In the interest of setting a rule of thumb, late-round players are any who have an ADP north of 100 in DRAFT Best Ball Leagues. Free agency has directly changed the fantasy outlook of two players who signed with new clubs for the 2018 season, yet a couple of others benefit from some roster changes that took place during the start of the new league year. The first player featured below, though, primarily benefits from playing for a new head coach in his sophomore season.
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Tarik Cohen (CHI – RB): 102.8
The Bears moved on from milquetoast John Fox as their head coach, and they hired offensive-minded Matt Nagy to fill the vacancy. Nagy is an understudy of Andy Reid, and after serving as Kansas City’s quarterback coach from 2013 through 2016, he took over offensive coordinator duties last year.
Furthermore, Reid forfeited some of his playcalling duties to Nagy for the final five regular-season games and one postseason contest. The Chiefs heated up down the stretch with Nagy calling the offensive shots, and their lowest scoring total during that stretch was 21 points in the Wild Card Round against the Titans.
In fairness to Nagy and the Chiefs, there’s a reasonable possibility they would have scored more in that Wild Card game if superstar tight end Travis Kelce wasn’t knocked out in the first half with a concussion. This is all a winded way of saying Nagy looks the part of a man who can breathe life into Chicago’s offense.
Cohen was underutilized under the previous coaching staff, yet he still tallied 723 yards from scrimmage and showcased his well-rounded skill-set with 87 carries, 53 receptions, and 55 returns (29 punts and 26 kickoffs). The return skills aren’t especially important, but he did take one to the house last year, which does moderately enhance his weekly ceiling. It’s his multi-faceted contributions on offense that make him an enticing weapon for Nagy to coax more out of in year two.
He’s a burner who ripped off a 4.42-second 40-yard dash at last year’s NFL Draft Combine, and that type of straight-line speed helped him rattle off a 46-yard long rush and a 70-yard long reception in 2017. Hmmm, does a burner with rushing, receiving, and return skills sound like an electric player Nagy coached in Kansas City? Predictably, many pundits expect Nagy to use Cohen as his new Tyreek Hill of sorts.
Chicago’s new head coach acknowledges there are differences between the two, but some of his quotes in Jeff Dickerson’s piece for ESPN do little to temper the comparisons. Cohen’s just the type of home-run hitter who plays well in DRAFT Best Ball formats, and having a creative head coach with a background in offense adds to the appeal of drafting him. At his ADP, there’s tons of room for a hefty ROI.
Jerick McKinnon (SF – RB): 107.3
The 49ers signed McKinnon on the first day of the new league year (March 14), and his ADP on that date was 115. As expected, his ADP has risen. Unexpectedly — at least to me — is how slowly it’s crept up. For now, he continues to qualify as a late-round target, though, I suspect he’s going much earlier in some (perhaps most) drafts now.
The former Viking has dreamy measurables, as you can see here at PlayerProfiler.com. McKinnon landed in a great spot with an offensive-minded head coach — Kyle Shanahan — and an offense that’s on the rise.
Shanahan is known for using his backs in a variety of ways, and Carlos Hyde totaled 240 carries, 88 targets, and 58 receptions as San Francisco’s lead back last year. McKinnon offers tantalizing versatility, and he joined Hyde as one of just eight players who rushed the ball at least 150 times and caught at least 50 passes last year, per Pro-Football-Reference. Pro Football Focus (PFF) graded McKinnon as the eighth best back overall last year, and Hyde ranked a pathetic 50th at the position.
The club’s new lead back looks like a clear upgrade. A 300-plus touch season is well within reach, and he has a massive ceiling. McKinnon should be drafted as a top-20 RB with upside to crack the top 10 in scoring at the position this year.
Emmanuel Sanders (DEN- WR): 115.3
Sanders is coming off of a forgettable season in which he missed four contests and totaled just 47 receptions, 555 yards receiving, and two touchdown grabs. Denver’s offense as a whole was awful, and they were tied for 26th in scoring offense (18.1 points per game). Quarterback play was a huge problem all year, and the team upgraded the position in the offseason with surprise 2017 breakout, Case Keenum.
Even with a step back this year, Keenum would provide a sizable upgrade over the motley crew of quarterbacks Denver started last year. Additionally, Sanders has demonstrated the ability to post significant numbers with mediocre or worse quarterback play.
In Sanders’ first three seasons (2014-2016) with the Broncos, he bested 75 receptions and 1,000 yards each year, and his low in touchdown receptions was five. During that three-year run, Sanders ranked eighth in targets (414), ninth in receptions (256), eighth in receiving yards (3,571), tied for 16th in touchdown receptions (20), and 11th in receiving yards per game (76.0), according to Pro-Football-Reference Play Index. Forgive Sanders for his poor play last year, and enjoy the discount this season.
Kenny Golladay (DET – WR): 137.4
Detroit spent a third-round pick on Golladay last year. He wasn’t expected to carve out a big role immediately, but he did create some buzz in his first preseason game with a 3-53-2 line against the Colts.
He then opened the regular season with an eye-opening 4-69-2 line on seven targets against the Cardinals. He was quiet in his next two games, and then he missed five games due to injury. He was eased back into action with 11 offensive snaps in Week 10, but he earned significant playing time down the stretch finishing second among Detroit’s wideouts in offensive snaps each of the last four weeks of the season.
The big (6-foot-4 and 218 pounds) receiver proved to be a big-play option averaging a whopping 17.0 yards per reception. Among receivers who totaled between 10 and 49 targets, Football Outsiders (FO) ranked him second in DYAR and tied for seventh in DVOA. In other words, he was efficient in his opportunities.
The Lions released tight end Eric Ebron. Ebron ranked third on the club in targets (86), receiving yards (574), and touchdown receptions (four), and tied for third in receptions (53). The absence of Ebron in this year’s offense opens up opportunities, and Golladay is a strong bet to soak up a fair share of those chances.
Paul Richardson (WAS – WR): 156.6
Richardson left the only team he’s played for, the Seahawks, to join the Redskins as a free agent. Washington failed to receive much production from their wideouts last year. Jamison Crowder led the way in targets (103), receptions (66), and receiving yards (789).
Crowder will undoubtedly be an essential piece of the now Alex Smith-led offense as a slot weapon, but Richardson will have a chance to outproduce Josh Doctson along the perimeter. Richardson enjoyed a career year in which he caught 44 passes for 703 yards, 16.0 yards per reception, and six touchdown grabs.
FO ranked him 23rd in DYAR out of 86 receivers who were targeted at least 50 times, and he ranked 20th in DVOA. The 25-year-old receiver has big-play ability, and the path is clearer for targets with his 2018 club than it was behind Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham in the pecking order for the Seahawks last year.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
