Week 3 of the NFL season provided one of the biggest upsets in recent history, as the winless Buffalo Bills went into Minnesota and shocked the Vikings 27-6 at US Bank Stadium. Josh Allen scored two rushing touchdowns and flashed his mobility and rocket arm that made him a first-round selection in the 2018 NFL Draft.
From a kicking perspective, Allen’s monster performance left newly signed Viking placekicker Dan Bailey twiddling his thumbs on the sideline, proving once again unpredictable game scripts can kill the value of even the best fantasy kickers.
The following is a review of last week’s studs and duds, a preview of what to expect in Week 4.
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Week 3 Stud Performances from widely-available kickers
Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU) vs. New York Giants 4% ownership on Yahoo
Fairbairn scored 12 fantasy points with three made field goals and one made PAT at home against the Giants. The former UCLA Bruin was one of two projected stud kickers this week, along with Matt Prater, based on the fact that the Texans have struggled this season in red zone offense, despite moving the ball well between the 20s. Houston’s inability to score touchdowns led to three opportunities for Fairbairn, and he came through in a big way for his fantasy owners.
Cody Parkey (CHI) vs. Arizona: 2% ownership on Yahoo
Ranked well outside the top 12 on our FantasyPros ECR rankings, Parkey posted his second 11-point performance of the season with three field goals and a PAT against the Cardinals. As long as Mitchell Trubisky continues to struggle to convert drives into touchdowns, Parkey will continue to have underrated fantasy value. It is about time that the fantasy community starts taking notice.
Steven Hauschka (BUF) vs. Houston: 3% ownership on Yahoo
The surprise kicking performance of the week belongs to Steven Hauschka of Buffalo. The former Seattle Seahawk kicker made two field goals and three PATs for a Bills team that entered the contest as 16-point dogs according to Vegas. As much as I would like to buy into the Bills offense, Hauschka will continue to be a risky kicking option going forward.
Week 3 Dud Performances from heavily-owned kickers
Matt Bryant (ATL) vs. New Orleans: 96% ownership on Yahoo
High-scoring games do not always lead to fantasy points for kickers, especially if the kicker plays on an offense that does a solid job of converting drives into touchdowns. That was the case for Matt Bryant on Sunday against the Saints as the two teams combined to score 80 points at the Mercedes Benz Stadium. Bryant made all three PAT attempts, but a negative game script killed his value and burned fantasy owners.
Dan Bailey (MIN) vs. Buffalo: 66% ownership on Yahoo
I ranked Bailey lower that the ECR consensus based on what I anticipated would be a negative game script with the Vikings blowing out the Bills. A negative game script did kill Bailey’s value, but it was a negative game script on the opposite extreme, as the Bills punched Minnesota in the mouth and Bailey finished with zero points.
Kicker Rankings
| Rank | ECR | Name | TEAM | Opponent | Spread | O/U | OPP RZ D | RZ EFF* | OFF RNK | K Score** | Weather |
| 1 | 1 | Stephen Gostkowski | NE | vs. MIA | -7.5 | 48 | 3 | 19 | 25 | 47 | 62F, 8 MPH wind |
| 2 | 2 | Justin Tucker | BAL | at PIT | 3 | 48.5 | 19 | 31 | 13 | 63 | 61F, 13% rain, light wind |
| 3 | 12 | Matt Prater | DET | at DAL | 3 | 44 | 15 | 0 | 9 | 24 | Dome |
| 4 | 3 | Harrison Butker | KC | at DEN | -5 | 55 | 22 | 30 | 7 | 59 | 75F, 7 MPH Wind |
| 5 | 4 | Matt Bryant | ATL | vs. CIN | -5 | 48 | 27 | 21 | 11 | 59 | Dome |
| 6 | 5 | Wil Lutz | NO | at NYG | -3 | 50 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 37 | 66F, 7 MPH wind |
| 7 | 21 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | at IND | 1 | 47.5 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 23 | Dome |
| 8 | 17 | Sam Ficken | LAR | vs. MIN | -7 | 47 | 4 | 18 | 3 | 25 | 80F, light wind |
| 9 | 20 | Ryan Succop | TEN | vs. PHI | 3 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 29 | 35 | 80F, light wind |
| 10 | 6 | Mason Crosby | GB | vs. BUF | -10 | 44.5 | 31 | 3 | 18 | 52 | 76F, 8% rain, 8 MPH wind |
| 11 | 7 | Jake Elliott | PHI | at TEN | -3 | 42 | 1 | 23 | 19 | 43 | 80F, light wind |
| 12 | 8 | Caleb Sturgis | LAC | vs. SF | -9 | 47 | 20 | 22 | 5 | 47 | 75F, 7 MPH Wind |
| 13 | 10 | Adam Vinatieri | IND | vs. HOU | -1 | 47.5 | 21 | 10 | 28 | 59 | Dome |
| 14 | 11 | Brandon McManus | DEN | vs. KC | 5 | 55 | 29 | 11 | 11 | 51 | 75F, 7 MPH Wind |
| 15 | 26 | Jason Myers | NYJ | at JAC | -9 | 38 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 25 | 87F, 15% rain, 10 MPH Wind |
| 16 | 13 | Josh Lambo | JAC | vs. NYJ | 9 | 38 | 14 | 17 | 20 | 51 | 87F, 15% rain, 10 MPH Wind |
| 17 | 14 | Dan Bailey | MIN | at LAR | 7 | 47 | 9 | 20 | 14 | 43 | 80F, light wind |
| 18 | 15 | Robbie Gould | SF | at LAC | 9 | 47 | 26 | 6 | 17 | 49 | 75F, 7 MPH Wind |
| 19 | 16 | Cody Parkey | CHI | vs. TB | -2 | 48 | 30 | 5 | 26 | 61 | 58F, 9MPH wind |
| 20 | 9 | Chris Boswell | PIT | vs. BAL | -3 | 48.5 | 13 | 29 | 2 | 44 | 61F, 13% rain, light wind |
| 21 | 28 | Jason Sanders | MIA | at NE | 7 | 48 | 8 | 8 | 23 | 39 | 62F, 8 MPH wind |
| 22 | 18 | Randy Bullock | CIN | at ATL | 5 | 48 | 28 | 28 | 16 | 72 | Dome |
| 23 | 19 | Aldrick Rosas | NYG | vs. NO | 3 | 50 | 25 | 13 | 24 | 62 | 66F, 7 MPH wind |
| 24 | 24 | Chandler Catanzaro | TB | at CHI | 2 | 48.5 | 24 | 14 | 1 | 39 | 58F, 9MPH wind |
| 25 | 23 | Mike Nugent | OAK | vs. CLE | -2 | 44 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 32 | 76, 9 MPH Wind |
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank second in red zone efficiency; therefore Justin Tucker has a RZ EFF score of 31. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play Week 4.
Ryan Succop (TEN) vs. Philadelphia
With at least eight fantasy points in all three games, Ryan Succop has been a solid fantasy option this season and enters Week 4 tied with Matt Prater for the fourth-most points overall, behind Mason Crosby, Robbie Gould, and Justin Tucker. For some reason, the fantasy community is not buying into Succop this week as he is ranked as the No. 20 kicker based on ECR. The Titans are second to last in red zone efficiency, and the Eagles are one of the best at keeping teams out of the end zone. As long as the Titans offense can move the ball between the 20s, Succop should have a top-10 day.
Sam Ficken (LAR) vs. Minnesota
The financial planner pulled out of the office to kick field goals for the injured Greg Zuerlein disappointed owners last week with just four fantasy points on four PATs. Owning a kicker on robust and efficient offenses like the Rams is usually a letdown, as that kicker typically is left with PATs and not field goals. Look for Ficken to turn things around this week as the Rams play host to a Vikings team that will look to rebound from an embarrassing loss to Buffalo. The Vikings still own the fourth-best red zone defense and offenses can struggle on short weeks playing on Thursday night.
Kscore Prediction Review
Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Matt Prater (DET) vs. New England
ECR Rank: 11 / My Rank: 5
Week 3 Finish: Kicker #2
Prater is the beneficiary of a Lions offense that is the worst in the league in red zone efficiency. Although he can be wild at times, the fact that he plays half his games in a dome and plays on a team with a below average red zone quarterback and a questionable play calling OC makes Prater a fantasy stud. In hindsight, I should have ranked him as a top-3 pay.
Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU) vs. NY Giants
ECR Rank: 17 / My Rank: 7
Week 3 Finish: Kicker #3
Like Prater, Fairbairn has the benefit of playing half of his games in a dome for a team that moves the ball well on offense but struggles to turn drives into touchdowns. The former UCLA Bruin benefitted in these factors to the tune of three field goals and one extra point for 12 fantasy points on the day.
Waiver Wired
Aldrick Rosas (NYG) vs. New Orleans: 2% ownership on Yahoo
Don’t let the disappointing game that Matt Bryant posted vs. New Orleans keep you away from streaming Rosas this week at home against the Saints. The Giants offense looked better last week but still ranks 20th in red zone efficiency on the season, and the Saints defense has allowed the second-most yards on the season.
Other players to consider:
- Ryan Succop (TEN): 18% ownership on Yahoo
- Cody Parkey (CHI): 2% ownership on Yahoo
- Randy Bullock (CIN): 14% ownership on Yahoo
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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFtoday_Andy.
