A pair of pitchers squaring off in a projected low-scoring affair make up two-thirds of the highlighted options below. They’re joined by the slate’s biggest betting favorite. The hitter selections are made up of players from only two teams. There’s a low-cost, three-player stack and a pairing of pricey stud teammates who’ve had their names called in this piece previously.
Stream MLB games with a free ESPN+ Trial. View the Schedule 
Pitchers
Zack Wheeler (NYM): $9,700 vs. Marlins
Wheeler and the Mets are -170 betting favorites at home, per Pinnacle. Citi Field has the second lowest park factor for runs at 0.853, and it suppresses homers as well with a park factor of 0.909. The visiting Marlins aren’t just a desirable opponent to use Wheeler against, they’re the most desirable opponent for right-handed pitchers to face. According to FanGraphs, Miami ranks dead last in wRC+ (66) against righties this season. The Fish have also boosted the lines of opposing right-handed hurlers with a bloated 26.6% K% that’s third highest against righties in 2019. As for Wheeler, he coughed up 11 runs in his first two starts of the year, both against the Nationals. Since then, he’s been brilliant. In his last five starts spanning 33.0 innings, he has a 3.00 ERA (3.54 SIERA), 27.9% K%, 1.18 WHIP, and 11.5% SwStr%.
A pair of pitchers squaring off in a projected low-scoring affair make up two-thirds of the highlighted options below. They’re joined by the slate’s biggest betting favorite. The hitter selections are made up of players from only two teams. There’s a low-cost, three-player stack and a pairing of pricey stud teammates who’ve had their names called in this piece previously.
Stream MLB games with a free ESPN+ Trial. View the Schedule
Pitchers
Zack Wheeler (NYM): $9,700 vs. Marlins
Wheeler and the Mets are -170 betting favorites at home, per Pinnacle. Citi Field has the second lowest park factor for runs at 0.853, and it suppresses homers as well with a park factor of 0.909. The visiting Marlins aren’t just a desirable opponent to use Wheeler against, they’re the most desirable opponent for right-handed pitchers to face. According to FanGraphs, Miami ranks dead last in wRC+ (66) against righties this season. The Fish have also boosted the lines of opposing right-handed hurlers with a bloated 26.6% K% that’s third highest against righties in 2019. As for Wheeler, he coughed up 11 runs in his first two starts of the year, both against the Nationals. Since then, he’s been brilliant. In his last five starts spanning 33.0 innings, he has a 3.00 ERA (3.54 SIERA), 27.9% K%, 1.18 WHIP, and 11.5% SwStr%.
Jake Odorizzi (MIN): $8,800 vs. Tigers
Odorizzi’s 2.78 ERA in seven starts spanning 35.2 innings is rather nice. His 4.34 SIERA, however, is a better representation of his true skill level thus far this year. Having said that, his 26.6% K% is a head-turning number that’s supported by a career-high 12.6% SwStr%. The veteran righty has a great matchup with the visiting Tigers. Detroit’s 25th in wRC+ (81) against righties this year, and their 26.4% K% against them sits fourth highest behind the previously discussed Marlins. Detroit’s team over/under total tonight is a non-threatening 3.5 runs, and Odorizzi and the Twins are the biggest betting favorites tonight at -200.
Pablo Lopez (MIA): $8,100 at Mets
Lopez is towing the rubber opposite Wheeler, and he’ll be hard-pressed to get run support from his terrible offense. A win could be tough to come by, but he doesn’t necessarily need it to be worth his middle-tier salary. He’ll be treated to the same previously noted pitcher-friendly park factors, and the Mets are a non-intimidating opponent ranking 18th in wRC+ (91) against righties. The host Mets also have an exploitable 24.4% K% against right-handed pitchers this year, and their team over/under total of only 3.5 runs does nothing to dissuade me from using and suggesting Lopez on daily fantasy rosters tonight. As for Lopez, I wrote about him extensively earlier in the week in a season-long fantasy piece. Among qualified pitchers, Lopez’s 3.63 SIERA is tied for 22nd, and his 25.0% K% is nothing to sneeze at and validated by a solid 11.5% SwStr%.
Hitters
Chris Davis (1B – BAL): $3,100 vs. Angels
Go ahead, get the laughing out of your system. Davis endured a much-publicized hit-less streak to open the year, and his contract is arguably the worst in MLB. He got out of the slump on April 13 with a three-hit performance in Boston, and in his last 57 plate appearances starting with that night, he has a .231 ISO, .351 OBP, 133 wRC+, and a 44.4% Hard%. Yes, even bad players can have hot streaks that don’t even reach 60 plate appearances. Davis’ ability to hit the ball hard still is reason to consider him at such a tiny salary tonight, though. Among the 264 hitters with a minimum of 50 batted ball events this year, Davis’ 96.4 mph average FB/LD exit velocity is 39th, per Baseball Savant. When he lifts the ball, he can still put a charge into it. That should play well against Trevor Cahill tonight. Cahill’s ceded a .451 SLG and .342 wOBA to 274 left-handed batters faced since last year. The 31-year-old righty’s been a total train wreck this year, however, allowing a .745 SLG and .497 wOBA to 63 lefties.
Stevie Wilkerson (2B/OF – BAL): $3,500 vs. Angels
Wilkerson has hit directly before or after Davis in each of Baltimore’s games against a right-handed pitcher this month, making the duo a good pairing from a scoring correlation perspective. Wilkerson’s an older rookie (27 years of age) who was a non-prospect. He’s been a pleasant surprise on the rebuilding Orioles, and he’s sporting a .216 ISO and 129 wRC+ in 37 plate appearances against righties this year. A small sample warning is obviously in order, but he’s a cheap piece of left-handed hitting exposure to Cahill.
Jonathan Villar (2B/SS – BAL): $4,400 vs. Angels
Villar’s the most expensive left-handed (because he’s a switch-hitter) hitting exposure to Cahill, and he’s not exactly a strong correlation play with Davis and Wilkerson due to hitting much higher in the order than them. In fact, Villar kicks things off atop Baltimore’s lineup. In 114 plate appearances against righties this year, he has a .363 OBP, .170 ISO, and 122 wRC+. The host O’s have a respectable team over/under total of 4.5 runs tonight. That’s not a bad total for Baltimore’s leadoff hitter to be attached to.
Trevor Story (SS – COL): $5,600 vs. Padres
Nolan Arenado (3B – COL): $5,700 vs. Padres
When Story and Arenado are at home, they’re pricey. Of course, that’s for good reason. When they’re at home and facing a southpaw, however, they become especially enticing. The Rockies hung a dozen runs on visiting lefty Derek Holland and San Francisco’s bullpen yesterday, and Story and Arenado combined to reach base eight times. Excellence at home against southpaws is nothing new for either player. In 248 plate appearances at home against southpaws in his career (not including yesterday’s strong effort), Story’s ripped off a .397 OBP, .430 ISO, and 162 wRC+. In 299 plate appearances at Coors Field against lefties since 2016, Arenado’s mashed to the tune of .458 OBP, .403 ISO, and 192 wRC+. Eric Lauer will have his hands full with Story and Arenado, and his .338 wOBA allowed to right-handed batters since last year does little to inspire confidence he’ll have answers for keeping the power-packed duo in check.
Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Google Play | SoundCloud | Stitcher | TuneIn
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
