There’s no shortage of breakout starting pitcher candidates this season, and I’m going to identify eight hurlers who are currently underrated in fantasy baseball drafts.
The original format of this article intended to sweep through each draft stage (early rounds, mid-tier, late) while uncovering sleepers along the way. However, my search for sneaky-good arms yielded plenty of results in the mid-to-later rounds without much to consider in the early stanzas. That’s where the value lies, so that’s where I’ll focus my piece.
I’m not saying that you can’t find value in the top-30 pitchers, but there aren’t any situations jumping off the board when combing through the average draft position (ADP) of these arms. My strategy is to snag one or two hurlers in the top tiers, then wait for these sleeper candidates to complete my rotation.
Speaking of ADP, I’ll utilize FantasyPros’ convenient ADP Consensus to reference draft expectations of these proud sleeper candidates. Rounds are based on standard 12-team leagues and will differ as draft sizes fluctuate.
With that, let’s go ahead and dive into the good stuff!
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Mid-Late Round Sleepers (ADP 156-204)
Tyler Glasnow showed progress after moving (via trade) from Pittsburgh to Tampa Bay last August. Entrenched in the Rays’ starting rotation, he will look to build upon his impressive 10.96 K/9 and 3.47 xFIP from 2018. That screams upside if he can put it all together with a beacon of consistency. Glasnow has always carried a powerful fastball, but the development of his auxiliary pitches will make or break his numbers this season. I’m bullish on the 25-year-old, whose 166 ADP puts him near Round 14 of standard drafts.
Andrew Heaney came off Tommy John surgery to piece together a decent 2018 campaign with a 3.68 xFIP and 9.00 K/9 through 30 starts. The southpaw has a quality swing-and-miss arsenal that could inspire better numbers in 2019. Being another year removed from surgery should help the cause as well. Heaney’s ADP currently rests at 168, which is the 15th round of standard drafts. He’s a serviceable SP3 with SP2 upside who warrants consideration on draft day. Just keep in mind that an early elbow injury will keep him off of the Angels’ Opening Day roster.
I picked up Joey Lucchesi as a streamer towards the middle of last season, and he actually became a nice staple in my rotation. The 4.08 ERA won’t generate a standing ovation, but his peripheral numbers — 3.45 xFIP, 10.04 K/9, and 2.98 BB/9 — tell a better story. Pitching in the NL West with half of his games in Petco Park is a plus as well. Lucchesi’s ADP is at 199, which is the 17th round of standard drafts. He’s a value candidate in that range as a cheaper version of Eduardo Rodriguez, who holds a steeper 151 ADP.
Ross Stripling is generating a ton of buzz, but he continues to be a sleeper while hovering around an ADP of 197. The drawback comes from a floating role in the Dodgers’ rotation. However, the 29-year-old has been very serviceable when called upon, speaking from both fantasy and real-life perspectives. Stripling will begin the season as part of the rotation, but Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler will likely return somewhat soon. Keeping that in mind, I still believe the righty can piece together enough starts to warrant a draft-day selection. If something happens (injuries, struggles) to an incumbent member of the Dodgers’ rotation, Stripling’s fantasy upside will subsequently rise.
Late Round Sleepers (ADP 204-288)
Although there were plenty of bumps along the way, Tyler Skaggs put together a pretty strong 2018 campaign. His ERA held at a serviceable 4.02 with a 3.79 xFIP backing that up. The strikeout rate jumped to 9.26 K/9, which shows favorable progress. His peripheral numbers look solid for the most part, and I believe Skaggs can be a nice rotational piece considering his cheap 227 ADP. He doesn’t have a ton of upside, but the Angels’ lefty is a fine streaming candidate who could work himself into a fantasy baseball regular who warrants a full-time spot on your roster.
Kyle Gibson and Skaggs are very similar from a fantasy perspective. Neither is flashy with a ton of upside. They aren’t young prospects who generate much excitement from the general community. However, both of them have made strides in their strikeout rate while holding encouraging peripheral numbers. As for Gibson, the 8.19 K/9 still isn’t anything to write home about, but it shows a refined approach that led to an encouraging 3.62 ERA (3.91 xFIP) in 2018. In fact, Gibson has been pretty solid ever since a horrible start to 2017 that sent him to a brief minor league stint. He’s another recommendation as a confident streamer or bench filler with an ADP of 279.
Wavier Wire Sleepers (ADP 288+)
Trevor Williams was a revelation in 2018 with 14 wins accompanied by a sparkling 3.11 ERA. The 4.54 xFIP suggests regression is on the way, and his 6.64 K/9 leaves a bad taste in your mouth. In other words, don’t expect a repeat performance from the Pittsburgh righty. Still, he finds himself in the pitcher-friendly environment of PNC Park, where he was crazy-good over the last three months of 2018. You can draft him as a late-round filler in deep leagues or look to stream him off the waiver wire whenever the matchup corresponds (especially at home).
I’m patiently waiting to see if Matt Strahm will land a spot in San Diego’s starting rotation. He has quality stuff with a legitimate four-pitch arsenal that led to a 10.13 K/9 and 2.05 ERA through 41 appearances (five starts, 36 relief) and 61.1 innings last season. Unlike the past three recommendations, Strahm has some upside for fantasy backers. However, he doesn’t carry a sure-fire rotation spot like the others, so we’ll need to wait and see. As mentioned earlier, I love me some pitchers in the NL West, and left-handers in Petco Park is usually a recipe for success. Keep an eye out for news regarding the Padres’ starting rotation, but go ahead and add Strahm to your watch list in case he earns a spot. The ADP sits at 311, so you should be able to get him late.
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Spencer Limbach is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Spencer, check out his archive and follow him @spencer_jl.
