Fantasy Football is a game of inches. It’s about stashing the right up-and-coming running backs. It’s about figuring out which WR3 has the best matchup. It’s about streaming the right defense. Sometimes, it’s about knowing the quirks of your platform and league settings. A fact worth knowing, if you play on ESPN, is that when you drop a player from your active lineup to pick up a player at the same position, the added player goes to your bench – you have to add them to your active lineup yourself. My younger brother, Sam, sharp fantasy football player that he is, won the Houston Texans D/ST on waivers. That turned out great – they were the #1 defense this week! I think you know where I’m going with this. He left the Texans on his bench, and lost a match that he would otherwise have won. The devil is in the details with fantasy football. (And if you hate that, use Auto-Pilot.)
How About Some Ranks?
This is a good week for streaming because one of the offenses we really want to target (Buffalo) is playing a defense that’s probably available in your league (Indianapolis). With Denver also widely available, you probably won’t have to dip into the second tier.
| Rank | Team | Opponent | O/U | Spread | PA | Sack | Turnovers | TD | FPTS | Own% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||||
| 1 | JAC | HOU | 42.5 | -4.5 | 19 | 2.77 | 1.56 | 0.17 | 7.83 | 99% |
| 2 | IND | BUF | 42.5 | -6.5 | 18 | 2.86 | 1.39 | 0.14 | 7.60 | 8% |
| 3 | DEN | @ARI | 40.5 | -2.5 | 19 | 2.33 | 1.40 | 0.18 | 7.16 | 46% |
| 4 | LAC | TEN | 45.5 | -6.5 | 19.5 | 2.33 | 1.45 | 0.16 | 7.00 | 74% |
| 5 | LAR | @SF | 52 | -10 | 21 | 2.45 | 1.50 | 0.17 | 6.99 | 99% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||||
| 6 | ARI | DEN | 40.5 | 2.5 | 21.5 | 2.55 | 1.63 | 0.13 | 6.99 | 14% |
| 7 | TB | CLE | 49.5 | -3 | 23.25 | 2.96 | 1.59 | 0.12 | 6.95 | 1% |
| 8 | WAS | DAL | 41.5 | -1.5 | 20 | 2.54 | 1.35 | 0.13 | 6.70 | 6% |
| 9 | DET | @MIA | 47* | -1 | 23 | 2.04 | 1.53 | 0.19 | 6.37 | 6% |
| 10 | MIN | @NYJ | 47 | -3 | 22 | 2.24 | 1.37 | 0.17 | 6.31 | 97% |
| 11 | DAL | @WAS | 41.5 | 1.5 | 21.5 | 2.30 | 1.34 | 0.15 | 6.30 | 23% |
| 12 | PHI | CAR | 45.5 | -4.5 | 20.5 | 2.14 | 1.31 | 0.16 | 6.30 | 93% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||||
| 13 | MIA | DET | 47* | 1 | 24 | 2.46 | 1.41 | 0.11 | 5.94 | 13% |
| 14 | ATL | NYG | 54.5 | -6 | 24.25 | 2.52 | 1.40 | 0.10 | 5.83 | 19% |
| 15 | BUF | @IND | 42.5 | 6.5 | 24.5 | 2.51 | 1.24 | 0.16 | 5.82 | 3% |
| 16 | HOU | @JAC | 42.5 | 4.5 | 23.5 | 2.07 | 1.39 | 0.15 | 5.81 | 95% |
| 17 | NE | @CHI | 49.5 | -3.5 | 23 | 2.35 | 1.21 | 0.12 | 5.68 | 48% |
| 18 | CAR | @PHI | 45.5 | 4.5 | 25 | 2.26 | 1.35 | 0.14 | 5.61 | 58% |
| 19 | CLE | @TB | 49.5 | 3 | 26.25 | 2.27 | 1.54 | 0.11 | 5.60 | 32% |
| 20 | BAL | NO | 49.5 | -2.5 | 23.5 | 1.95 | 1.34 | 0.14 | 5.53 | 87% |
| 21 | NYJ | MIN | 47 | 3 | 25 | 2.34 | 1.28 | 0.11 | 5.38 | 32% |
| 22 | KC | CIN | 58.5 | -6 | 26.25 | 2.27 | 1.35 | 0.12 | 5.25 | 14% |
| 23 | CHI | NE | 49.5 | 3.5 | 26.5 | 1.80 | 1.31 | 0.12 | 4.67 | 96% |
| 24 | NO | @BAL | 49.5 | 2.5 | 26 | 2.07 | 1.16 | 0.10 | 4.65 | 24% |
| 25 | TEN | @LAC | 45.5 | 6.5 | 26 | 1.68 | 1.18 | 0.12 | 4.40 | 42% |
| 26 | NYG | @ATL | 54.5 | 6 | 30.25 | 2.40 | 1.16 | 0.09 | 3.94 | 4% |
| 27 | SF | LAR | 52 | 10 | 31 | 2.21 | 1.24 | 0.07 | 3.62 | 5% |
| 28 | CIN | @KC | 58.5 | 6 | 32.25 | 1.91 | 1.19 | 0.11 | 3.15 | 19% |
*There is no public line yet for DET@MIA, due to the uncertainty about whether or not Ryan Tannehill will play. The spread is real, but I guessed the line at 47 based on both teams’ previous games. I think it’s unlikely that Tannehill plays, and would expect the total to move up if he does. I’ll update this article if I end up being wrong enough that either team chances Tiers.
Tell Me About Your Top Picks
- JAC vs HOU: a) A great defense, b) favored, c) at home, d) against an interception-prone quarterback and e) a team that has only exceeded 22 points once in six games. Sign me up.
- IND vs BUF: The bills have averaged 9 points per game. They got shut out by a Packers defense that just gave 30 points to C.J. Beathard. The Colts are owned in 6% of leagues, and they get the Nathan Peterman experience this week.
- DEN @ ARI: The Denver defense is overrated, but these things have limits. The Cardinals have only exceeded 17 points once, and they have the worst play calling in the league.
- LAC vs TEN: Marcus Mariota got sacked 11 times last week – 11 times! That feat isn’t likely to repeat, but the Chargers will be happy to oblige if that’s the game the Titans are playing.
- LAR @ SF: C.J. Beathard and the 49ers put up a surprising fight in Green Bay, but the Packers D/ST was still fine thanks to three turnovers and two sacks. The Rams are better than the Packers on both sides of the ball, and the 49ers are second in the league in fumbles per game. If you have the Rams, you’ve probably been riding them all season – there’s no reason to hesitate this week.
- ARI vs DEN: This game has the lowest over-under of the week at just 40.5. That fact combines with a narrow spread of less than a field goal to mean both sides are good defensive choices this week. Case Keenum has been horrible so far – the biggest cheer of the game in Denver’s matchup against the Rams was when backup quarterback Chad Kelly came in for a kneel down.
- TB vs CLE: Despite riding on the hopes and dreams of just about everyone, the Baker Mayfield-led Browns have been extremely friendly to opposing defenses. This is an excellent matchup, but Tampa Bay isn’t the greatest defense, so this is more of a boom-bust play. The Browns could blow up like they did against the Raiders, but they also gave the Raiders a defensive touchdown, so they still had a great fantasy day.
- WAS vs DAL: At the 2nd-lowest over-under of the week at just 41.5, this is another game where both sides should be decent fantasy options. As the team at home and with the slightly higher sacks projection, Washington gets the edge here.
- DET @ MIA: I am assuming that Tannehill doesn’t play, and we get Brock Osweiler again. He was brilliant last week and conspired with Albert Wilson to win some people a lot of money in DFS. The problem with veteran backup quarterbacks is consistency. We saw three quarters of brilliance from C.J. Beathard on Monday night until he threw away the game with an interception. We saw Ryan Fitzpatrick do it for the better part of a month. Brilliance is always on the table for guys like this, but it’s not the expected outcome. The risk is worth the reward for starting your defense against a guy who isn’t one of the 32 best quarterbacks in the NFL.
- MIN @ NYJ: The Jets have played well over the past two weeks, but that’s been against some bad defenses in the Colts and Broncos. Before that, they hadn’t exceeded 17 points in four games. They should return to (poor) form against a solid Minnesota defense.
- DAL @ WAS: This is the worse side of this matchup, but Dallas should be fine in a pinch with an implied point total against of just 21.5.
- PHI vs CAR: This is another rank that’s mostly driven by the Vegas numbers, with the Panthers implied for just 20.5 points. The Panthers have exceeded that number 3 out of 5 times this year, but against a weak lineup of Atlanta, Cincinnati and the Giants. The Eagles should keep them in check.
Jacob Herlin is a Senior Data Analyst for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, follow him @jacoblawherlin.
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