Monday night’s seven-game NBA slate could be a wild one with some big-name players already ruled out, such as Luka Doncic and Eric Bledsoe, and a few more to keep a close eye on such as Devin Booker and the Pistons’ big men, Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin. These injuries will open up a lot of opportunities for increased minutes and usage for a wide variety of players from each of those teams.
Note that some of the stats referenced in this article are my custom defense versus position (DvP) calculations that combines data from the season and last five games along with blending similar positions production allowed together.
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One Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo (SF/PF – MIL): $11,100 vs. DAL
If you can believe it, Antetokounmpo’s usage goes even higher than it already is when Eric Bledsoe is off the court. The absence of Luka Doncic on the other side of the court might actually hurt his value as the game is more likely to be a blowout. Antetokounmpo has a floor of about 45 DraftKings points, and he has a very high ceiling if he is forced to play 30-plus minutes in a close game. I’ll take the salary savings off James Harden ($12,900) and use Giannis as my stud of the night.
Monday night’s seven-game NBA slate could be a wild one with some big-name players already ruled out, such as Luka Doncic and Eric Bledsoe, and a few more to keep a close eye on such as Devin Booker and the Pistons’ big men, Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin. These injuries will open up a lot of opportunities for increased minutes and usage for a wide variety of players from each of those teams.
Note that some of the stats referenced in this article are my custom defense versus position (DvP) calculations that combines data from the season and last five games along with blending similar positions production allowed together.
Check out today’s NBA Sharpshooter from DraftKings
One Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo (SF/PF – MIL): $11,100 vs. DAL
If you can believe it, Antetokounmpo’s usage goes even higher than it already is when Eric Bledsoe is off the court. The absence of Luka Doncic on the other side of the court might actually hurt his value as the game is more likely to be a blowout. Antetokounmpo has a floor of about 45 DraftKings points, and he has a very high ceiling if he is forced to play 30-plus minutes in a close game. I’ll take the salary savings off James Harden ($12,900) and use Giannis as my stud of the night.
Core Plays
Ricky Rubio (PG – PHO): $7,900 vs. POR
Devin Booker missed the last game for the Suns and is considered day-to-day heading into Monday night’s matchup with the Trail Blazers. When Booker sits, Rubio sees his shot volume increase. In the last game without Booker, he put up a season-high 20 shots on his way to 25 points and 13 assists for 53.75 DK points. Monday’s matchup against Portland is expected to be a close high-scoring affair according to the Vegas line, which should mean big minutes and production for Rubio.
Kristaps Porzingis (PF/C – DAL): $7,800 at MIL
I was looking forward to the Luka Doncic versus Giannis Antetokounmpo matchup on Monday, but with Doncic’s injury, we will instead get the Porzingis versus Antetokounmpo showdown. With Doncic out most of the last game, Porzingis stepped up his play by putting up 22 points and 14 rebounds in 40 minutes. He should continue to get 20-plus shots as the focal point of the offense while Doncic is out. The Bucks’ up-tempo style gives a lot of extra possessions in the game, which has allowed the opponents’ power forwards to see increased production in rebounds (+10.6%) and assists (+13.3%).
DeMar DeRozan (SG/SF – SA): $7,400 at HOU
Speaking of up-tempo matchups, the Spurs will also see an increase in pace on Monday when they travel to Houston to face the Rockets in the game with the highest Vegas total on the slate. This should result in increased production for DeRozan as the Rockets have given up an increase in points (+18.5%) along with a small uptick across the board to shooting guards this year. DeRozan’s teammate, LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,100), is also underpriced given this matchup and his recent production.
Steven Adams (C – OKC): $6,700 vs. CHI
I always want to target using big men who are playing the Bulls. The Bulls have allowed increased production in points (+10.9%) and rebounds (+12.3%) to bigs this season. Adams has strung together three straight double-doubles while averaging 15.0 points and 11.0 rebounds for 38.7 DK pointer per game over his last eight outings. Lock him in for another double-double on Monday against the Bulls.
Value Plays
George Hill (PG/SG – MIL): $4,300 vs. DAL
The absence of Bledsoe will open up more minutes for George Hill and Donte DiVincenzo ($4,600). Both players are viable options, but I’ll give the slight edge to Hill, who is a little bit cheaper and is a more consistent veteran option to use in cash games. Hill had 11 points and five rebounds in the last game with Bledsoe out and has averaged 10.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 3.0 assists for 24.2 DK points per game over his last three outings.
Mikal Bridges (SG/SF – PHO): $4,100 vs. POR
We will need to get confirmation that Booker is out before considering Bridges. In the last game with Booker out, Bridges saw his minutes increase to 32 while putting up five points and 10 rebounds for 27 DK points. If Booker is out and he can get a few more shots to come his way, then he could be looking at a 30-plus DK point night.
Seth Curry (PG/SG – DAL): $4,000 at MIL
The loss of Doncic should free up some minutes for Curry and Jalen Brunson ($5,500). While Brunson got the extra run in the last game, he will also cost you an extra $1,500. Meanwhile, Curry has shown plenty of upside if he gets hot, as he just went for 30 points (50 DK points) two games ago against the Pistons. Wing Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,800) could also be worth considering, but I’ll look to save the salary with Curry.
Markieff Morris (PF/C – DET): $3,900 vs. WAS
The Pistons frontcourt could be value city on Monday night if both Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin are out. Morris is probably the safest of the trio of Pistons big men who would fill-in, which also includes Christian Wood ($4,500) and Thon Maker ($3,000). Morris played 27 minutes in the last game and produced a strong line with 15 points and eight rebounds on his way to 29 DK points. The matchup against the Wizards is a favorable one, as they have allowed increased points (+10.2%) and rebounds (+15.8%) to opposing big men this season.
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Brad Richter is a Featured Writer and Correspondent at FantasyPros and a contributor at DailyOverlay. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot.
