Dynasty Risers and Fallers: Week 6 (Fantasy Football)

by Bruce Matson | @MetricScout
Oct 15, 2018

Adam Thielen’s dynasty league value is arguably the highest it has ever been

Bruce Matson discusses which players have seen their dynasty value rise or fall in Week 6. 

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Bruce, head to Dynasty League Football.

The dynasty value for some of these players yo-yos up and down during the regular season until their value stabilizes in the offseason. Unlike DFS and redraft, dynasty is a marathon and not a sprint. There’s a clear-cut advantage if you can predict future market values. By analyzing these players on a week-to-week basis, we can capitalize on any inefficiencies in the current market.

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Risers

Alshon Jeffery (WR – PHI)
After missing the first three games of the season due to recovering from a shoulder injury, Jeffery is finally heating up. He caught eight of his 12 targets for 74 yards and two touchdowns against a suspect Giants defense. This game served as a reminder that he can still play at a high level and has the potential to drive results for your fantasy teams.

We can’t get too carried away with his recent success, because he’s one of the older receivers in the league and that’s going to roll into his dynasty value. If anything, Jeffery can still yield borderline WR1 production any given week for the short term.

He might be a cheap buy for contending teams. At the same time, he is a player you must sell if your team is already out of the running for the playoffs. Jeffery has enough firepower to help you make a run for the playoffs. He also commands enough trade value to help you rebuild your dynasty team. He’s a liquidatable asset who appeals to teams looking to make a championship run.

Adam Thielen (WR – MIN)
After another big game where he caught 11 passes for 123 yards and one touchdown, Thielen is making his case that he’s one of the top wide receivers to own in fantasy. He has at least 100 yards in each of his games this season. He’s on pace for an astronomical 155 catches for 1,899 yards and 11 touchdowns. If he continues this pace, then his ADP will climb the leaderboard next offseason.

We are witnessing an amazing season-long performance here with Thielen which could cause him to flirt with the first-round range in startup drafts. I see him settling in the mid-second round, which is still a solid increase in value considering he currently has a dynasty ADP of 24.25.

Kirk Cousins is fueling his fantasy production, and this should continue for at least the next few years. This seems like a match made in heaven. I would only sell him if your dynasty team is currently going through a massive rebuild. He’s 28 years old which means his value isn’t age insulated. A devasting injury or a bad season could cause his trade value to bottom out. On top of that, once your team is finally built to compete, he will be over 30 years old.

The buying window for Thielen is over, and his price tag should go through the roof. You can either sell while the stock his hot or hold onto him and enjoy the ride.

Tyrell Williams (WR – LAC)
Williams came back from the dead to catch three passes for 118 yards and two touchdowns. He snatched a 45-yard touchdown reception while being tripled covered by three Browns defenders in the second quarter. A few minutes later in the same quarter, he scored again on another 29-yard touchdown reception from Philip Rivers. Injuries played a major part in why he had a slow start to the season. After this game, it’s quite apparent that his issues are cleared up, and he’s ready to be a consistent fantasy producer.

His value isn’t going to drastically increase from this game. However, his performance was a nudge in the shoulder, telling you not to forget about him. It’s hard to predict which Chargers receiver is going to blow up the box score, but with Williams currently in the mix, it’s going to be hard to leave him on the waiver wire.

Of course, pick him up if he’s on the waiver wire. He’s also going to be a cheap acquisition via trade. A simple third- or fourth-round rookie pick should get the job done.

Fallers

Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – NYG)
Eight months from now, Beckham will still be one of the most valuable wide receivers in dynasty. However, due to the Giants’ offensive woes, he may not be regarded as the top wide receiver to own. The resurgence of the running back position and the increased value of other wide receivers will dilute some of his value.

Eli Manning and a poor offensive line can be blamed for Beckham’s downward trend. The offense can’t get rolling, and it’s affecting his bottom line in the stat column. It’s going to be very concerning if this continues because a lot of people will start doubting his long-term player value.

His value in dynasty may not drop enough to make him an instant buy in dynasty, though. According to DLF’s ADP, he’s still being drafting within the top three picks. The wheels will have to come off for him to fall outside the top 10, which means he’s still going to be a highly sought-after asset. With that being said, I would still kick the tires to see if I could get him at a slight discount. He will be 26 years old in November and still has plenty of years to play in his career. Don’t let recency bias affect your feelings toward Beckham. He’s still one of the top receivers in the league.

T.Y. Hilton (WR – IND)
With a hamstring injury holding him back, Hilton didn’t suit up for the second straight week against the New York Jets. That means he is not producing for your fantasy teams and quite possibly leaving a bitter taste in the mouths of many fantasy owners.

Age is starting to be a concern, considering he turns 29 years old next month. His dynasty value is no longer age insulated, meaning all it takes is a devastating injury or another adverse event to cause his dynasty value to bottom out.

There are a lot of young wide receivers who are making waves in the league, and it’s a matter of time before a lot of these players usurp him in the rankings. Even though he’s going to be producing on the field, his market value is going to start to depreciate. Six months from now he will be considered a decent discount compared to his current cost.

Hilton is a sell for me right now. If I can get a decent asset for him in return, then I will gladly pull the trigger on the trade. When his value starts to drop and stabilizes at a certain price point, then I’m going to try and trade for him at a reduced rate. Trading is all about timing, and we have to be very diligent with Hilton’s current situation.

Royce Freeman (RB – DEN)
All season long Freeman has been losing touches to Phillip Lindsay, and it’s been limiting his production. He has rushed for 272 yards and three touchdowns in six games, making him useless in fantasy. It wasn’t long ago that he was touted as one of the top running back prospects in this year’s class and was considered a can’t miss pick by many draft analysts. Fast forward to now, and he’s being out-touched by an undrafted free agent from the same draft class. Nobody saw this coming.

This is going to cause a lot of doubt to ensue in a lot of fantasy owner’s heads, which will allow you to buy him on the cheap in some of your leagues. His believers will hold him tight, but there will be some dynasty owners who will be willing to let go of him for a second-round rookie pick. If you were a fan of him during the draft process, then I would suggest you kick the tires to see if you can get him at a discount.

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