There is a six-pack of NBA games on the DraftKings main slate Saturday night which excludes the late afternoon matchup between the Jazz and Pelicans. The night slate has two games with a Vegas total over 225 points including the matchups between the Lakers/Hornets and Clippers/Thunder. There is not a lot of deep value on the slate at the moment but that can always change as we approach tipoff. So, get that holiday shopping finished so you can play some NBA DFS and drink some eggnog while you watch the Saturday night NBA action.
Note that some of the stats referenced in this article are my custom DvP calculations that combine both season and last five games data along with blending similar positions production allowed together.
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One Stud
LeBron James (SF/PF – LAL): $10,700 @ CHA
Let’s see, the Lakers play in the game with the highest Vegas total on the slate in a matchup they are only favored by a couple of points against a team that is on the second game of a back-to-back set. Sounds like the perfect spot for LeBron to go off as my one stud of the night. James has scored at least 28 points in four of his last five games while exceeding 60 DraftKings points in three of those efforts. The Hornets are decent against SFs this season, but matchups don’t matter much when you are referring to the studs like James.
There is a six-pack of NBA games on the DraftKings main slate Saturday night which excludes the late afternoon matchup between the Jazz and Pelicans. The night slate has two games with a Vegas total over 225 points including the matchups between the Lakers/Hornets and Clippers/Thunder. There is not a lot of deep value on the slate at the moment but that can always change as we approach tipoff. So, get that holiday shopping finished so you can play some NBA DFS and drink some eggnog while you watch the Saturday night NBA action.
Note that some of the stats referenced in this article are my custom DvP calculations that combine both season and last five games data along with blending similar positions production allowed together.
Create Optimal DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
One Stud
LeBron James (SF/PF – LAL): $10,700 @ CHA
Let’s see, the Lakers play in the game with the highest Vegas total on the slate in a matchup they are only favored by a couple of points against a team that is on the second game of a back-to-back set. Sounds like the perfect spot for LeBron to go off as my one stud of the night. James has scored at least 28 points in four of his last five games while exceeding 60 DraftKings points in three of those efforts. The Hornets are decent against SFs this season, but matchups don’t matter much when you are referring to the studs like James.
Core Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (PF/C – SA): $7,900 vs. CHI
Aldridge has been fairly quiet from a DFS perspective compared to his salary recently as he has failed to top 40 DK points in six straight outings. However, he did put up 27 points in his most recent game which could be a sign of him breaking out of his recent slump. The Spurs will be at home in a plus matchup for big men against the Bulls who have allowed top five production in rebounds to opposing big men this year.
T.J. Warren (SF/PF – PHO): $6,600 vs. MIN
The use of Suns players on Saturday night depends on who ends up suiting up for their matchup against the Timberwolves. Trevor Ariza has already been ruled out as the Suns look to deal him but Devin Booker has a chance to return to the court, while Josh Jackson is also questionable (more on him later). With so many iffy options it seems like Warren should be a strong option as he is healthy and reasonably priced. He has scored at least 23 points in each of his last two games and should see increased production from his averages with a matchup against the Wolves who allow increased production in points (+9.1%), rebounds (+9.2%) and assists (+7.1%) to SFs.
Steven Adams (C – OKC): $6,500 vs. LAC
I would prioritize Adams over LaMarcus Aldridge at center for Saturday night. Adams has been solid for the Thunder with at least 20 points in four straight games including a pair of double-doubles during that stretch. He has faced the Clippers twice already this season and put up 17.5 points and 14.0 rebounds per game for 42.8 DK points per outing. The matchup against the Clippers yields increased scoring (+13.3%), rebounds (+2.7%) and blocks (+21.9%) for opposing centers.
Lonzo Ball (PG – LAL): $5,600 @ CHA
I’ve recommended a lot of forwards and centers so far, but the darn DK rules require us to play at least one PG, so let’s go with Lonzo. He plays in a matchup with a high Vegas total which should help him compile numbers while playing big minutes. Ball has reached at least 35 minutes in four of his last five games and he has put up at least 34 DK points in three of those outings. There, PG spot filled.
Value Plays
Josh Jackson (SF/PF – PHO): $5,500 vs. MIN
As I mentioned above, we’ll need to watch the status of Jackson along with other Suns players leading up to game time. However, if Booker remains out and Jackson plays then he becomes a solid option with a value price tag. While Jackson’s shot hasn’t been there the last two games shooting just 21.9 percent from the field he has still managed to average 24.5 DK points in those games which is still about 4.5 times his current salary. He should be able to get a few more shots to fall in a favorable matchup against the Timberwolves.
Jeremy Lamb (SG/SF – CHA): $5,300 vs. LAL
If you’re looking for a steady cash game option that has a little bit of upside then Lamb is what you are looking for at SG. Lamb has produced at least 25 DK points in eight of his last 10 games while typically playing 30-plus minutes for the Hornets. His matchup with the Lakers on Saturday night could present some upside for Lamb as they have given up increased production in points (+14.5), rebounds (+8.5) and assists (+11.9%) to SGs.
Kris Dunn (PG/SG – CHI): $5,200 @ SA
If you are looking for a riskier option to fill either of the guard slots than give Dunn a look. Dunn will be playing in just his third game back from injury but saw his minutes increase to 26 in his last game and could tack on a few more on Saturday night with Zach LaVine likely out. Dunn has the ability to stuff the stat sheet in a variety of ways and will see an increase in his usage with LaVine out. You can also take a shot on one of the cheaper Bulls guards such as Ryan Arcidiacono ($3,700) or even Cameron Payne ($3,200) if you want to roll the dice in a GPP that they see increased playing time with LaVine out.
Dario Saric (PF – MIN): $4,200 @ PHO
Finally, we get to the player that offers the best value on the slate with Saric who should have a solid floor and upside on Saturday against the Suns. Saric has played 31 minutes in back-to-back games while averaging almost 30 DK points in those outings. He should get at least that many minutes on Saturday with Taj Gibson out. The matchup is also good against the Suns who have allowed slight increases in points, assists and steals to PFs this year. Saric should be one of the first players you plug into your lineup.
Brad Richter is a correspondent at FantasyPros and a contributor at DailyOverlay and GoingFor2. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot.
