Hitters to Target in Deep Leagues (Fantasy Baseball)

It’s not late to turn the season around. That goes not just for fantasy managers down in the standings, but players who haven’t met preseason expectations.

Following two dismal months, two players are reminding me why I liked them this spring. Another is making the most of limited opportunities, and a debuting rookie now has the opportunity to make his mark. These hitters, all owned in under 10 percent of leagues, are worth a look in deeper formats.

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Tyler Flowers (C – ATL): 5 Percent Owned
Baseball Savant tracks expected wOBA (xwOBA), a stat that deploys exit velocity and launch angle to estimate a player’s wOBA based on each batted ball’s hit probability. Here’s the leaderboard, with a minimum of 75 plate appearances, as of Sunday:

 
Max Muncy’s ownership rate has skyrocketed to 27 percent since last week’s inclusion, and that’s still not nearly high enough. Outside of the Dodgers’s late-blooming breakout, the list is full of superstars …. and Tyler Flowers. The major problem that stifles his worth to a deep-hitter column? He has logged just 93 plate appearances in the short end of Atlanta’s bountiful catcher platoon with Kurt Suzuki, whose .346 wOBA ranks sixth among backstops with at least 150 plate appearances. If he qualified, Flowers (.375) would only trail Francisco Cervelli, who has already blasted a career-high nine homers in 49 games.

In limited time, Flowers has batted .276/.409/.434 with three homers, two more than Jonathan Lucroy. (Go ahead and drop Lucroy in any one-catcher mixed league, especially if John Ryan Murphy or Max Stassi is still available.) It’s now safe to say his .352 BABIP since joining the Braves in 2016 is a matter of skill and not pending regression, so he’ll produce a better batting average than the typical deep league’s second catcher. Although not a glowing recommendation, unless Suzuki gets hurt, Flowers is particularly useful in deep leagues where managers have the freedom, time, and roster space to mix and match.

Randal Grichuk (OF – TOR): 2 Percent Owned
I admittedly have a vested interest in seeing Randal Grichuk succeed after talking him up all preseason. It’s time to throw in the towel on that 40-homer pipe dream. Heck, I’ve all but given up on him maturing into a reliable shallow mixed-league contributor.

Yet an atrocious start has set the bar even lower for the Toronto outfielder, who has gone 10-for-25 with three doubles and three home runs in his last six games. Hit hot streak has sent the Blue Jays into a sliding rotation where Kendrys Morales and Curtis Granderson have each taken two days off in the last week. Morales (.213/.273/.350) is also having a brutal season, and Grichuk’s arm offers added value in the outfield while letting the 37-year-old Granderson face righties as the DH.

Although not a Statcast darling to the same degree as last year, Grichuk’s .335 xwOBA (as of Sunday) still hovers over his actual .283 clip. His 7.3 barrels per plate appearance rate matches that of Kris Bryant and Francisco Lindor, and he has diminished his strikeout rate from 30.1 to 25.2. If given another extended opportunity, he’d at least perform better than his abysmal .181/.262/.394 slash line, even if that merely means batting .245 instead. Maybe I’m just hoping he spares me some humiliation by slightly salvaging a bad call, but he’s still an intriguing power source.

Ketel Marte (2B/SS – ARI): 8 Percent Owned
This is another case of seeking redemption from a failed spring sleeper pick. I have dumped my deep-league Ketel Marte shares, so by the rules of fantasy baseball he had to heat up.

The Arizona middle infielder had one home run all season before going deep twice on June 1. He has sustained that hot hand, going 11-for-27 with five doubles, two triples, and three homers in nine June games. He accrued three doubles, two triples, and zero long balls in May.

A 12.5 strikeout and 88.7 contact percentage have not spared Marte from a .238 batting average. Although he has barreled the ball just six times, good things can happen when a mobile player consistently puts the ball into play. Yet despite his speed, the 24-year-old has swiped one bag in his only attempt. It’s time to give up on him materializing into a useful speed source, and last year’s 11.4 walk rate has regressed closer to his norms at 6.7 percent. Hot streak aside, I’m not as hopeful of Marte as in March, but he’s an interesting hot hand with steady playing time. He’s an OK option for mixed leagues with 15 or more teams.

Jake Bauers (1B – TB): 4 Percent Owned
How does a prospect avoid the waiver-wire frenzy that follows an arrival? Playing on the Rays helps. So does going 3-for-16 with no walks to start.

To be clear, Jake Bauers is no Ronald Acuna or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. MLB.com’s No. 55-ranked prospect entering 2018, the 22-year-old first baseman batted .276/.361/.414 throughout his minor league career. He has never tallied more than 14 homers in a single season. Before losing interest, consider his 20 stolen bases last year and 10 in 52 Triple-A games prior to last week’s promotion.

While not an elite slugger, a solid hit tool, keen batting eye, and speed equals an interesting (and atypical) deep-league corner infielder. A limited ceiling leaves plenty of tickets on his bandwagon available. Don’t expect a game-changer, but see if he can provide a nice boost in steals and OBP where applicable. He may soon have company in shortstop Willy Adames, another polished prospect who won’t send fantasy managers into a tizzy.

Greg Allen (OF – CLE): 1 Percent Owned
So, about that Melky Cabrera recommendation from four weeks ago. He’s hitting .212/.224/.308 with no homers or steals in 21 games, so maybe this is finally when he doesn’t land on his feet. Cleveland demoted the struggling Bradley Zimmer, and a returning Lonnie Chisenhall won’t be asked to play center field. Through all of their outfielder turmoil, the Indians have continually played Greg Allen.

On account of a sluggish June, the 25-year-old is hitting .241/.290/.356. Before cooling down, he batted .273 in May, and he has stolen three bases this month despite reaching base only five times. As of Sunday, his 29.4 Statcast speed score ties Lewis Brinson and Manuel Margot for 17th on MLB’s leaderboard. Like those young outfielders, the main challenge is reaching base. The switch-hitter took a step in the right direction by notching a .409 OBP in 21 Triple-A contests. He’s still unrefined at the plate, so only add Allen if stolen bases are a concern. (Another performance from Chisenhall like on Sunday, when he reached base four times, could land him the spotlight down the road.)

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