Monday starts off the week with an eight-game slate on the NBA hardwood. There are three high-priced studs to consider but it might be difficult to fit one of them in due to limited deep value options to choose. Also, with every Vegas total coming in between 214 and 222, there is not that one game to target on this slate. So, keep your eye on any injury news opening up value or consider a slightly more balanced approach to your roster construction on Monday’s slate.
Note that some of the stats referenced in this article are my custom DvP calculations that combine both season and last five games data along with blending similar positions production allowed together.
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One Stud
James Harden (PG / SG – HOU): $12,000 vs. DEN
It’s not too bad when your “off” night results in 38 points and “just” 57.75 DraftKings points but that is what Harden suffered through in his last outing. He wasn’t the highest scoring stud on the slate that night but I expect him to regain the crown on Monday’s slate. His matchup with the Nuggets is expected to be a close affair and when five times your salary is an “off” game for a high-priced stud like Harden then sign me up.
Monday starts off the week with an eight-game slate on the NBA hardwood. There are three high-priced studs to consider but it might be difficult to fit one of them in due to limited deep value options to choose. Also, with every Vegas total coming in between 214 and 222, there is not that one game to target on this slate. So, keep your eye on any injury news opening up value or consider a slightly more balanced approach to your roster construction on Monday’s slate.
Note that some of the stats referenced in this article are my custom DvP calculations that combine both season and last five games data along with blending similar positions production allowed together.
Create Optimal DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
One Stud
James Harden (PG / SG – HOU): $12,000 vs. DEN
It’s not too bad when your “off” night results in 38 points and “just” 57.75 DraftKings points but that is what Harden suffered through in his last outing. He wasn’t the highest scoring stud on the slate that night but I expect him to regain the crown on Monday’s slate. His matchup with the Nuggets is expected to be a close affair and when five times your salary is an “off” game for a high-priced stud like Harden then sign me up.
Core Plays
Nikola Jokic (C – DEN): $10,000 @ HOU
If you can’t find the salary to roster Harden, then consider a more balanced approach starting with Harden’s opponent on Monday night, Jokic. He has posted at least 52 DK points in each of his last four games while averaging 26.8 points, 11.8 rebounds and 9.0 assists not to mention 2.0 steals, 1.5 blocks and 1.8 three-pointers during that stretch. If you go the Harden route, then consider saving some DK bucks with Jusuf Nurkic or Blake Griffin in the center slot.
DeMar DeRozan (SG/SF – SA): $8,200 @ DET
DeRozan has been a little inconsistent the last few games alternating below average performances with spike games. If the trend continues then Monday’s matchup should be another one of those spike performances. While that trend doesn’t hold a lot of credibility, he will face a Pistons defense that has allowed the highest field goal percentage to SGs over their last five games. They have also allowed the most free throw attempts to the position this season and the fourth most rebounds. DeRozan has the ability to knock down shots and get to the line while contributing on the glass as he has averaged over 10 rebounds per game in his last four outings.
Aaron Gordon (SF/PF – ORL): $6,700 @ SAC
My recommendation of Gordon last Friday night didn’t pan out as I expected but I’m willing to give him another shot on Monday in a very favorable matchup against the Kings. The Kings have given up increased production in points (+6.5%), rebounds (+8.6%), assists (+15.5%) and blocks (+12.1%) to PFs this season. Gordon’s reasonable salary give him a good opportunity to not only meet but exceed five times value in this matchup.
Ricky Rubio (PG – UTH): $5,600 @ MIL
With Dante Exum ruled out for Monday’s game in Milwaukee, look for Rubio to get some extra run. The extra minutes coupled with a pace up spot for the Jazz should allow Rubio to put together a strong fantasy line. The Bucks have also allowed a slight increase in rebounds (+4.1%) and assists (+3.4%) to PGs this year.
Value Plays
Bogdan Bogdanovic (SG/SF – SAC): $5,300 vs. ORL
Bogdanovic has put up at least 25 DK points in each of his last five outings while averaging 18.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.8 steals and 2.8 three-pointers during that stretch. His salary has actually dropped for Monday’s matchup against the Magic despite his recent success which should give him a floor of at least five times his current salary. Meanwhile, the Kings/Magic tilt comes in with the highest Vegas total on the slate.
Derrick White (PG/SG – SA): $5,000 @ DET
White has posted at least 27 DK points in each of his last five games, yet his salary remains at a very reasonable $5,000 heading into Monday’s matchup with the Pistons. White has reached double-digit points in each of his last five games while averaging 16.4 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 2.2 steals per game. He draws a plus matchup against the Pistons who have allowed a small increase in production to PGs in points, rebounds, assists and steals this season.
Nemanja Bjelica (SF/PF – SAC): $4,800 vs. ORL
Much like Bogdanovic, Bjelica has been playing well recently averaging a double-double over his last three games with 14.3 points and 10.0 rebounds. He put up 21 points and eight rebounds for 39 DK points in an earlier meeting with the Magic this season and also give you more inexpensive exposure to a good game environment.
Jae Crowder (SF/PF – UTH): $4,300 @ MIL
The use of Crowder is a little bit of a gut call but I’m trying to find some deeper value with upside on Monday’s slate. Crowder played his college ball at Marquette, so it will be a homecoming for him when the Jazz visits Milwaukee on Monday night. In his last six games played in Milwaukee, Crowder is averaging 14.0 points and 4.8 rebounds while putting up 27.6 DK points per game in those outings. He should play big minutes to help defend against Giannis Antetokonmpo and company with Thabo Sefolosha out.
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Brad Richter is a correspondent at FantasyPros and a contributor at DailyOverlay. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot.
