/15
Jordan Reed (WAS) TE13 (109.3) TE11 (107.1) TE11 (106.2) TE11 (106)
Trey Burton (CHI) N/A TE20 (155.3) TE19 (149) TE19 (145.7)

 
My stance on avoiding Jordan Reed hasn’t changed since I wrote this. Trey Burton, on the other hand, is a nifty bargain with his new club. Burton shined when Zach Ertz was out in Week 9 against the Broncos and again in Week 14 against the Rams when Ertz was out. In those two contests, Burton posted lines of 2-41-1 and 5-71-2. He’ll have a chance to carve out a prominent role in the passing attack, and I’m bullish on his stock. He has top-10 upside at the position, and I’d gladly pop him in the TE10 to TE12 range.

Fallers

Name 3/31 (ADP) 4/22 5/7 5/15
Jack Doyle (IND) TE10 (88.9) TE10 (92.4) TE10 (94.1) TE10 (95.4)
Eric Ebron (IND) TE11 (106.4) TE13 (110) TE13 (112.7) TE13 (114.5)
Jason Witten (DAL) TE20 (156.8) TE22 (159) TE22 (162.1) TE22 (165.2)

 
The Colts signed Eric Ebron shortly after the Lions released him, and the two-headed tight end combo he’ll form with Jack Doyle has depressed the value of both. The ADP slide makes sense for each, though, I’m not opposed to selecting either as a TE2 after pick 100 — if Doyle falls a little lower than his current ADP. Jason Witten has retired to join ESPN’s Monday Night Football booth, so he shouldn’t be drafted.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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