FanDuel NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Divisional Round (Sunday)
One of Sunday’s games will be played indoors and feature the team with the highest over/under total on the slate against an opponent they smacked around earlier in the season. The other game will be played in frigid conditions. The former game is well represented below with a full four-man stack from a home favorite and three players from the opposition who could be relied on heavily in the passing attack while attempting a comeback. One key cog of the home team in the frigid conditions makes the cut, though. He’s joined by his team’s defense/special teams (D/ST) rounding things out.
Drew Brees (NO): $8,800 vs. Eagles
Brees played at an exceptionally high level this year, and as has been the case throughout most of his career, he was much better at home than on the road. In fact, Brees was damn near unstoppable at home. In seven home games this year, he averaged 321.6 passing yards per game with a 76.27% completion percentage, 133.3 quarterback rating, 11.13 adjusted yards gained per pass attempt, 21 passing touchdowns, and one interception.
He pantsed the Eagles in Week 11 in New Orleans hanging 363 passing yards and four touchdown passes on them. Football Outsiders (FO) ranked the Eagles 15th defending the pass this year, but they coughed up the ninth most FanDuel points per game to signal callers, according to Pro-Football-Reference. This is a favorable matchup for Brees. He and the Saints have the highest team over/under total on the slate at 29.5 points, per Pinnacle.
Alvin Kamara (NO): $8,600 vs. Eagles
Kamara is just the first of three stack partners with Brees. The do-it-all second-year back rushed for 71 yards on 13 carries and added a 37-yard touchdown reception in the prior meeting with the Eagles. Since the Saints’ Week 6 bye, Kamara’s bested 70 yards from scrimmage in every game he’s played and piled up 12 touchdowns. He also caught four or more passes in each of his last four games and seven of 10 after the bye.
His pass-catching exploits should come in handy — bad pun intended — this weekend. Philadelphia was tied for the second most receptions (110) allowed to backs in the regular season. FO ranked them 24th defending backs as receivers this season. I like Kamara’s odds of giving them fits.
Darren Sproles (PHI): $5,400 at Saints
The Eagles are eight-point underdogs, and Sproles is the pass-catching specialist in their backfield. He stands to benefit the most from a catch-up game script, but the Eagles would be wise to come out of the gates with Sproles as the most heavily utilized back. FO ranked the Saints third defending the run, but just 22nd defending the pass and 29th defending backs as receivers. Spinning down to Sproles as the RB2 helps free up salary for the aforementioned pricey duo of Brees and Kamara as well as some forthcoming pricey options.
Michael Thomas (NO): $8,400 vs. Eagles
Thomas is actually my favorite stack partner with Brees. Philadelphia was whooped for the fourth most FanDuel points per game allowed to wideouts this year. FO ranked them a respectable 15th defending No. 1 receivers, but they allowed the second most passes and most receiving yards per game (adjusted for opposing offense and including defensive pass interference) to them this year. They also just got thumped in the Wild Card Round by Allen Robinson (10-143-1 on 13 targets).
Julian Edelman (NE): $7,700 vs. Chargers
Edelman has been extremely consistent on New England’s inconsistent offense this year. He reached or exceeded 70 yards from scrimmage with five or more receptions in his last four games, and he scored touchdowns in three of those four games. He closed the regular season on a nine-game streak of reaching at least 60 yards from scrimmage, and he surpassed 80 yards from scrimmage in seven of those games. As New England’s trusty slot receiver, he could be in store for a high volume of quick hitters in order to keep Tom Brady upright and out of the clutches of Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa.
Nelson Agholor (PHI): $6,200 at Saints
Agholor was blanked by the Saints on two targets in Week 11, but that was with Carson Wentz playing quarterback. The fourth-year receiver has played better with Nick Foles at quarterback, and the gap was larger this year than last year. According to RotoViz’s Game-Splits App, in 11 games with Wentz this year, he had per-game averages of 5.45 targets, 3.36 receptions, 41.0 receiving yards and caught zero touchdowns. In five games with Foles, he had per-game averages of 7.4 targets, 5.4 receptions, and 58.4 receiving yards and caught four touchdowns.
Agholor ran 47.2% of his routes from the slot this year, per Player Profiler, and that should set him up to primarily see P.J. Williams. Player Profiler credited Williams with a 53.0% slot rate. Williams is the weakest of the Saints corners. New Orleans was tied for the most FanDuel points allowed to receivers this year.
Dallas Goedert (PHI): $5,600 at Saints
Zach Ertz is clearly the top tight end on the Eagles, and he’s one of the elite players at the position in the entire NFL. However, it was Goedert who caught a touchdown last week, and the rookie has carved out a role in Philadelphia’s offense even as the No. 2 tight end. He’s caught two or more passes in five straight and six of his last seven games. He was also on the field more than half of Philadelphia’s offensive snaps from Week 12 through the end of the regular season.
Ted Ginn (NO): $4,500 vs. Eagles
Ginn is laughably underpriced at the minimum salary, and the only thing that might keep his ownership rate from getting crazy is the limit of four players from the same team allowed on FanDuel rosters. The speedster’s production has been tied closely to Brees’ sizable home/road splits. In 10 road games since joining the Saints last year, Ginn has per-game averages of 4.6 targets, 3.1 receptions, 39.2 receiving yards, and 0.2 touchdowns. In 10 home games since 2017, he has per-game averages of 5.4 targets, 3.9 receptions, 60.4 receiving yards, and 0.4 touchdowns. His home splits will definitely play at the minimum salary for a running back or receiver.
New England Patriots (NE): $4,700 vs. Chargers
New England is a four-point home favorite against the visiting Chargers. For the second week in a row, the Chargers will have the unenviable task of playing in the 1:00 PM ET game, no easy task for a team coming from the Pacific time zone. Their team over/under total is only 20.5 points. New England’s defense isn’t the most exciting unit, but FO ranked them 16th overall.
Furthermore, they were tough at home. Only the Texans (20 points in Week 1), Colts (24 points in Week 5), and Chiefs (40 points in Week 6) scored 20 or more points in New England this year. In their three home games after their Week 11 bye, the Patriots held the Vikings to 10 points and 278 total yards of offense in Week 13, the Bills to 12 points and 289 total yards of offense in Week 16, and the Jets to three points and 239 total yards of offense in Week 17. They forced eight turnovers in those three games. They’ll be fresh and prepared for the visiting Chargers coming off of a bye in the Wild Card Round.