We’ve now gone through both running backs and wide receivers in the “What Age Do Players Decline?” series, it’s time to cover tight ends. It’s been widely accepted that rookie tight ends do not perform, but has there been a shift, knowing that the game is constantly changing? How often do guys like Evan Engram in 2017 come along?

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If you’re new to the series, we’re here to help you figure out when to expect a drop-off in fantasy production from each position. We’re not here to tell you that a player’s body doesn’t start to fatigue once he gets past the age of maybe even 25 years old, but that doesn’t mean they don’t find their way into more fantasy points due to their experience in the game, getting better as a route-runner, blocker, etc. The only way to test this was to go through data over the last 11 years (started the process last year, hence the odd number), look at players of all ages, with just one requirement to be included at the tight end position – minimum of 25 targets in that particular season to be included. By doing that, we’re removing the players who fizzle out of the league after a few years and not letting them affect the data. After removing them, we’re left with a total of 497 individual seasons, which is more than enough of a sample size.

Upside (Top-3)

Similar to the way we did it last year, we’re going to exclude Rob Gronkowski from the sample size. We’re doing that because he’ll skew the numbers towards young tight ends, considering he’s finished as a top-five tight end in 6-of-8 seasons. He’s an outlier to everything that is the tight end position and the best of all-time, so we just wanted to remind you why he’s not included in the samples below.

Per the chart, there’s been 111 individual seasons where a tight end has seen at least 25 targets while being younger than 25 years old, but not a single one has been able to finish as a top-three fantasy option. That’s kind of crazy when you think about it, especially for a position that relies so heavily on touchdowns. To give you an idea as to just how good Gronkowski is, he accomplished this feat twice before turning 25. There are a few tight ends who won’t turn 25 by the end of this year, and they include: David Njoku, Evan Engram, O.J. Howard, and Austin Hooper. The only one being drafted near that range is Engram, who we’ve tried warning you about this offseason.

The peak percentage for tight ends (that has a good sample size) is 30 years old, as 4-of-31 tight ends who played at that age finished as top-three options, which is hard to do. The four tight ends on that list were Jimmy Graham (2016), Gary Barnidge (2015), Antonio Gates (2010), and Dallas Clark (2009). With that being such a small sample size, you should ideally look for a tight end who is in between 25-30 because there’s been just three top-three finishes after the age of 30 (two belong to Tony Gonzalez). Fortunately, Gronkowski (29), Travis Kelce (29), Zach Ertz (28), Kyle Rudolph (29), Trey Burton (27), and Jordan Reed (28) are all in this range in 2018. Those who have exceeded the age 30 threshold include: Jimmy Graham (32), Greg Olsen (33), and Delanie Walker (34).

TE1 Potential (Top-12)

This is somewhat the way I expected it to look, as the results are scattered due to touchdowns heavily-weighting the position. You also see the older tight ends become a bit more predictable once they hit the age of 30, a good sign for those who may be lacking the elite upside at this point. The tight ends who typically play into their mid-30’s are the best in the game, so it should be expected for them to hit TE1 territory. What this chart does show is that it’s not impossible for young tight ends to be fantasy relevant, as 21-of-111 tight ends under the age of 25 have finished as a TE1.

What We Learned

It’s nearly impossible for a tight end not named Tony Gonzalez (or Rob Gronkowski) to finish with top-three upside after the age of 30, so drafting one near that range essentially means you’re taking away all the potential equity in the player, a big drafting no-no. This study also says not to expect elite production out of tight ends who haven’t turned 25 years old, like Evan Engram, though his price is right in that territory. Outside of that, tight end age doesn’t matter all that much. If you find a tight end that’s slated to see 85-plus targets, there’s about an 80 percent chance that he’s going to finish as a top-12 tight end, regardless of age (Since 2009, there have been 115 tight ends who’ve seen 85-plus targets, and 90 of them have finished top-12).

More Analysis

At what age do wide receivers decline?
At what age do running backs decline? 

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.