The new league year hasn’t even arrived yet, but you can already hop in DRAFT best-ball drafts for the 2018 NFL season. Between now and the start of the 2018 season, the DRAFT topics covered now will likely be revisited. Having said that, some of you are already looking to scratch the itch of drafting 2018 NFL DRAFT best-ball teams. I would advocate avoiding selecting the following players at this time.
* The number listed next to players is their current ADP.
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Quarterback
Andrew Luck (IND) – 89.7
Luck will have a chance to graduate from this list and join my draftable player pool, but that won’t happen until at least training camp. He missed the entire 2017 season recovering from shoulder surgery, and despite Colts general manager Chris Ballard squashing a rumor that Luck would need to undergo another shoulder surgery, Luck will carry red flags until he begins throwing and avoids any more setbacks. Luck has substantial upside if he’s able to return to pre-surgery form, but that’s a big if. Even if he returns to pre-surgery form from a physical standpoint, he’ll have significant rust to shake off after missing an entire season. Luck’s ADP falling within the top 100 is bonkers, but even at a more reasonable ADP, I’m reluctant to pull the trigger on him until he begins throwing footballs.
Running Back
Leonard Fournette (JAC) – 11.0
In Fournette’s rookie season, he ranked seventh in carries (268), eighth in rushing yards (1,040), tied for third in rushing touchdowns (nine), and 12th in yards from scrimmage (1,342). He posted those excellent numbers despite missing three games, but there’s the rub. Fournette missed three games. He battled an ankle injury that dates back to his time at LSU. Additionally, the bruising tailback wasn’t overly efficient averaging a mere 3.9 yards per carry. Football Outsiders (FO) ranked Fournette 11th in DYAR (115) out of 47 backs who rushed a minimum of 100 times, but his 17th ranking in DVOA was only slightly above average. Fournette’s volume helps offset his underwhelming efficiency, but with steady volume comes heavy punishment. After missing three games as a rookie and playing in just seven games in his final college season, it’s fair to question his ability to stay healthy. Am I saying Fournette’s undraftable if he’s available at pick 40? Of course not. With an ADP of 11.0, though, I won’t be drafting him in the realistic range of where he’ll be selected.
Lamar Miller (HOU) – 53.6
Back in the middle of January, I highlighted a handful of players whose stock was down entering 2018. Miller is the only player featured in this piece who’s a carryover from that piece. Instead of rehashing why I’m down on Miller for 2018, I’ll suggest you check out that piece here. Miller’s ADP is reflective of a feature back, but as I note in the linked article, I believe the veteran is in store for a change-of-pace or committee gig, at best, in Houston’s offense this year.
Wide Receiver
T.Y. Hilton (IND) – 38.0
Hilton being undraftable is basically directly tied to the question marks surrounding his aforementioned quarterback. Without Luck throwing him balls in 2017, Hilton posted his second-lowest marks in his career in targets (109), receptions (57), and receiving yards (966) while setting a new low in touchdown grabs (seven). If Luck trends in the right direction, Hilton will do the same.
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) – 62.4
Fitz will enter 2018 at the age of 35. Since 1997, there are 138 seasons played by wide receivers and tight ends who were 35 or older, per Pro-Football-Reference. Out of those 138 seasons, only four have resulted in 90 or more receptions, 11 have resulted in 80 or more receptions, 14 have featured 1,000-plus yards receiving, and 28 have resulted in six or more touchdown receptions. In addition to history painting a bleak picture for receivers and tight ends 35 or older, Fitz will have to adjust to playing for a new coaching staff and with a new quarterback in 2018. Furthermore, the future HOFer is coming off of his two lowest yards per reception totals (9.6 in 2016 and 10.6 in 2017) in his career the last two seasons. There’s cliff-season potential here, and I’ll let someone else draft that risk.
Julian Edelman (NE) – 78.8
Tom Brady won the MVP award in 2017, and the Patriots ranked tied for second in scoring offense (28.6 points per game), according to Pro-Football-Reference. Brady and Co. did this without Edelman. The veteran receiver missed the entire season after tearing his ACL in the third preseason game. The expectation is that the soon-to-be 32-year-old receiver will be back for training camp. I mention Edelman’s age because he’s not a spring chicken coming off of a major injury. There’s some risk he doesn’t return to pre-injury form. However, even if he manages to seamlessly return to his previous level of health, he’ll have more competition for targets and touches than when he was last healthy.
Brandin Cooks was still in New Orleans when Edelman last played in a meaningful football game, and in his first season with the Pats, Cooks led the team in targets (114) while ranking second in receptions (65), receiving yards (1,082), and touchdown receptions (seven). New England’s leader in receptions (69), receiving yards (1,084), and touchdown receptions (eight) in 2017 was Rob Gronkowski, and he played in only eight games in 2016 when Edelman set personal bests in targets (159) and receiving yards (1,106). Edelman has surpassed 1,000 yards receiving only two times in his career, and he’s caught six or more touchdowns just two times in a year, too. At his best, Edelman is a steady contributor who’s a better real-life player or traditional season-long option than a best-ball pick.
Tight End
Jordan Reed (WAS) – 110.4
Six. That’s the number of games Reed played in last year. He’s never played 16 games in a season in his five-year career, and he’s missed four or more games in four of five years. You simply can’t draft a player like that in DRAFT leagues. Making matters worse, Reed set new lows last year in yards per reception (7.8), receiving yards per game (35.2), and tied a low with 4.5 receptions per game.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
