Why Kenyan Drake Will be a BUST in 2018 (Fantasy Football)

by Mitchell Renz | @mitchellrenz365 | Featured Writer
May 20, 2018

A myriad of factors could prevent Kenyan Drake from having a solid season

There will be at least one person in every fantasy football league who overdrafts Miami Dolphins running back Kenyan Drake in 2018. The “Hype” surrounding Drake last season went from “0 to 100” real quick, which is understandable since over the last five weeks of the season Drake led the NFL in rushing yards.

1. Kenyan Drake (MIA) – 444
2. Todd Gurley (LAR) – 440
3. Kareem Hunt (KC) – 437
4. Marshawn Lynch (OAK) – 434
5. C.J. Anderson (DEN) – 422

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After a strong finish in 2017, Drake is making “Headlines this offseason, and I think the hype around Drake is “Too Much.” Drake’s stock is rising also do to the comments his head coach Adam Gase said about him this offseason.

“I think we just have a guy that’s really looking to bust out,” said Gase. It’s safe to say that Gase believes Drake will be “Successful” in 2018.

If you are a Drake truther, then you need to “Get It Together.” Drake doing what he did in the final five games of 2017 in “Back to Back seasons is why I am awake on my day off at “9AM in Dallas writing why he will be a bust in 2018.

For starters, are we sure the Dolphins are totally sold on giving Drake a full workload this season? Miami had plenty of running backs visit this offseason including veteran DeMarco Murray. The Dolphins ended up signing veteran Frank Gore who despite being 35 years old, has been productive for what seems likes “Forever.” Gore has surpassed 1,200 yards from scrimmage every year since 2005, that’s 12 straight years!

Only Lord Knows how he stays so productive year in and year out, and that consistency is a major reason why people should have “Trust Issues with Drake in 2018. Since I’m dropping some song titles in this article, if you’re curious about the top songs of 2005 (Gore’s rookie season) they were the following:

1. Mariah Carey – “We Belong Together
2. Gwen Stefani – “Hollaback Girl
3. Mario – “Let Me Love You

Just like those songs belong in 2005, Drake belongs on the bust list for 2018. The Dolphins are an absolute dumpster fire of a team right now and arguably the worst team in the NFL. Fantasy football players need to treat the Dolphins roster this season like a door with a sock on it at a hotel, simply “Do Not Disturb.”

If you’re the type of person who would knock or even worse open the door anyway, let me warn you about how terrible the Dolphins offensive line is. Last season the Dolphins running backs averaged just 0.59 yards before contact which was dead last in the NFL. To understand how bad that is, the Lions were the second worst in the league with 0.96 yards, and the league average was 1.56 yards before contact. Now consider that you could argue the offense is worse, and so is the offensive line, which probably means we can expect to see more stacked boxes.

Drake last season only saw a stacked box on 20.3 percent of his carries in 2017, and I expect that number to rise due to the defenses not respecting the Dolphins passing game. The Dolphins have a below average quarterback in Ryan Tannehill and a receiving corps of Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker, Leonte Carroo, Jakeem Grant, Mike Gesicki, and more unproven players, so it shouldn’t surprise anyone that defenses won’t respect the Dolphins. So a bad offensive line + stacked boxes = “Dreams and Nightmares,” minus the “Dreams” part.

I know Drake was great for five games last season and if you take his averages from those five games and turn them into a 16 game sample size he would have 291 carries for 1,421 yards, and six touchdowns on the ground plus 54 receptions for 480 yards. Those numbers are great, but how sure are we that for one he can duplicate those numbers and not wear down? Side note, if you own Drake in a dynasty league sell high on him with that stat (wink).

Am I the only one who noticed him look sluggish late in games last season? Drake averaged only 3.4 yards per carry (YPC) in the fourth quarter last season. Perhaps a more alarming stat that should indicate he can’t handle a heavy workload is once Drake surpassed 20 carries in a game, he averaged a sad 2.5 YPC.

If you’re in a dynasty or keeper league and this article has totally changed your mind on Drake, then good. My advice is now to trade him before your league’s trade deadline hits on “November 18.” Now I don’t want to come off as some know it all because let’s face it despite me having a Ph.D. in fantasy football, that doesn’t make me a “6 God.”

It may be “God’s Plan for Drake to finish as a solid running back this season, but it will be “Over My Dead Body.” So whether it’s “Draft Day or the night before, don’t be “Up All Night wondering if you should draft Drake in 2018. You can either “Thank Me Now or later when my advice brings you a few fantasy football “Trophies in 2018.


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Mitchell Renz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mitchell, check out all his fantasy football articles and follow him on Twitter @mitchellrenz365.

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