R.C. Fischer discusses deep sleeper candidate and Cowboys’ tight end Blake Jarwin in Season 3 of his Very Deep Sleeper series for FantasyPros.
This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from R.C. head to Fantasy Football Metrics.
I know, I know…Blake Jarwin’s name gets tossed around as a ‘Dallas really likes this guy’ roto-note, and soon after there’s a clever fantasy writer to come in and ‘discover’ Jarwin as a deep sleeper for fantasy. Jason Witten is gone, and this Jarwin guy’s getting some mentions…so, yadda-yadda, he’s a sleeper.
I think there’s a little more to consider here. Further complicating things, I wrote a very eloquent ‘Very Deep Sleeper’ report on one Rico Gathers last season – and then he promptly became a preseason star for two or three weeks and then an I.R.-for-the-season star halfway into the preseason. Gathers is back in 2018 and he’s still a monster, so how does Rico’s return help/hurt Jarwin’s deep sleeper possibilities?
Will the real ‘Very Deep Sleeper’ Dallas tight end, Gathers or Jarwin, please stand up? The Jarwin case to be made is two-fold:
(1) The Dallas depth chart opportunity.
(2) Answering the question of whether Jarwin has talent that matters anyway. How is this UDFA blocking tight end who barely produced stats at Oklahoma State a sleeper for fantasy?
Try the only fantasy football tool that syncs with your draft 
1) The Dallas depth chart argument
If you watched Dallas’ first couple of preseason games in 2017, you’re way more interested in Rico Gathers than Blake Jarwin for fantasy football; and you should be. Gathers is a massive human being who flashed overpowering star moments last preseason and everyone loves the story of an ex-college hoops great turned NFL tight end project. If I had to bet my fantasy nickel, I bet it on Gathers for the upside.
Here’s the problem…the Dallas Cowboys coaching staff seems to be betting their nickel on Jarwin. They also don’t seem to want to share a nickel with Gathers.
I’ve seen, heard, or read interviews the last two months with Dallas management, in the form of Stephen Jones, Jason Garrett, and most importantly, best talent evaluator in football (for my nickel), Will McClay. Every one of their discussions has the same general theme (my plain talk interpretation) – Rico Gathers is a freak, but he doesn’t know how to play tight end well in the NFL. He’s a work in progress, and he may not make the 53-man roster. Even Gathers himself gave an interview hinting he’s showcasing his skills for Dallas or any other teams, almost resigned to the fact that he’s more ‘out’ than ‘in’ right now.
On the other hand, the Dallas trio has the same message on Jarwin – Don’t sleep on him. We’re comfortable with him in Witten’s place. He’s kinda like our Travis Kelce. The words ‘Travis’ and ‘Kelce’ were used, and that made you perk up. We’ll come back to this comparison.
All positives were spoken on Jarwin and mostly all cautious statements were on Gathers from management. The Dallas starting tight end Week 1 of 2018 will either be Jarwin, Gathers, or rookie Dalton Schultz. It won’t be the unexciting rookie, Schultz. Jarwin is running more as the 1st-team guy this spring/summer.
Unless Dallas makes some move for a tight end – Blake Jarwin is starting Week 1 this season. He makes sense because he has more football experience and he is a hell of a blocker, so he has the obvious NFL advantage to start for a run-oriented team.
Experience and blocking are not my two favorite adjectives to describe a fantasy sleeper tight end. The question is – can Jarwin put up fantasy-worthy numbers as a receiver?
2) Jarwin’s talent argument
He played for three seasons at Oklahoma State, and his best season was a very dull 19 catches, 309 yards, and two TDs – as a senior in 2016 working with Mason Rudolph. Why so bland in an excellent passing game? They mostly used Jarwin as an H-back and tight end blocker and ran an air-raid offense that was moving the ball downfield with a pretty solid WR group. Jarwin as a blocker was more important to the team because they had plenty of weapons and because he’s a really good blocker.
Jarwin’s college usage reminds me a little of George Kittle. So good at blocking that his gift held him back some from becoming explored more as a receiver. Kittle had a great NFL rookie season for a guy who had 22 catches as a season-high in college.
Back when I scouted Jarwin for the 2017 NFL Draft, I noted the blocking but also remembered he had a nice little burst racing out into pass patterns; there was a spring in his step. I felt like he had more to give in the passing game, but no one seemed to care, and it was easy for me not to give it a second thought when he went undrafted.
Is Jarwin kinda Travis Kelce-like, as is being pushed by some Dallas folks? For reference, here are their pre-draft workouts results:
6′5.1″/246, 4.73 40-yd, 1.58 10-yd, 35″ vertical, 4.39 shuttle, 7.44 three-cone = Jarwin (Pro Day 2017)
6′4.7″/255, 4.61 40-yd, 1.61 10-yd, 35″ vertical, 4.42 shuttle, 7.09 three-cone = Kelce (Pro Day 2013)
Kelce tested with a faster 40-time and with a much better three-cone than Jarwin – with a big enough gap to make an analytics scout wince at a comparison. However, as I took notes for this piece, I noticed the Jarwin 1.58 time in the 10-yard dash. That’s pretty hot for a bigger tight end. You know how hot? I searched all the 6′4″+/240+ tight end prospects in our scouting database of the past decade+ of college prospects – do you know how many 6′4″+/240+ tight end prospects put up a sub-1.60 10-yard dash time in the past five years?
Just one in my database…Blake Jarwin. “Very Deep Sleeper” Luke Willson was the previous TE prospect to do it – in 2013 with a 1.53 10-yard time (one of the best in the past decade).
Like I said, Jarwin has a little spring in his step (and the measurables seem to confirm that). He pops off the line quickly, and that helps him get open fast and to separate on short timing routes. Watching his Oklahoma State tape and seeing some Dallas mini-camp video from this offseason — Jarwin moves a little like a wide receiver on his pass routes, he looks comfortable in the passing game – he went to Oklahoma State as a walk-on hoping to play wide receiver and eventually they tried to make him an offensive lineman. I guess the natural middle ground of that was his landing spot of tight end.
How much is the ‘starting tight end’ worth on Dallas for fantasy 2018? How much more is it worth if Rico Gathers is released? How much is it worth if his team doesn’t have a true #1-2 WR established? I was surprised by how well our computer models projected Jarwin for fantasy 2018, and that it was ahead of Rico Gathers — the guy who didn’t get a lot of pass-game opportunity in college is on the verge of a golden opportunity to shine with Dak Prescott in 2018.
Blake Jarwin may have wound up at the right place/depth chart at the absolute right time (Witten gone, Gathers on thin ice) and thus stumbled his way into the “Very Deep Sleeper” zone for 2018. A possible TE2 for bye week work, or, maybe, a shocking low-end TE1 on being in the right offense at the right time and playing the majority of the snaps. The bonus is that he’s a Cowboy. If Jarwin catches three passes in the first quarter of a preseason game working as the locked-in starter with Prescott, you know people will lose their minds running with the ‘sleeper’ story – giving you value to trade into the hysteria.
- Very Deep Sleeper: Luke Willson
- Very Deep Sleeper: Trent Taylor
- Very Deep Sleeper: Albert Wilson
- Very Deep Sleeper: Derek Carrier
- Very Deep Sleeper: Taylor Gabriel
Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS
Look for more of my team’s NFL Draft scouting reports, measurables, and weekly updated dynasty rookie rankings before and after the NFL Draft, right up to the beginning of the new NFL season at College Football Metrics. See our NFL/fantasy analysis all year ’round at Fantasy Football Metrics.
