Last year, I began posting my tier visualizations on a weekly basis (Tuesday nights) as a quick tool for people to look at the consensus projections in an easily digestible way. This year, I’m going to build on that by publishing an accompanying article on Thursdays with notes on the visualizations. I haven’t nailed down an exact format yet, so it will be a work in progress, but I’ll keep it concise and relevant. As the season moves on I’ll comment on risers and fallers certainly, but for the first week of the season, I want to point out some of the key things I’ll be watching in order to adjust for Week 2.
Before I get into the RB and WR tier visualization notes for Week 1, I’ll highlight a benefit of my fantasy points (y-axis) vs total touches (x-axis) layout. Below, you can see a variation of my visualization where I’ve colored the data points by touchdown dependency (projected touchdown percent chance divided by total fantasy point projection) rather than tier as usual. Red means highly TD-dependent, with blue on the other end of the spectrum.
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In general, within a tier, the furthest left players have explosive upside as they are gaining their points on fewer touches than the players on the right side of the tier. The players furthest to the right within a tier, on the other hand, are going to see more volume and will be more predictable. For example, compare Doug Baldwin to Chris Hogan. Baldwin is less reliant on the impact play. When I’m thinking about roster construction in redraft leagues on a weekly basis, if I’m the dog, I’ll lean towards players with upside. If I’m the favorite, I’ll lean towards the high-volume player with a high floor.
Now let’s take a look at this week’s RB tiers…
Alright, alright. We made it! Here’s a look at Week 1 RB tiers using @FantasyPros consensus projections. Notice the RB3s are fairly clumped due to uncertainty, timeshares, etc. Will post the WRs later this afternoon. pic.twitter.com/Mq4wq5nYuI
– David McDougald (@DavidMcDou) September 4, 2018
Notes on the RB tiers:
- With Mark Ingram out, Alvin Kamara is projected as a truly elite RB. For the next four weeks, he should be treated as such. If he performs at a high level, it’ll be interesting to see how the Saints handle Ingram’s return in Week 5.
- Clearly, the Le’Veon Bell situation impacts where Bell and James Conner are ranked. If Bell is out, I don’t have Conner as a direct replacement but more in line with the yellow tier of Freeman, Mixon, and McCoy.
- As I wrote about in the introduction, the purple tier is a great example of impact play potential (Burkhead) vs. high workload with average efficiency (Miller, Howard, Collins).
- One of the most interesting usage ratios I’ll be monitoring is Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis in Tennessee. I prefer Lewis to Henry in most formats despite Henry’s early-down usage.
- The RB3s (light blue) are tightly grouped together but there are two archetypes represented here. The first is the third-down back (White, Montgomery, Cohen). This group’s projections should remain fairly similar in coming weeks. The second archetype is the potential workhorse with an undefined role, we’ll have to monitor these more closely. This group includes Lynch, Hyde, and Kerryon Johnson who could see expanded roles (and projections) in coming weeks.
Next, let’s take a look at this week’s WR tiers…
And here’s a look at Week 1 WR tiers using @FantasyPros consensus projections. @AB84 is such a savage that he messes up the scale. I’ll reply to this tweet with a graph filtering out the top three for better viewing. pic.twitter.com/XnBPB68B6Q
– David McDougald (@DavidMcDou) September 4, 2018
Notes on the WR tiers:
- Michael Thomas has some fantastic matchups in Weeks 1-5 as reflected in this week’s projection. Things get much tougher in Weeks 7-13, and I’ll be looking to trade him after a hot start early if the value is there.
- At the WR position, the usage rate of Diggs and Thielen is interesting with Cousins being new to town. I suspect that the target share will shift in favor of Diggs as the season progresses. This week’s game will give some insight into this dynamic.
- Odell Beckham Jr. is coming off injury and has a brutal matchup against the Jags. Don’t expect to see him projected this low in future weeks.
- Both Larry Fitzgerald and Jarvis Landry are annual target hogs. Can they sustain that rate with new quarterbacks? I suspect they can, but it’s worth noting the uncertainty.
- The Rams added Cooks in the offseason and we don’t know how the target shares in Los Angeles will shake out. It’s hard to project Cooks, Woods, or Kupp accurately until we get a better picture.
- Lastly, I’m expecting Emmanuel Sanders to equal or outperform Demaryius Thomas this year. Against the weakened Seattle defense, we’ll get a chance to see how Case Keenum utilizes his new weapons.
Until next week, follow me on Twitter @DavidMcDou for the Tuesday tier visualization release and check back in next Thursday on FantasyPros for the Week 2 notes. Good luck!
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David McDougald is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive and follow him @DavidMcDou.
