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8 Projected ADP Risers & Fallers (2020 Fantasy Baseball)

Feb 22, 2020

Bo Bichette could see his ADP skyrocket in March.

Even the newest fantasy baseball participants know that a player’s average draft position in late February is often different from his ADP in late March. But while some players see only modest differences over that four-week period, others will see their draft stock skyrocket or plummet as Spring Training gets underway.

We asked our in-house experts which players they think will see the biggest gains or losses in their ADP in the weeks leading up to the start of the season – and some of their responses might surprise you. (You’ll find our Consensus Average Draft Position numbers here.)

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Q1. Which player will see the biggest rise in ADP over the next four weeks?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3B-TOR)
Consensus ADP: 55.8

“As a massive Vlad Jr. fan I don’t want to see his ADP go any higher. Since January 1st Guerrero is the 55th player being selected in NFBC drafts. That’s pretty aggressive for someone coming off a .772 OPS without standing out in any fantasy relevant offensive category. The fantasy community is typically unforgiving when it comes to rookies who underwhelm (see: Kieboom, Carter). However, we haven’t seen that same disdain for Vladito. People want to draft him and we are now getting reports that he is ” in the best shape of his life“. Slimming down greatly helped Rafael Devers breakout last season, so it’s conceivable to think Guerrero can follow a similar path. If he gets off to a strong start in the Grapefruit League you should only expect the hype to keep growing.”
– Brandon Tuma (@toomuchtuma)

Bo Bichette (SS-TOR)
Consensus ADP: 69.2

“The hype on Bichette this offseason has been gaining helium and his ADP continues to rise in recent mock drafts. He is already slated to leadoff for a loaded Blue Jays lineup and is in line for heavy workload in 2020. Bichette slashed .311/.358/.571 with 11 homers, 21 RBI, 32 runs and four stolen bases across 196 at-bats last season. The 21-year old is currently 12th on the consensus rankings for shortstops and is being drafted roughly in rounds eight-through-nine. By the time March rolls around, it wouldn’t surprise me if his ADP skyrockets and is draft price is bumped up a couple of rounds.”
– Brad Camara (@beerad30)

Shohei Ohtani (DH/SP-LAA)
Consensus ADP: 122.0

“The 2018 Rookie of the Year and dual-threat is the obvious answer here. His current ADP is 117 but that was mainly due to concerns about his recovery from surgery and how the Angels would utilize him in their rotation. As he appears to be ahead of schedule in recovery and the team has made their plans clear for how they would work him in, you should start to see Ohtani shoot up draft boards. Joe Maddon has made it clear that Ohtani will not take the mound until at least May, but he will be manning the DH responsibilities to start the season. Once fully healthy he should be expected to be in the regular pitching rotation while batting three-to-five games a week. That type of roster flexibility and high usage in a dynamic player like Ohtani should push him up to at least the fifth round over the next few weeks.”
– Dave Kluge (@dkluge90)

Yasiel Puig (OF-FA)
Consensus ADP: 142.0
“Assuming he signs with a team that will start him five days a week, he could go 20/20 with decent counting stats. With an average ADP of 142, I’m expecting that to creep up inside the top 100. Drafters always factor in uncertainty with unsigned free agents, but Puig’s talent will play anywhere. If he goes to Colorado (the Rockies are being reported as the front runner), you’ll be even happier you snagged him early.”
– Carmen Maiorano (@cmaiorano3)

Wil Myers (1B/3B/OF-SD)
Consensus ADP: 314.6
“According to the Expert Consensus Rankings, Myers is currently sitting at 268.5, but I think we will see both his ECR and ADP rise in the coming weeks. If the rumors that he could be traded to the Boston Red Sox continue, his ADP and ECR will gradually increase. If a trade ends up happening, we’ll probably see a quick and significant spike. And the reason is simple. Although Myers is coming off of two down years, he is still on the right side of 30 and has flashed his potential in the past (hence the contract the Padres are currently trying to get off the books). A move to Boston would give Myers a change of scenery, and that scenery would just so happen to include a strong Red Sox lineup (even without Mookie Betts) and the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway Park and the other ballparks in the American League East.”
– Mike Maher (@mikemaher)

Q2. Which player will see the biggest drop in ADP over the next four weeks?

Luis Severino (SP-NYY)
Consensus ADP: 62.6
“With the news that Severino is experiencing a recurrence of last season’s forearm tightness and has been temporarily shut down, his ADP has already started to drop. Fantasy owners do not like drafting pitchers with arm injuries, and “forearm tightness” is one of the biggest red flags for a pitcher because it is often an indicator of a more significant issue. Add in the fact that Severino had this identical forearm pain back in October, and you have enough to scare off some of the more bullish fantasy baseball optimists. Severino was a popular bounce-back candidate and buy-low target coming into Spring Training, but his ADP is now likely to plummet over the next few weeks, even if he receives some encouraging test results.”
– Mike Maher (@mikemaher)

“Luis Severino was recently diagnosed with forearm soreness and will be shutdown for a few days. This is never a good sign for a pitcher, especially since Severino has been dealing with the same injury since October. He is currently 21st on the consensus rankings for pitchers and is currently being drafted in rounds seven-through-eight. With the recent news, Severino’s draft stock will take a massive hit. I can see taking a chance on him  rounds 10 or later, but due to his recent injury, fantasy owners will shy away. Unless something improves within the next few weeks, look for Severino’s ADP to plummet.”
– Brad Camara (@beerad30)

“I’m writing this on Friday afternoon so it’s possible more information becomes available by the time you’re reading this. However, things are looking bleak for Yankees right-hander Luis Severino. The 26-year-old is currently dealing with forearm soreness when throwing his changeup. He left for New York on Friday where he is expected to see “a number of specialists”. This news is particularly worrisome since Yankees manager Aaron Boone said this issue dates back to Severino’s last playoff start against the Astros. He pitched just 12 innings in the regular season last year and is already dealing with a forearm injury. The Severino stock is about to plummet.”
– Brandon Tuma (@toomuchtuma)

Eugenio Suarez (3B-CIN)
Consensus ADP: 65.8

“I think that the shoulder injury is worse than the Reds are letting on, and he will slide back at least 25 spots out of his current ADP. I don’t want to be drafting guys with injuries, so targeting a guy like Matt Chapman 25 picks later makes way more sense. Regardless of what happens, this is an extremely important Spring Training situation to monitor.”
– Carmen Maiorano (@cmaiorano3)

Luke Voit (1B-NYY)
Consensus ADP: 200.2
“Touted as a big sleeper heading into last season, Voit posted respectable numbers but failed to live up to the preseason hype. With a current ADP of 192, I expect to see him start to drop down draft boards between now and Opening Day, as he has already slid quite a bit. The 1B position is especially deep this year and in late rounds people will be more likely to roll the dice on guys like Danny Santana or Christian Walker or take the safe picks like Eric Hosmer, Joey Votto, or Daniel Murphy. Voit is kind of in the middle, not especially safe and with no huge upside and that will leave him as the forgotten man in the world of backup 1Bs.”
– Dave Kluge (@dkluge90)

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